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What will be America's first carfree city?

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What will be America's first carfree city?

Old 03-31-15, 02:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Walter S
I think bicycles will continue to be used by a minority - particularly where significant hills are around, which means most of the world. I do think that in a real dense area you can get a whole lot of people walking. I'm thinking of districts of say, Boston or DC where there's lots of shopping and restaurants within about a 1/4? Mile radius. And once that gets a foothold, then more and more people bike too, but only so many.

I remember about 20 years ago my brother was taken in by the advertising for some sharp new lightweight bicycles. He laid down about a grand for a nice bicycle. A couple of months later he was selling it. I asked him about it and he said (half joking) that for that much money, he shouldn't have to still pedal it! He found going up the hills in his neighborhood to be difficult.

And I have to agree with him. It IS difficult! You don't just soft pedal and glide up the hills around here. The difference is that I don't mind the difficulty! If it were easy then I might not want to do it so much. I like the physical and mental challenges and the feeling that I'm keeping myself strong and enabled to enjoy nature and travel the globe cheaply.

For a lot of people (most?) exerting your muscles at 80% effort feels difficult and unpleasant. Something to be avoided if possible. Or maybe for just a minute. For me (and probably most of the people that will ever read this) it not only feels good and actually energizing, it often just moves to the back seat of my mind while I think about other things.

But to most people I'm over-the-top crazy.

I'm not saying that you won't have more cyclists. I'm just saying that getting people to walk will be a lot easier. Then the cycling crowd grows as people get more fit and are ready for that challenge (and the privilege to go about four or five times faster).

But how do you get this new car free city going? You have to interest lots of drivers in completely giving up their car cold turkey. Even when you generate interest, they'll still be scared and will chicken-out. After all, when you change jobs and move to a car free city and then decide that sucks, you've made a costly mistake. I would do it now that I know first hand what car free life is like. But frankly, it's not how I would have become car free. I've had experience with imagining what a certain set of living arrangements would be like. I've learned that the idea and the reality can be quite different. So I make changes a little at a time if possible.

So I agree with an earlier post where doubt was expressed about a truly car free city. It won't be a new city. IMO you are far more likely to see certain parts of a city become car free. But even then you're asking quite a lot. What about the people that live there and don't want that change? You could probably get away with restricting some of their routes out of and within the neighborhood. But expect a big fight if you ask everybody on a given street to give up the car.
Great post.

I don't think carfree cities will be majority bicycle cities. I would imagine something more like 70% public transit and 25% a combination of walking and cycling. I know, that only adds up to 95%, but I would expect some slippage, like tourists arriving in cars. Actually, a few cities are already well over 25% mode share for bikes and walking combined, so it really isn't unthinkable.

Some cities are great for cycling, others not so much. But it's hard to predict. Cycling is pretty popular in Minneapolis and Chicago, despite cold climates. I can't remember the names, but there are a couple towns in Scandinavia with lots of cycling even though they are very hilly.

I don't think bikes will be popular in every part of the city. Like you say, very dense areas are miserable for riding. Even in my smallish city, I prefer to walk near my house, which is in the downtown area. But what if there were no cars, and motorized transit, emergency vehicles, and delivery vehicles were all routed underground, or on elevated roads? All of a sudden, human powered travel would be VERY attractive in dense downtown districts.

Personally, I doubt if becoming carfree will happen before the infrastructure is ready for it. People cannot be expected to give up their cars unless a better replacement is available. Your brother certainly illustrates that principle.

I agree that transformation should be gradual and as nonconfrontational as possible. I'm looking at a period of 75 years or more. Although, with snowball effects it could be quicker. I also agree that only certain sections of cities will become carfree at first. But sooner or later a city will suddenly notice that almost all of it's districts are in fact carfree. They'll decide they might as well make the plunge to become totally carfree--for bragging rights if nothing else.
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Old 03-31-15, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Walter S
It very well may already be too late. From what I've come to believe, there may be a lag of a few generations in the effects of greenhouse gases. So if we cut emissions to zero now (impossible to do that or close to it) we could be living with more traumatic climate change for another hundred years and then who knows how long if ever for the effects to reverse themselves.

Melt the polar ice caps, and now they don't reflect as much radiation. Then the melted water is helping the rest of it to melt. It has a snow ball effect. Reducing to CO2 then doesn't undo that. You might need to wait twenty thousand years for an ice age.

