Go Back  Bike Forums > Bike Forums > Professional Cycling For the Fans
Reload this Page >

Who Will Win The Tour De France?

Search
Notices
Professional Cycling For the Fans Follow the Tour de France,the Giro de Italia, the Spring Classics, or other professional cycling races? Here's your home...

Who Will Win The Tour De France?

Thread Tools
 
Search this Thread
 
Old 07-16-15, 01:57 PM
  #451  
Senior Member
 
DLBroox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Miami, FL
Posts: 1,010

Bikes: Bianchi San Jose, Dahon Mu Uno, Origami Wasp

Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 118 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 23 Times in 15 Posts
I thought Froome was a little arrogant today when he attacked and found himself alone and unable to put distance between himself and the other GC guys. Contador and Nibali looked pretty good. But why is Quintana just sitting there? Is he waiting for the Alps?
DLBroox is offline  
Old 07-16-15, 03:12 PM
  #452  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: San Francisco, CA
Posts: 465

Bikes: Trek Emonda SL build, CAAD10, Bianchi Pista '13, Litespeed Antares '03

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 52 Post(s)
Liked 4 Times in 1 Post
Originally Posted by DLBroox
I thought Froome was a little arrogant today when he attacked and found himself alone and unable to put distance between himself and the other GC guys. Contador and Nibali looked pretty good. But why is Quintana just sitting there? Is he waiting for the Alps?
Yes. I think he is waiting for the Alps. Sky has been protecting the yellow jersey for a week now and they still have a lot until the end. I think Quintana is waiting for the moment when Froome is isolated from his team. And I'm not sure that Porte and Thomas can hold this tempo until the end (later someone else fresher might replace them). Even if Sky can put someone next to Froome until the end, I think Quintana might have better chances at the end of the race. Until then he can strengthen his position on the podium.
nemeseri is offline  
Old 07-16-15, 03:34 PM
  #453  
Senior Member
 
Jed19's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 4,224
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 6 Times in 6 Posts
It is a pipe dream to think any one of the GC contenders can defeat Froome at this point. Unless something drastic happens to Froome (crash, withdrawal etc), I don't see any of his GC rivals defeating him. Then add his team and his killer instincts. Heck of a combo!.

If Froome is riding clean (a big caveat), he is one hell of a cyclist.
Jed19 is offline  
Old 07-16-15, 05:52 PM
  #454  
Senior Member
 
Giacomo 1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Queens NYC
Posts: 3,175

Bikes: Colnago Super, Basso Gap, Pogliaghi, Fabio Barecci, Torelli Pista, Miyata 1400A

Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 316 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 13 Times in 13 Posts
How in the heck did Gerrant Thomas get back in control of that race after Froome makes a silly, and yes, arrogant move past him? Ridiculous! Somebody, no, actually everybody, should have pushed the attack on Froome hard when he isolate himself for no good reason. Froome should have been made to pay for his arrogance!

I'm telling you, Valverde is in the shape of his life, and he should be the team leader. He's got a lot of pop in his legs, probably better than any of the GC contenders. Quintana hasn't shown me much after all the ballyhoo about him.

TJ looked very steady today. He said he is waiting for the Alps.

Good to see some legs and life coming back for Contador and Nibali.

Yup, good race by Rodriguez!

Wow, long stage today! I'm tired just from watching it!
__________________
It never gets easier, you just go faster. ~ Greg LeMond
Giacomo 1 is offline  
Old 07-16-15, 06:11 PM
  #455  
Other Worldly Member
 
Jseis's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: The old Northwest Coast.
Posts: 1,540

Bikes: 1973 Motobecane Grand Jubilee, 1981 Centurion Super LeMans, 2010 Gary Fisher Wahoo, 2003 Colnago Dream Lux, 2014 Giant Defy 1, 2015 Framed Bikes Minnesota 3.0, several older family Treks

Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 194 Post(s)
Liked 136 Times in 53 Posts
My read is that Quintana is running out of support while Sky's got a deep team. BMC's gaggle of TT specialists isn't really doing the job. Gotta admit it is exhausting to watch. 94 degrees to low 50's? Wow.
__________________
Make ******* Grate Cheese Again
Jseis is offline  
Old 07-16-15, 08:15 PM
  #456  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Virginia
Posts: 888
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 71 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Valverde is definitely the strongest right now, and he has been strong all season. There is still a lot of climbing. The next 4 days are not designated mountain stages but they are fairly lumpy and anything can still happen before the Alps. Something will malfunction with the Sky machine eventually... electronics failure, running out of the special sauce or the black palace is double parked and gets towed away.
sprince is offline  
Old 07-16-15, 08:48 PM
  #457  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2013
Location: location location
Posts: 3,035

Bikes: MBK Super Mirage 1991, CAAD10, Yuba Mundo Lux, and a Cannondale Criterium Single Speed

Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 344 Post(s)
Liked 297 Times in 207 Posts
Originally Posted by Giacomo 1
How in the heck did Gerrant Thomas get back in control of that race after Froome makes a silly, and yes, arrogant move past him? Ridiculous! Somebody, no, actually everybody, should have pushed the attack on Froome hard when he isolate himself for no good reason. Froome should have been made to pay for his arrogance!

