Giacomo 1 

Sagan, who has been a fan favorite since he came on the scene, has decidedly fallen off the pace lately.

Last season he took a big downturn and produced far fewer wins than we are used to seeing from him, and this season is shaping up to be no better. I just watched him blow up in both the Strade Bianche and E3. In the E3 he was in the break of 3, which eventually produced the winner in Gerrant Thomas, but he blew up with only 3k's left and got swallowed up by the peloton.

I never could quite make out just what kind of rider Sagan is. He can't beat the sprinters, he can't climb with the best, he can't TT very well, and surprisingly to me anyway, he's not a classics great either, even with his power.

Any opinions?

Blue Belly

He's now a marked man & needs to find a way to overcome that. It's what makes a great cyclist.

Spacepuppy

Yeah, He's got three green jerseys, checked that box. I think that being a jack of all trades is a recipe for the results he"s achieved lately. Specializing on the classics is the way to go. I can't say for sure, but, the fame , money and pressure COULD be distracting too. Not sure either what working with/for Oleg Tinkoff is like, seemed to have a positive effect in the past or was that Riis?... Ferrari or other God forbid?

Spacepuppy

Has there been a thread on the Great White hopes that never were? not exactly sure what to search for there!

busygizmo

This and also he is not grabbing a lot of wins in lesser races.

He also has a specific skill-set that others are catching up to, namely the ability to climb really well for a sprinter. But guys like Degenkolb can climb pretty well and sprint better than him. He is rarely going to beat the Cavendish's, Kittel's or Kristoff's of the world in a sprint and he isn't strong enough to drop the strongest one-day riders, many of whom can drop him like Cancellara has done at Flanders.

He also seems to be lacking a bit of tactical savy too but sometimes that is simply someone else being stronger that day.

If he continues to train properly and this Tinkoff team situation doesn't turn into a cluster than he will get his over the coming years. I think the upper limit for him is Sean Kelly who was the greatest one-day rider since Merckx retired. He could win any one day classic, most week long stage races and even won the Vuelta once (should have had a second except an unfortunate saddle sore/infection).

He just has too many skills that translate well. He handles his bike well, is a plus sprinter and he is usually strong.

His running out of gas at the end of races could be concerning, hopefully it was just an off-chance occurrence and not something serious like a medical condition.

Also winning is hard.

chasm54

This. Unless you're Eddy Merckx, you don't win all that many. And it's easier to be a prodigy than to sustain one's performance ober many years in the teeth of severe competition.

Sagan is clearly superbly talented. But margins are tight, and the spring Classics are brutal. If he's anywhere short of his best there'll be someone to beat him, like Thomas (who has a huge engine) at the E3. At Gent-Wevelgem he got a bit unlucky, he missed the break and then was surrounded by riders who didn't want to chase down a teammate. I wouldn't write him off just yet.

hueyhoolihan

when their careers on the ascent, they are always underestimated by their competitors. then it turns around...

and yes, it was surprising that in the last 3Km of the E3 Harelbeke he had nothing left when Thomas attacked. that three-man breakaway from a long way out was impressive, regardless of who eventually won.

Giacomo 1 

All good opinions.

I also think that their are a lot of riders out there now that match-up well with him that weren't out there a few years ago. He once almost seemed alone in the multiple threat type rider, while now there seems to be a lot of them.

Degenkolb, Kwiatkowski, Gerrant Thomas, Kristoff, Ciolek, Ian Stannard are some of the names that come to mind...

chasm54

It's Geraint Thomas, not Gerrant. But Welsh names aren't exactly mainstream, I suppose...

Stannard is and has always been a massive diesel with zero acceleration. Sagan would toast him every time in any sort of sprint finish. But the harder it is, the better Stannard likes it, he's unbelievably strong.

Leinster

This. Nobody wants to work with him. But when he puts in enough to help a break get away, he can't respond to the late attacks (Thomas at E3, Kwiatkowski in Strade Bianche last year).

He's 25, so has time on his side, though. Kelly never won a monument until he was 27, and went on to finish his career with 9. Museeuw won his first at 27, finished with 6 + 1 World title. Gilbert (27, 3 + 1), Bettini (26, 5 + 2), Zabel (26, 4). Boonen and Cancellara were both 25 winning their first monuments.

