Cycling and bicycle discussion forums. 
   Click here to join our community Log in to access your Control Panel  


Go Back   > >

Living Car Free Do you live car free or car light? Do you prefer to use alternative transportation (bicycles, walking, other human-powered or public transportation) for everyday activities whenever possible? Discuss your lifestyle here.

User Tag List

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 01-24-14, 05:06 PM   #1
Roody
Sophomoric Member
Thread Starter
 
Roody's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Dancing in Lansing
Bikes:
Posts: 23,389
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 36 Post(s)
Peak car predicted

It's inevitable, IMO, that the rise of cities will result in the decline of cars. Several recent studies reach this conclusion also. Car use will soon peak in the developing world (including China) and use has already started to decline in many of the wealthier nations (including the USA).

How will cities and countries adjust to these changing patterns? Will the bicycle play a larger role in private transportation?

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/...ation/4821423/
__________________

"Think Outside the Cage"
Roody is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-24-14, 07:13 PM   #2
gerv 
In the right lane
 
gerv's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Des Moines
Bikes: 1974 Huffy 3 speed
Posts: 9,531
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Long-term revenue growth for the industry depends on successful conquest sales and new business models which engage car-as-a–service (car sharing), not just car-as-a-product, ...
This makes complete sense, but the implications are interesting. So if you want to go to Lowe's, you'll just head down to the local Zipcar. I guess that happens nowadays... just not to me that often.

This would also have profound implication for those who identify so strongly with their automobile.
gerv is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 12:23 AM   #3
Roody
Sophomoric Member
Thread Starter
 
Roody's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Dancing in Lansing
Bikes:
Posts: 23,389
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 36 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by gerv View Post
This makes complete sense, but the implications are interesting. So if you want to go to Lowe's, you'll just head down to the local Zipcar. I guess that happens nowadays... just not to me that often.

This would also have profound implication for those who identify so strongly with their automobile.
I would love to see this go to co-operative car share clubs. IOW, a group of friends, neighbors, or co-workers all buying a car together. This could be done if states would pass laws and tax regulations to facilitate joint ownership and insurance of cars.
__________________

"Think Outside the Cage"

Last edited by Roody; 01-25-14 at 12:28 AM.
Roody is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 10:20 AM   #4
dynodonn 
Senior Member
 
dynodonn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Bikes:
Posts: 7,287
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 30 Post(s)
It's not so much the lack of space for automobiles, but other factors such as higher initial costs, high insurance premiums, high maintenance expenditures, and the ever increasing social media usage among the younger generation.


Millennials in 2014: Take My Car, Not My Phone: http://www.forbes.com/sites/michelin...-not-my-phone/

"Millennials also say that that their use of phones and other mobile devices is allowing them to cut back on their driving. About 40 percent of them say they substitute texting, email, video chats such as Skype or Google Hangout for meeting up with friends in person, according to the study."

"The survey confirmed what a number of experts have theorized: faced with high student loan bills, and diminished opportunities to land jobs, many millennials believe cars are too expensive for them to own, just yet"
dynodonn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 10:31 AM   #5
Jseis 
Grating member
 
Jseis's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: SW Washington state on the ocean!
Bikes: 1973 Motobecane Grand Jubilee, 1981 Centurion Super LeMans, 2010 Gary Fisher Wahoo, 2003 Colnago Dream Lux, 2015 Framed Bikes Minnesota 3.0, several older family Treks
Posts: 1,416
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 9 Post(s)
What about peak bike? I'd mention & suggest shoes/sandals but this is bike forum and my S.O. is trying damned hard to reach peak shoe as soon as possible.
__________________
Make Amerika Grate Again
Jseis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 10:48 AM   #6
dynodonn 
Senior Member
 
dynodonn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Bikes:
Posts: 7,287
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 30 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jseis View Post
...... my S.O. is trying damned hard to reach peak shoe as soon as possible.