I'm telling you, Valverde is in the shape of his life, and he should be the team leader. He's got a lot of pop in his legs, probably better than any of the GC contenders. Quintana hasn't shown me much after all the ballyhoo about him.
Your 2nd para is probably the answer to the first. If Valverde's legs weren't as good as they are, he would've been tasked with driving at the front and ditching Thomas when he looked slightly suspect. There was nobody in the break that another rider could point to and shout "Hey, get to work." Except Thomas.

Pierre Rolland says "the headwind helped me" stay in touch with the big dogs. If there was a headwind near the top, it really explains why none of the attacks could stick.

Last edited by Leinster; 07-16-15 at 09:03 PM.
Leinster is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 03:53 AM
  #458  
Senior Member
 
Giacomo 1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Queens NYC
Posts: 3,175

Bikes: Colnago Super, Basso Gap, Pogliaghi, Fabio Barecci, Torelli Pista, Miyata 1400A

Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 316 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 13 Times in 13 Posts
Originally Posted by sprince
Valverde is definitely the strongest right now, and he has been strong all season. There is still a lot of climbing. The next 4 days are not designated mountain stages but they are fairly lumpy and anything can still happen before the Alps.
Exactly.

These will be stages where Valverde might be able to do some damage, but will he be tasked with pacing Quintana instead of attacking?
__________________
It never gets easier, you just go faster. ~ Greg LeMond
Giacomo 1 is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 05:52 AM
  #459  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 8,515
Mentioned: 69 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 3241 Post(s)
Liked 2,512 Times in 1,510 Posts
Originally Posted by Leinster
Your 2nd para is probably the answer to the first. If Valverde's legs weren't as good as they are, he would've been tasked with driving at the front and ditching Thomas when he looked slightly suspect. There was nobody in the break that another rider could point to and shout "Hey, get to work." Except Thomas.

Pierre Rolland says "the headwind helped me" stay in touch with the big dogs. If there was a headwind near the top, it really explains why none of the attacks could stick.
I was watching the live feed page on Le Tour. I glanced at the weather in the corner to see if the breakaway was getting any help from it. It was showing 20kph blowing into the riders.
seypat is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 09:31 AM
  #460  
Senior Member
 
PepeM's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2015
Posts: 6,861
Mentioned: 180 Post(s)
Tagged: 1 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2739 Post(s)
Liked 119 Times in 59 Posts
Oooooh Sagan, second again.
PepeM is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 09:34 AM
  #461  
Senior Member
 
CafeVelo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: Ohio
Posts: 1,040

Bikes: S-Works Tarmac, Nashbar CX, Trek 2200 trainer bike, Salsa Casseroll commuter, old school FS MTB

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 31 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1 Time in 1 Post
Originally Posted by PepeM
Oooooh Sagan, second again.
Oleg will not be pleased.
CafeVelo is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 09:35 AM
  #462  
FLIR Kitten to 0.05C
 
Marcus_Ti's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Lincoln, Nebraska
Posts: 5,331

Bikes: Roadie: Seven Axiom Race Ti w/Chorus 11s. CX/Adventure: Carver Gravel Grinder w/ Di2

Mentioned: 30 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 2349 Post(s)
Liked 406 Times in 254 Posts
Originally Posted by PepeM
Oooooh Sagan, second again.
I was disappointed...I like seeing Sagan hit his handlebars in anger when he loses a sprint.
Marcus_Ti is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 09:36 AM
  #463  
Senior Member
 
WCroadie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Chester County, PA
Posts: 2,365

Bikes: 2010 Trek Madone 5.5 CAAD9

Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 1 Time in 1 Post
Happy to see GvA win a stage, he was knocking on the door for a W all season long, was so close in the spring classics... Well done today.
WCroadie is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 11:26 AM
  #464  
Full Member
 
busygizmo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 430
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 26 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 19 Times in 13 Posts
Originally Posted by Jseis
My read is that Quintana is running out of support while Sky's got a deep team. BMC's gaggle of TT specialists isn't really doing the job. Gotta admit it is exhausting to watch. 94 degrees to low 50's? Wow.
I think criticism of the makeup of BMC is unwarranted, if TJ's team hadn't done its job he probably misses the split on Stage 2 and is in 4th place right now. The reality is that when it is down to a dozen riders or less very few leaders are going to have teammates. Sanchez did a good job to stay there for a long time for TJ and their other climber (Caruso) is supposedly not feeling well but might recover for the Alps.