Global warming is in a class of problems humans are not well designed for. We're pretty good at watching out for problems that are just about to nip us in the ass. Farmers have the foresight to have contingencies for a bad growing season or two. But problems that won't be upon us for a generation or two? Obfuscation and arguments and procrastination are more than enough to shutdown preventive measures until nothing can be done.
You could be right. Most of the scientific models predict that we still have a little time left for avoiding temperature rises above 2 degrees Celsius. I hope that's correct, but you could be right.

The problem is, if you're wrong, we'll kick ourselves in the ass for giving up too soon!
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Old 03-31-15, 03:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Roody
You could be right. Most of the scientific models predict that we still have a little time left for avoiding temperature rises above 2 degrees Celsius. I hope that's correct, but you could be right.

The problem is, if you're wrong, we'll kick ourselves in the ass for giving up too soon!
I'm not personally giving up. Like you say, I might be wrong. And why make a bad problem worse? I already live pretty clean compared to most folks. I don't drive, I recycle everything I can, my diet is vegetarian (add fish). My CO2 would be lower if I had solar panels or other alternatives for powering my house. Maybe I'll do that at some point. But it's still expensive and I can only do so much on my budget.

I've been pretty disappointed in our current governmental support for running a clean home - like tax credits for example. That points back to my view that humans don't deal with problems like this well.

It's 2015 now. Scientists have been warning us about this problem for at least 25 years. Last month our Congress finally recognized that climate change is real (after fighting about that for 15 years), but they still can't agree on any of the causes or what if anything should be done about it.

A problem of this scale is what governments are for. That scares me.
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Old 03-31-15, 07:17 PM
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Originally Posted by Walter S
I think bicycles will continue to be used by a minority - particularly where significant hills are around, which means most of the world. I do think that in a real dense area you can get a whole lot of people walking. I'm thinking of districts of say, Boston or DC where there's lots of shopping and restaurants within about a 1/4? Mile radius. And once that gets a foothold, then more and more people bike too, but only so many.

I remember about 20 years ago my brother was taken in by the advertising for some sharp new lightweight bicycles. He laid down about a grand for a nice bicycle. A couple of months later he was selling it. I asked him about it and he said (half joking) that for that much money, he shouldn't have to still pedal it! He found going up the hills in his neighborhood to be difficult.

And I have to agree with him. It IS difficult! You don't just soft pedal and glide up the hills around here. The difference is that I don't mind the difficulty! If it were easy then I might not want to do it so much. I like the physical and mental challenges and the feeling that I'm keeping myself strong and enabled to enjoy nature and travel the globe cheaply.

For a lot of people (most?) exerting your muscles at 80% effort feels difficult and unpleasant. Something to be avoided if possible. Or maybe for just a minute. For me (and probably most of the people that will ever read this) it not only feels good and actually energizing, it often just moves to the back seat of my mind while I think about other things.

But to most people I'm over-the-top crazy.

I'm not saying that you won't have more cyclists. I'm just saying that getting people to walk will be a lot easier. Then the cycling crowd grows as people get more fit and are ready for that challenge (and the privilege to go about four or five times faster).

But how do you get this new car free city going? You have to interest lots of drivers in completely giving up their car cold turkey. Even when you generate interest, they'll still be scared and will chicken-out. After all, when you change jobs and move to a car free city and then decide that sucks, you've made a costly mistake. I would do it now that I know first hand what car free life is like. But frankly, it's not how I would have become car free. I've had experience with imagining what a certain set of living arrangements would be like. I've learned that the idea and the reality can be quite different. So I make changes a little at a time if possible.

So I agree with an earlier post where doubt was expressed about a truly car free city. It won't be a new city. IMO you are far more likely to see certain parts of a city become car free. But even then you're asking quite a lot. What about the people that live there and don't want that change? You could probably get away with restricting some of their routes out of and within the neighborhood. But expect a big fight if you ask everybody on a given street to give up the car.
+1

I see the potential for an increase in walking ... but I don't see the potential for significant increase in cycling.

And I can see that neighbourhoods could increase their walkability ... but I have trouble seeing whole cities going that way, unless, as I mentioned earlier, it is a small town and a tourist attraction.
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Old 04-01-15, 07:30 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka
+1

I see the potential for an increase in walking ... but I don't see the potential for significant increase in cycling.

And I can see that neighbourhoods could increase their walkability ... but I have trouble seeing whole cities going that way, unless, as I mentioned earlier, it is a small town and a tourist attraction.
You might be interested in this table of modal share in various cities across the world. In many cities, especially in Europe, fewer than half of work commutes are done by car. The modal share for bikes is > 10 % in a lot of the cities. The share for walking is greater than biking, and higher than driving in a few of the cities.