Hopefully it will be done soon, since one doesn't want their shoes to end up like this.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...s-neglect.html
dynodonn is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 11:25 AM   #7
Jseis 
Grating member
 
Jseis's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: SW Washington state on the ocean!
Bikes: 1973 Motobecane Grand Jubilee, 1981 Centurion Super LeMans, 2010 Gary Fisher Wahoo, 2003 Colnago Dream Lux, 2015 Framed Bikes Minnesota 3.0, several older family Treks
Posts: 1,416
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 9 Post(s)
Ha!

I suspect Peak Bike means we could all own (in car tonnage of 1.5-2 tons) equivalents) oh say, 100-200 new bikes every 4-7 years...that's like a dozen or more new bikes every year!!! (average bike at 20-30 pounds) each if we tossed all our cars. Near two orders of magnitude more bikes. Christo, that means annual US production of bikes alone would be like 1.5 billion bikes! Clearly Peak Bike numbers potential are stratospheric.
__________________
Make Amerika Grate Again

Last edited by Jseis; 01-25-14 at 11:28 AM.
Jseis is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 11:47 AM   #8
Ekdog
Senior Member
 
Ekdog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Seville, Spain
Bikes: Brompton M6R, mountain bikes, Circe Omnis+ tandem
Posts: 4,217
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6 Post(s)
Even the CEO of Ford agrees:

More Cars in Cities “Not Going to Work”

I wonder if American industry is capable of building things like passenger trains and clean, efficient buses.
Ekdog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 01:13 PM   #9
wolfchild
Senior Member
 
wolfchild's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Mississauga/Toronto, Ontario canada
Bikes: I have 3 singlespeed/fixed gear bikes
Posts: 4,034
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 47 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ekdog View Post
I wonder if American industry is capable of building things like passenger trains and clean, efficient buses.
Sure they're capable of producing clean, fuel efficient buses and trains. But it's a very slow process which will take a very long time to implement...Here in my city all of our transit buses run on Bio-Diesel. There are also plans to electrify our commuter trains, as of right now all the locomotives run on diesel. It's a slow process because of the cost, and also there needs to be an environmental assessment done before the trains are electrified, this can take years and years.
wolfchild is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 01:19 PM   #10
cooker
Prefers Cicero
 
cooker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Toronto
Bikes: 1984 Trek 520; 1990s Peugeot (Canadian-made) rigid mountain bike; 2007 Bike Friday NWT; misc others
Posts: 10,234
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 135 Post(s)
I may have called it a bit prematurely

Quote:
Originally Posted by cooker View Post
(2007) I think we're at peak auto, or close to it. Ten years from now we'll see if I'm right. Hopefully this thread will still be archived somewhere.
cooker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 01:31 PM   #11
ironwood
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Boston area
Bikes: 1984 Bridgestone 400 1985Univega nouevo sport 650b conversion 1993b'stone RBT 1985 Schwinn Tempo
Posts: 1,041
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ekdog View Post

I wonder if American industry is capable of building things like passenger trains and clean, efficient buses.
Back in the seventies, after the Vietnam War, there was an attempt yo convert some "defense" industries to civilian products. Boeing was to build light rail cars for Boston's Green Line. It didn't work. Boeing was so used to building stuff for the Air Force on a cost plus basis, that they over enginneered the cars . The doors were so complicated they were failure prone; The result was the fifty year old cars were kept and the new ones were taken out of service.
The nextorder went to Japan.
ironwood is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 02:02 PM   #12
Ekdog
Senior Member
 
Ekdog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Seville, Spain
Bikes: Brompton M6R, mountain bikes, Circe Omnis+ tandem
Posts: 4,217
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
Sure they're capable of producing clean, fuel efficient buses and trains. But it's a very slow process which will take a very long time to implement...Here in my city all of our transit buses run on Bio-Diesel. There are also plans to electrify our commuter trains, as of right now all the locomotives run on diesel. It's a slow process because of the cost, and also there needs to be an environmental assessment done before the trains are electrified, this can take years and years.
They sure switched quickly from cars to tanks and planes in WWII.
Ekdog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 02:23 PM   #13
wolfchild
Senior Member
 
wolfchild's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Mississauga/Toronto, Ontario canada
Bikes: I have 3 singlespeed/fixed gear bikes
Posts: 4,034
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 47 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ekdog View Post
They sure switched quickly from cars to tanks and planes in WWII.
Yes , that's because there was no "red tape" BS back in the old days, so everything got done faster.
wolfchild is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 02:25 PM   #14
Ekdog
Senior Member
 