The teams that probably need questioning are Astana and Saxo, they seem to have a ton of climbers on their respective rosters and they weren't able to bring anyone to the tour with the right fitness to stay with their leaders. If Sky deserve credit it is for getting riders fit at the right time.

I thought the tactics were a little strange yesterday, Froome's attack seemed almost more emotional than anything. He only distanced his own teammate and Mollema who was barely hanging on. I can understand Movistar not sacrificing Valverde to set the pace set because that isn't going to do anything since Froome's tactic is already to follow strong wheels then attack. The only way it seems possible to unseat Froome is to attack repeatedly or send someone up the road from a long way out and even then the odds are real long. I don't think these displays by Saxo or Astana forcing the pace are going to do anything other than shell lesser riders but who knows, they may eventually wear Sky down and put Froome on the defensive. It was also curious to see Valverde attack when Nibali was of the front, which almost played into Sky's hands. Valverde isn't always the brightest bulb. Valverde may well be as strong or stronger than Quintana but he has a history of cracking at least one day or making a tactical blunder. Quintana seems to be mentally a lot tougher and has a history of getting stronger as the race goes along.

With only 1:12 separating places 2 through 6 the last week is going to be interesting for the podium. It would be nice to see Froome get gapped one day to make things exciting.

It’s a bit unfortunate for Greipel, and fan interest, that he got dropped today. This stage always looked like it would be the decider for the Green Jersey. I think the Tour organizers only implemented half the plan when it came to making things more difficult for Sagan to repeat. They added points for winning “sprint” stages but they didn’t put enough straightforward sprinter stages in the route.

Nice win by GVA!

8 stages left and 15 teams don’t have a stage yet. Must be some stressed out directors.
busygizmo is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 11:34 AM
  #465  
Señor Member
 
USAZorro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Hardy, VA
Posts: 17,921

Bikes: Mostly English - predominantly Raleighs

Mentioned: 70 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1491 Post(s)
Liked 1,089 Times in 637 Posts
Nibali was clearly being brought back when Valverde jumped, and it did precipitate Porte being dropped. Not a blunderous move by my reckoning.

The fact that the Tour Organizers changed the Green Jersey competition speaks volumes to just how good a rider Sagan is. I feel no sorrow at all for Greipel. Degenkolb and Cavendish both managed to not get dropped (at least not completely in Cav's case) up that hill. I think in the end, Sagan will still win, but not as comfortably as in some of the previous years. Now, they need to do more to Froome-proof the race, as that is more likely to cause interest to wane than anything else.
__________________
In search of what to search for.
USAZorro is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 11:43 AM
  #466  
Senior Member
 
79pmooney's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 12,891

Bikes: (2) ti TiCycles, 2007 w/ triple and 2011 fixed, 1979 Peter Mooney, ~1983 Trek 420 now fixed and ~1973 Raleigh Carlton Competition gravel grinder

Mentioned: 129 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4791 Post(s)
Liked 3,918 Times in 2,548 Posts
The organizers need to bring in snow for at least one mountain stage, ala Giro d'Italy '88. Can you imagine Froome staying with Andy Hampsten on tthat climb? On that descent?

Ben
79pmooney is online now  
Old 07-17-15, 11:56 AM
  #467  
Full Member
 
busygizmo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 430
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 26 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 19 Times in 13 Posts
I guess we can agree to disagree on this one. Valverde clearly helped close the gap even if it was coming down. If he had waited until Porte closed the gap before attacking he might have distanced Porte earlier and hence put Thomas in harms way earlier, then had the chance to have Quintana isolate Froome. It probably makes no difference in the end.

There were similar shenanigans going on during the Dauphine and Nibali gave Valverde a serious staredown on that occasion.

I don't know so much about Froome proofing the Tour, it may be that he is purely the strongest right now but Nibali and Contador are clearly not at their best, Contador probably because of the Giro and Nibali possibly from a less than stellar off-season. If both were in top condition things might be more interesting. Quitana would be within striking distance if not for missing the split on day 2 and he still may put everyone into difficulty the last few days.

I also think that both Saxo and Astana have the riders on their roster to put together better teams for the Tour. It was clear from the layout of the course you needed a really strong group of flatlanders to get through the first week and then some strong climbers for the rest of it. Sky is lucky, or smart in recruiting, to have a couple of riders in Porte and Thomas that can do both, at least TTT well for Porte.
busygizmo is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 11:58 AM
  #468  
Full Member
 
busygizmo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 430
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 26 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 19 Times in 13 Posts
Originally Posted by 79pmooney
The organizers need to bring in snow for at least one mountain stage, ala Giro d'Italy '88. Can you imagine Froome staying with Andy Hampsten on tthat climb? On that descent?