Modal share - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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Old 04-01-15, 07:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Roody
You might be interested in this table of modal share in various cities across the world. In many cities, especially in Europe, fewer than half of work commutes are done by car. The modal share for bikes is > 10 % in a lot of the cities. The share for walking is greater than biking, and higher than driving in a few of the cities.

Modal share - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
What about work?


BTW - unless I've completely forgotten all my math, statistics, etc. ... 10% is still NOT a majority. It's a minority. Quite a small minority.

I've never said there are NO cyclists. I've never said that cycling will not increase. It may ... it may not. That remains to be seen. However, I have said that cycling is an activity for the minority.
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Old 04-01-15, 07:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka
What about work?


BTW - unless I've completely forgotten all my math, statistics, etc. ... 10% is still NOT a majority. It's a minority. Quite a small minority.
What about work? The figures for modal share are based on work commutes.

I didn't say anything about 10% being a majority, so sorry, I don't know what you're talking about there.
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Old 04-01-15, 07:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Roody
What about work? The figures for modal share are based on work commutes.

I didn't say anything about 10% being a majority, so I don't know what you're talking about there.
Work ... you know ... doing something for pay? What about all the work vehicles?


Sorry ... then I have no idea why you quoted me with all that about the modal share. It's certainly not something I'm interested in. Maybe you meant to quote someone else? I assumed you were showing me something about a significant increase in cycling ... or that the majority of people ride bicycles now or something to do with what I said. Guess not.
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Old 04-01-15, 08:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka
Work ... you know ... doing something for pay? What about all the work vehicles?


Sorry ... then I have no idea why you quoted me with all that about the modal share. It's certainly not something I'm interested in. Maybe you meant to quote someone else? I assumed you were showing me something about a significant increase in cycling ... or that the majority of people ride bicycles now or something to do with what I said. Guess not.
Ok then.
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Old 04-01-15, 09:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Roody
I can't remember the names, but there are a couple towns in Scandinavia with lots of cycling even though they are very hilly.
The oft-cited example is Trondheim with its famous Trampe bicycle lift.
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Old 04-01-15, 06:41 PM
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Little bit confused about the conversation with Roody late last night ... but maybe I was too tired.

Anyway, my point regarding work vehicles was this ...

Traffic is made up of:

-- commuters
-- people running errands
-- people going to events
-- people visiting each other
-- people travelling
-- probably several other reasons for driving

And also work vehicles. If you observe traffic on the busier roads in your area, you'll notice a lot of work vehicles out there. I made some observations on my way into work today.

First observation ... there were fewer vehicles because of the Easter holiday. However, there were a lot of electrical company vehicles (passenger van size). Next up were plumbing vehicles. There were several utes that looked like they were employed in construction in some way. There was a small car from a sign company. There was at least one homecare worker ... there might have been more of these, but the decal is so small, I only caught a glimpse of one. There was a Council vehicle. A cement truck. An ambulance. A few cabs.

The commute is really only one element of traffic.

This is why I suggest that if a town is going to go carfree, probably the best bet would be a small tourist town. One that wouldn't need a whole lot of work vehicles (except on occasion). One where walking to shop would be easy. One where there's a sports and fitness mentality already.

Or possibly sections of larger cities. Already many suburbs are well set up for it, almost as small towns with a shopping area, churches, libraries and everything you'd need within walking distance. You'd just need to make sure the suburb you choose for such an experiment is populated by healthy sports and fitness minded people, so that the right mindset is there. And that there is a good public transportation within and to other suburbs.
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Old 04-02-15, 08:43 AM
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Originally Posted by cooker
The oft-cited example is Trondheim with its famous Trampe bicycle lift.
Thanks for the memory!

I was thinking of that bicycle lift as a good example of the type of infrastructure that can make cycling in a hilly town more popular. (Very fun too, I'm sure.) This will also make driving a car less "necessary."

Video

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Old 04-02-15, 10:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka
This is why I suggest that if a town is going to go carfree, probably the best bet would be a small tourist town. One that wouldn't need a whole lot of work vehicles (except on occasion). One where walking to shop would be easy. One where there's a sports and fitness mentality already.
Why would more work vehicles be needed someplace because it's bigger or less tourist-oriented? If anything, I would expect more work to be required in tourist areas because the fixtures for tourists are typically maintained more meticulously. Maybe what you mean about small towns is that there are only a few work vehicles shuttling around the area, whereas in a larger area, these vehicles cross town more often to reach jobs. While that may occur in practice, there's no logical reason for it. Why not just organize the businesses so that each works only within a single zone of a larger area, thus reducing travel distances/times?