Ekdog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Seville, Spain
Bikes: Brompton M6R, mountain bikes, Circe Omnis+ tandem
Posts: 4,217
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by wolfchild View Post
Yes , that's because there was no "red tape" BS back in the old days, so everything got done faster.
What do you mean by "red tape 'BS' "? Health and safety regulations? Environmental laws?
Ekdog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 03:45 PM   #15
wolfchild
Senior Member
 
wolfchild's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Mississauga/Toronto, Ontario canada
Bikes: I have 3 singlespeed/fixed gear bikes
Posts: 4,034
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 47 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ekdog View Post
What do you mean by "red tape 'BS' "? Health and safety regulations? Environmental laws?
Any type of project nowdays has to be "studied by experts", which takes forever, with millions of $ wasted on consultants.. Then it needs to be pre-approved and then finally approved by 100 different individuals before it's given green light to go ahead. It's like that with everything, why can't people just get something done when it needs to be done ??
wolfchild is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 03:49 PM   #16
GetOuttaMyWay
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Bikes:
Posts: 45
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roody View Post
I would love to see this go to co-operative car share clubs. IOW, a group of friends, neighbors, or co-workers all buying a car together. This could be done if states would pass laws and tax regulations to facilitate joint ownership and insurance of cars.
Who says it can't be done now (w/o legislation)? Just form a LLC and have at it. The hardest part will be to get everyone to agree as to make/model and the logistics of sharing it.
GetOuttaMyWay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 04:01 PM   #17
fietsbob 
coprolite
 
fietsbob's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: NW,Oregon Coast
Bikes: 7
Posts: 18,841
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 223 Post(s)
the (theoretical) vehicle pool will of course include Utility hauling

so a Truck is available without Owning one , personally ..
fietsbob is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 04:26 PM   #18
Roody
Sophomoric Member
Thread Starter
 
Roody's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Dancing in Lansing
Bikes:
Posts: 23,389
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 36 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ekdog View Post
Even the CEO of Ford agrees:

More Cars in Cities “Not Going to Work”

I wonder if American industry is capable of building things like passenger trains and clean, efficient buses.
The car companies turned on a dime to start producing war equipment in World War II. No cars whatsoever were produced from 1943-1945, and Detroit was known as the arsenal of democracy. Supply chains and production methods are much more complex today, but the companies are starting to to respond already, according to CEO Mulally in the article you linked to:
According to the Financial Times, Mulally said....that he was interested in developments in “personal mobility” and “quality of life.” Then he seemed to indicate Ford is interested in getting into transit, car sharing, or other models that don’t align with private car ownership.

“Maybe [our focus] will be on components; maybe it’ll be on pieces of the equipment,” Mulally said. “I don’t know.”


http://dc.streetsblog.org/2014/01/22...going-to-work/
__________________

"Think Outside the Cage"
Roody is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 04:30 PM   #19
GetOuttaMyWay
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Bikes:
Posts: 45
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by fietsbob View Post
the (theoretical) vehicle pool will of course include Utility hauling

so a Truck is available without Owning one , personally ..
People can rent a truck through u-haul or other rental agencies or hire a delivery service. Hell, Home Depot will either deliver or rent you a pick up truck so that you can take big items home with you.
GetOuttaMyWay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 04:42 PM   #20
Dave Cutter
Senior Member
 