I'd be worried about Sagan's form right now. Nobody would look at how he's been riding and say he's in with a shout in Flanders or Roubaix, and the mess that the Tinkoff team is currently in mustn't help matters.

The way this season is going, his best hope is to get in a break with 4 or 5 Etixx QuickStep riders and wait for them all to self destruct in the last 5km. Provided one of them isn't Cav.

qcpmsame 

Along with the above reasons, his fast start as a road pro, a few years back, woke a lot of riders up and they raised their own game. It seemed that after that first year, and the beginning of the second year, he was untouchable at times, then the other riders that are now winning, Degenkolb, Kwiatkowski, et al, began to come on stronger. Just my observations.

Bill

cthenn

Well in E3, he was 3rd strongest, but no one was touching Sky's marginal gains that day.

cthenn

Two things with Sagan; 1, he's been run into the ground since he was a teenager. He's still quite young, but has a TON of miles in his legs, much of that at the pointy end of races. 2, he doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who is maniacal about training. Think Sagan likes parties and women and too much, lol! He looks bulky right now too.

Slackerprince

I think he lacks killer instinct.
He just looks too relaxed and resigned to losing on those bunch sprints.
FWIW, I really like the guy. He's likeable, but I just don't think he's a killer.


S

Slackerprince

Case in point:




I can just laugh at this all day long.


S

hueyhoolihan

by the look on his face, i think Fabian is getting goosed by the blonde. and, in turn's got a hold of the brunette.

OTOH, i admit, it could just be my imagination...

Slackerprince

Huey, tsk, tsk. lol



S

stevegreer

I agree with much of what has already been said. He is young and still lacking in experience when compared to the likes of Cavendish and Cancellara. He is a great sprinter. There is no doubt about that. And his bike handling skills are top notch. He needs the support of his team to be in contention for wins in the big races. I think he has a bit of a "this is fun" mentality too as opposed to the "I must slay my competitors" mentality needed to win these races. I wouldn't count him out just yet.

Giacomo 1 

While I agree on your point of not counting him out just yet, I disagree with your point that he is a great sprinter.

He has never, in my recollection, beaten the top tier sprinters like Cav, Kittel, or Greipel, and I think sprinters with talents in other disciplines like Degenkolb and Kristoff are now doing exactly what we thought we would be seeing Sagan doing. I think that's why everyone is wondering about who Sagan really is...

stevegreer

True, He has not outsprinted Cav, Kittel or Greipel. Not many people can. But he has won sprints in several stages. You don't win sprints in professional cycling unless you are a great sprinter. That was my point. I agree that he needs to figure out what he wants to be. If he wants to be a sprinter, then focus on that. If he wants to be a climber, then lose some weight and focus on that. If he wants to be an all-arounder... he has a lot of work to do.

Slackerprince

I don't think he could ever be a true climber.
I think he's a classics guy.
He doesn't seem to have a problem staying with the lead group, he just needs to get more aggressive at the finish.

S

e2py

He is a very talented rider and has achieved successes that many pro riders will never achieve in their career. He found a niche by winning the green jerseys many times, including the last three TDF. That would probably satisfy many team sponsors but it ain't payin' the bills for his big contract. He is a character and no doubt good for attracting others to the sport.

It would be nice to see him have more team support towards the end of races. Too many times he seems to be on his own and I think he has simply misjudged many finishes. Time will tell if he learns how to make better split second decisions when they count - race radios can only help so much.

stevegreer

I agree. He doesn't have the body type to be a climber. He's too bulky. I've noticed that most great climbers are built like marathon runners, tall and lanky. I also think he could be a great classics rider. He should take a page from Cav's book and hide safely tucked away in the peloton to conserve as much of his energy as possible and then make his break in the last few kilometers to set himself up for the final sprint. It has worked like magic for Cav. I mean, how many TdF stages has Cav won now? 25? The guy is a beast!

Leinster

He did a much better job of staying quiet today in Flanders, but then when Kristoff and Terpstra went he was in no-man's-land. If he wants wins, he needs to be at a team that can still be supporting him in those last 20-30km. Last year he used to run out of Cannondales, this year he's running out of Tinkoffs in the closing stages.

stevegreer

I agree. He needs a team to support him if he truly wants to excel. But that would require the team manager to give him the opportunity to do so. That may be the problem as Tinkoff is going through management changes now that Riis got sacked.