Anyway, I don't think you should count service vehicles when considering an area 'car free' or not. If everyone would get to work 'car free' and go everywhere else without driving, I would consider that area car-free even if people drive once they get to work. The question would be whether people end up driving their work vehicles around for personal reasons, which I think happens anyway when people aren't living 'car free.'
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Old 04-02-15, 10:29 AM
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Originally Posted by Machka
Little bit confused about the conversation with Roody late last night ... but maybe I was too tired.

Anyway, my point regarding work vehicles was this ...

Traffic is made up of:

-- commuters
-- people running errands
-- people going to events
-- people visiting each other
-- people travelling
-- probably several other reasons for driving

And also work vehicles. If you observe traffic on the busier roads in your area, you'll notice a lot of work vehicles out there. I made some observations on my way into work today.

First observation ... there were fewer vehicles because of the Easter holiday. However, there were a lot of electrical company vehicles (passenger van size). Next up were plumbing vehicles. There were several utes that looked like they were employed in construction in some way. There was a small car from a sign company. There was at least one homecare worker ... there might have been more of these, but the decal is so small, I only caught a glimpse of one. There was a Council vehicle. A cement truck. An ambulance. A few cabs.

The commute is really only one element of traffic.

This is why I suggest that if a town is going to go carfree, probably the best bet would be a small tourist town. One that wouldn't need a whole lot of work vehicles (except on occasion). One where walking to shop would be easy. One where there's a sports and fitness mentality already.

Or possibly sections of larger cities. Already many suburbs are well set up for it, almost as small towns with a shopping area, churches, libraries and everything you'd need within walking distance. You'd just need to make sure the suburb you choose for such an experiment is populated by healthy sports and fitness minded people, so that the right mindset is there. And that there is a good public transportation within and to other suburbs.
My assumption has been that a carfree city would not ban work vehicles. If anything, you would need more work vehicles to deliver some of the goods and services that are no longer picked up by customers in their cars.

Ideally, I think a carfree city would eventually develop some kind of freight delivery system that was less intrusive. Maybe small-scale underground trains that would deliver directly to buildings? Maybe monorail trucks that would share elevated tracks with public transit cars?
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Old 04-02-15, 04:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Roody
My assumption has been that a carfree city would not ban work vehicles. If anything, you would need more work vehicles to deliver some of the goods and services that are no longer picked up by customers in their cars.

Ideally, I think a carfree city would eventually develop some kind of freight delivery system that was less intrusive. Maybe small-scale underground trains that would deliver directly to buildings? Maybe monorail trucks that would share elevated tracks with public transit cars?
I agree. Right now there is interest in the Amazon flying delivery drone experiment, but that could get chaotic pretty fast. A neighbourhood or city designed to be car free could have underground, street level or even elevated tube-like structures for movement of bulk goods, and it could all be driverless by the time that happens. Even in the 1960s or 70s, one of the large multi-building health facilities here had automated food cart trolleys following a magnetic track in tunnels connecting the basements and using unmanned elevators to deliver food trays to the different wards.
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Old 04-02-15, 09:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Roody
My assumption has been that a carfree city would not ban work vehicles. If anything, you would need more work vehicles to deliver some of the goods and services that are no longer picked up by customers in their cars.

Ideally, I think a carfree city would eventually develop some kind of freight delivery system that was less intrusive. Maybe small-scale underground trains that would deliver directly to buildings? Maybe monorail trucks that would share elevated tracks with public transit cars?
Delivery is one type of "work vehicle" ... but there are many other kinds of work vehicles.

Go out to one of your busier roads one morning, find yourself a place to sit ... and observe the variety of work vehicles out there.

The other day, the majority of work vehicles I noticed were electricians, all presumably driving to jobs here, there, and everywhere. You can't really do that by bicycle or public transportation ...
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Old 04-02-15, 10:58 PM
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Originally Posted by Roody
NYMag.com thinks it will be Boston.

What Will Be America?s First Car-Free City? -- Next

What do you think?