Dave Cutter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: D'uh... I am a Cutter
Bikes: '14 Trek 1.1, '10 Fuji Finest 3.0, '98 Cannondale R500, '88 Trek 360
Posts: 4,939
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 56 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jseis View Post
What about peak bike?
I am thinking I read somewhere that "peak bicycle" in America (by percentage of the population) was the late thirty's (1930's). As during that period bicycles were used by both adults and children. Whereas in the 1940's bicycle became mostly children's toys. Bicycles have since had a couple periods of popularity with adults.... with 43 million cyclist (the most ever reported) in 2010. T

oday the estimate is 39 million American cyclist.... most of which are children.
Dave Cutter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 04:42 PM   #21
GetOuttaMyWay
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Bikes:
Posts: 45
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roody View Post
The car companies turned on a dime to start producing war equipment in World War II. No cars whatsoever were produced from 1943-1945, and Detroit was known as the arsenal of democracy. Supply chains and production methods are much more complex today, but the companies are starting to to respond already, according to CEO Mulally in the article you linked to:
According to the Financial Times, Mulally said....that he was interested in developments in “personal mobility” and “quality of life.” Then he seemed to indicate Ford is interested in getting into transit, car sharing, or other models that don’t align with private car ownership.

“Maybe [our focus] will be on components; maybe it’ll be on pieces of the equipment,” Mulally said. “I don’t know.”


http://dc.streetsblog.org/2014/01/22...going-to-work/
Well of course he's looking into other sectors than just the personal auto- there is potential revenue streams in those sectors. But those streams will be there to augment/enhance the revenue from personal auto and not replace it.

Most likely, Ford is eyeballing GM and the bus market.
GetOuttaMyWay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 05:26 PM   #22
Roody
Sophomoric Member
Thread Starter
 
Roody's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Dancing in Lansing
Bikes:
Posts: 23,389
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 36 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by GetOuttaMyWay View Post
Well of course he's looking into other sectors than just the personal auto- there is potential revenue streams in those sectors. But those streams will be there to augment/enhance the revenue from personal auto and not replace it.

Most likely, Ford is eyeballing GM and the bus market.
I'm not aware that GM makes any buses?
__________________

"Think Outside the Cage"
Roody is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 05:29 PM   #23
GodsBassist
Senior Member
 
GodsBassist's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Odenton, MD
Bikes:
Posts: 660
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Cutter View Post
I am thinking I read somewhere that "peak bicycle" in America (by percentage of the population) was the late thirty's (1930's). As during that period bicycles were used by both adults and children. Whereas in the 1940's bicycle became mostly children's toys. Bicycles have since had a couple periods of popularity with adults.... with 43 million cyclist (the most ever reported) in 2010.

Today the estimate is 39 million American cyclist.... most of which are children.
Out of context this looks like a rant against cyclists. "All these dorks on bikes playing in traffic on their toys! It's so childish, grow up!"


#nobodyputsbabyinacorner
GodsBassist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-25-14, 07:57 PM   #24
Dave Cutter
Senior Member
 
Dave Cutter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2013
Location: D'uh... I am a Cutter
Bikes: '14 Trek 1.1, '10 Fuji Finest 3.0, '98 Cannondale R500, '88 Trek 360
Posts: 4,939
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 56 Post(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by GodsBassist View Post
..... this looks like a rant against cyclists.
No way! But I can't suspend my honesty.... to make a less than honest point. If we just "pretend" that bicycles have a status in America that's greater than it really is... then we can pretend anything. And.... then what would motivate us to promote real change.

I admire those you really use bicycles for transportation. I do a little.... but mostly cycling is pure enjoyment (sport) for me. Bicycle commuters are a percent [or less] around here. And after a century and a half or so of bicycling in mid-America.... as much as I love bicycles and cycling... the peak may have both come and gone.

If anything has changed with cars.... it is they're getting bigger! As the people that use them keep getting wider, and heavier. I had thought... [had convinced myself] that cars would be getting smaller by now.
Dave Cutter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-26-14, 01:38 AM   #25
Roody
Sophomoric Member
Thread Starter
 
Roody's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Dancing in Lansing
Bikes:
Posts: 23,389
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 36 Post(s)
Peak bikes? I challenge anybody to honestly tell me that they don't see more bikes now than they did 10 years ago. Forget about what you read in the WSJ, what do your own eyes tell you?
__________________

"Think Outside the Cage"
Roody is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 06:29 PM.