Ben
I was just thinking that snow or really bad weather ala the Giro last year would help Quintana. The heat sure seems to favor Froome.
busygizmo is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 02:03 PM
  #469  
Senior Member
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Virginia
Posts: 888
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 71 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 0 Times in 0 Posts
Originally Posted by busygizmo
I also think that both Saxo and Astana have the riders on their roster to put together better teams for the Tour. It was clear from the layout of the course you needed a really strong group of flatlanders to get through the first week and then some strong climbers for the rest of it. Sky is lucky, or smart in recruiting, to have a couple of riders in Porte and Thomas that can do both, at least TTT well for Porte.
Astana and Tinkoff invested heavily in the Giro. While Sky, due to bad luck or good luck depending on how you look at it, was able to save all their people until July.

The best way to Froome proof the Tour is move it to Italy, in May.
sprince is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 02:49 PM
  #470  
Senior Member
 
DLBroox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Miami, FL
Posts: 1,010

Bikes: Bianchi San Jose, Dahon Mu Uno, Origami Wasp

Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 118 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 23 Times in 15 Posts
What the heck happened to Peraud? Poor guy was a shambles after that.
DLBroox is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 03:02 PM
  #471  
GATC
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: south Puget Sound
Posts: 8,728
Mentioned: 29 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 464 Post(s)
Liked 49 Times in 27 Posts
Originally Posted by DLBroox
What the heck happened to Peraud? Poor guy was a shambles after that.
Did he have a feedzone mishap like Barguil?
HardyWeinberg is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 03:16 PM
  #472  
Senior Member
 
DLBroox's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Miami, FL
Posts: 1,010

Bikes: Bianchi San Jose, Dahon Mu Uno, Origami Wasp

Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 118 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 23 Times in 15 Posts
I just found an article online. He'd gone back to get water bottles and when he turned to look behind he must have touched a wheel and he went down. Says nothing is broken and he's going to start tomorrow.
DLBroox is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 03:21 PM
  #473  
Senior Member
 
Giacomo 1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Queens NYC
Posts: 3,175

Bikes: Colnago Super, Basso Gap, Pogliaghi, Fabio Barecci, Torelli Pista, Miyata 1400A

Mentioned: 11 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 316 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 13 Times in 13 Posts
I'm floored, the DVR cut off the last 50 meters of the race! Arrgh!

First time that's happened. Looked like it was going to be a doozy of a finish to...
__________________
It never gets easier, you just go faster. ~ Greg LeMond
Giacomo 1 is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 03:39 PM
  #474  
Full Member
 
busygizmo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 430
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 26 Post(s)
Likes: 0
Liked 19 Times in 13 Posts
Originally Posted by sprince
Astana and Tinkoff invested heavily in the Giro. While Sky, due to bad luck or good luck depending on how you look at it, was able to save all their people until July.
This is true in both cases, but I still think Sky would have just had a next man up mentality if Porte wasn't ready for the Tour. They seem to better than most of the other teams with an ability to assemble their team and train them (legitimately or otherwise) with a specific target in mind. They aren't always successful but if they hang on this year it would be 3 out of 4 years for the Tour.

I was listening to a podcast yesterday concerning team sponsorship and one person stated that 80% of the value of a top tier team is generated during the Tour. So essentially you could win everything outside of the Tour and if you don't perform during the Tour you've had a bad season for the sponsors.

With all the money Saxo spent they haven't been able to bring a single rider to support Contador late in mountain stages in either the Giro or the Tour.

Astana just seems like a mess to me, they have some supremely talented riders but crazy management and a seriously spotty record with doping cases. It does sound like Landa is going to Sky so everyone should be prepared for him doing next year what Porte is doing this year for Froome. r maybe Sky will finally have someone that can do well in the Giro.

Without really having a rider that I totally support the best I can hope for is an exciting race and this year hasn't delivered at least for the overall.
busygizmo is offline  
Old 07-17-15, 03:42 PM
  #475  
Other Worldly Member
 
Jseis's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: The old Northwest Coast.
Posts: 1,540

Bikes: 1973 Motobecane Grand Jubilee, 1981 Centurion Super LeMans, 2010 Gary Fisher Wahoo, 2003 Colnago Dream Lux, 2014 Giant Defy 1, 2015 Framed Bikes Minnesota 3.0, several older family Treks

Mentioned: 5 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 194 Post(s)
Liked 136 Times in 53 Posts
With Quintana the up and coming young GC contender and Valverde 35 years old (that'd definitely play with your mind). And with Porte rumoured going to BMC and QStep's Kwiatkowski rumored going to Sky, I'd think Movistar'd be in the serious acquisition mode for another strong man.
__________________
Make ******* Grate Cheese Again
Jseis is offline  


Contact Us - Archive - Advertising - Cookie Policy - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service -

Copyright © 2024 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.