Ground rule: Assume that there WILL be at least one carfree city by the end of this century. This is a chance to use our imaginations. Try to provide logical reasons for your choice, but no need for statistics.
I don't think any city will be car-free in this country, ever, but I think if any cities could pull if off, it would be these:
1. Boulder, CO
2. San Francisco
3. Seattle, WA
4. Portland, OR (very long shot)
5. Eugene
6. Los Alamos, NM

All six of these towns have several things in common: They're geographically compact, they have reasonably good weather most of the year, they have populations that are educated enough to care about environmental issues and physical fitness, and, most importantly, they have large segments of their populations that can afford to live in areas where driving a car is not necessary.
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Old 04-02-15, 11:27 PM
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Denver, Colorado. Why, you ask? Why not? Colorado seems like a pretty progressive place (in some cases) and has a strong economy which is attracting new business. So I figure that someone who is developing a car replacement might be based there. I figure whatever state houses the evolution of the car is going to also be the first to have a city that adopts it wholeheartedly. It's more likely to be a new city founded around the precepts of that technology than an existing one, though. That's based on the principle of the first car free city being car free because of technological advancement, though. Whether VTOL vehicles like the Moeller skycar "take off" (forgive the pun) leaving the roads to emergency vehicles, cargo transport, and bicyclists / pedestrians, or some other technology comes out, I think that the idea of cars being replaced by something new and better is far more likely than people collectively abandoning them in favor of bicycles as their primary means of transport.

However, if you're not looking at it from that standpoint, I do really like Detroit MI as a mad max style post apocalyptic place controlled by biker gangs where the bikes in question are bicycles. I also like San Francisco or some other Californian city as one where laws are changed forbidding cars for use in personal transport, and mass transit or bicycles are your only options.
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Old 04-05-15, 08:28 PM
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Here are some cities moving in the right direction. But none are in the U.S.

7 Cities that are starting to go car-free.
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Old 04-05-15, 10:08 PM
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Originally Posted by bragi
I don't think any city will be car-free in this country, ever, but I think if any cities could pull if off, it would be these:
1. Boulder, CO
2. San Francisco
3. Seattle, WA
4. Portland, OR (very long shot)
5. Eugene
6. Los Alamos, NM

All six of these towns have several things in common: They're geographically compact, they have reasonably good weather most of the year, they have populations that are educated enough to care about environmental issues and physical fitness, and, most importantly, they have large segments of their populations that can afford to live in areas where driving a car is not necessary.
I give San Francisco a shot. It will take a bit of cultural change, but not too much.

Eugene and Portland are so far from it that I can't conceive of it happening. Their populations are much less educated and environmentally inclined than the propaganda that emanates from them would indicate. (Some of this is due to their history as resource extraction centers.) Also, the folks with the money are very pro-car and see this as a zero sum game. Portland has been standing still for years in terms of bike usage, with almost no movement from its suburbs while Eugene and its suburbs have been going backwards. That hardly inspires confidence. Like lots of things, it could happen here, and I'd be pleased as can be, but if this is the most likely place then I guess I won't live to see it.
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Old 04-06-15, 12:41 AM
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Originally Posted by bragi
1. Boulder, CO
2. San Francisco
3. Seattle, WA
4. Portland, OR (very long shot)
5. Eugene
6. Los Alamos, NM

All six of these towns have several things in common: They're geographically compact, they have reasonably good weather most of the year, they have populations that are educated enough to care about environmental issues and physical fitness, and, most importantly, they have large segments of their populations that can afford to live in areas where driving a car is not necessary.
But which feels the most pain from traffic and the pressures automobiles create? That's what's going to sell a population on car-removal.
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Old 04-06-15, 06:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Artkansas
But which feels the most pain from traffic and the pressures automobiles create? That's what's going to sell a population on car-removal.
What statistic would reflect pain from traffic? IIRC, car commute times are longest in Atlanta and Dallas.
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Old 04-06-15, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Roody
What statistic would reflect pain from traffic? IIRC, car commute times are longest in Atlanta and Dallas.
I imagine that there are a number of indicators, commute times are one, commuting distances and average traffic speeds might be another, the price of gasoline, the price of automobiles, access to local stores, walkability indices, road conditions, taxation rates related to cars, gas and highways, neighborhood interuptions, access to public transportation, city layout, availability of parking, local terrain, weather and I'm sure there are many more.
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Old 04-06-15, 07:04 PM
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Isn't Portland Oregon the most bicycle friendly? I was just watching a documentary about it. Though car free? Unless cyclists start all moving to the same city I don't see it happening
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Old 04-06-15, 10:07 PM
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Originally Posted by gmm213
Unless cyclists start all moving to the same city I don't see it happening
Remember, the end of the century is 85 years away. I don't think all cities will be free of private vehicles, or that people in general will stop using them. However, with technological advances in communications, delivery of goods and services, entertainment, public transit and so on, that are likely to happen by then, it's completely feasible that some select cities will experiment with being car free, and yes, people interested in that option may move there.
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