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Who Will Win The Tour De France?

Old 07-17-15, 03:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Giacomo 1
I'm floored, the DVR cut off the last 50 meters of the race! Arrgh!

First time that's happened. Looked like it was going to be a doozy of a finish to...
They re-run it several times a day. I have my dvr recording both the live feed and one of the shorter repeats just in case, had that happen more than once in the past.

Also Steephill.tv has links that will get you the last km or last 15km.
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Old 07-17-15, 05:39 PM
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Originally Posted by DLBroox
What the heck happened to Peraud? Poor guy was a shambles after that.
Had a nasty fall (no good video of it). His leg and arm were all bloodied up.
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Old 07-17-15, 05:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Giacomo 1
I'm floored, the DVR cut off the last 50 meters of the race! Arrgh!

First time that's happened. Looked like it was going to be a doozy of a finish to...
You can watch the end on steephill.
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Old 07-17-15, 07:33 PM
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Originally Posted by busygizmo
I think criticism of the makeup of BMC is unwarranted, if TJ's team hadn't done its job he probably misses the split on Stage 2 and is in 4th place right now. The reality is that when it is down to a dozen riders or less very few leaders are going to have teammates. Sanchez did a good job to stay there for a long time for TJ and their other climber (Caruso) is supposedly not feeling well but might recover for the Alps.

The teams that probably need questioning are Astana and Saxo, they seem to have a ton of climbers on their respective rosters and they weren't able to bring anyone to the tour with the right fitness to stay with their leaders. If Sky deserve credit it is for getting riders fit at the right time.

I thought the tactics were a little strange yesterday, Froome's attack seemed almost more emotional than anything. He only distanced his own teammate and Mollema who was barely hanging on. I can understand Movistar not sacrificing Valverde to set the pace set because that isn't going to do anything since Froome's tactic is already to follow strong wheels then attack. The only way it seems possible to unseat Froome is to attack repeatedly or send someone up the road from a long way out and even then the odds are real long. I don't think these displays by Saxo or Astana forcing the pace are going to do anything other than shell lesser riders but who knows, they may eventually wear Sky down and put Froome on the defensive. It was also curious to see Valverde attack when Nibali was of the front, which almost played into Sky's hands. Valverde isn't always the brightest bulb. Valverde may well be as strong or stronger than Quintana but he has a history of cracking at least one day or making a tactical blunder. Quintana seems to be mentally a lot tougher and has a history of getting stronger as the race goes along.

With only 1:12 separating places 2 through 6 the last week is going to be interesting for the podium. It would be nice to see Froome get gapped one day to make things exciting.

It’s a bit unfortunate for Greipel, and fan interest, that he got dropped today. This stage always looked like it would be the decider for the Green Jersey. I think the Tour organizers only implemented half the plan when it came to making things more difficult for Sagan to repeat. They added points for winning “sprint” stages but they didn’t put enough straightforward sprinter stages in the route.

Nice win by GVA!

8 stages left and 15 teams don’t have a stage yet. Must be some stressed out directors.
the green bullet has made a career out of snatching punchy, short, uphill climbs for victories. agree that he usually seems
to blow up on at least one hc climb per gt. guy is pretty consistent tho. if he's in the leading group of climbers with 500m
to go, my money is on him. don't feel he is the man for the 3 week gt's but if he only concentrated on the one-day classics
and/or 5-7 day tours, he'd consistently win, place or show. i'm not totally sold on quintana. think he needs more tactical seasoning,
practice and awareness on the stages that aren't in the high mountains...i.e. the first week of the tour where most of the climbing
specialists lose too much time to seriously contend.

Last edited by diphthong; 07-17-15 at 07:36 PM.
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Old 07-17-15, 07:38 PM
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nice win by gva. had a great spring and a nice layoff pre-tour. was hoping he'd come through and he's been solid the first half of the tour.
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Old 07-17-15, 08:18 PM
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Originally Posted by busygizmo
With all the money Saxo spent they haven't been able to bring a single rider to support Contador late in mountain stages in either the Giro or the Tour.
They spent much of it on Sagan, and he's well worth what ever they are paying him in my opinion. But maybe they should have invested in a few more climbing specialists. Considering they won 2 jerseys in the tour last year, then overall for the next two grand tours, it's hard to criticize their decisions.

Originally Posted by busygizmo
Astana just seems like a mess to me, they have some supremely talented riders but crazy management and a seriously spotty record with doping cases. It does sound like Landa is going to Sky so everyone should be prepared for him doing next year what Porte is doing this year for Froome. r maybe Sky will finally have someone that can do well in the Giro.
I think Vino does a pretty good job (doping issues aside), and he and Nibali seem to be made for each other. Landa would be an idiot to go to Sky. Froome is top dog and every one else is expendable. I don't see Sky ever winning the Giro. Their strength is the supporting team and the Tour always favors the stronger team. A strong team doesn't get you quite as far in the Giro, as Astana found out the hard way this year.
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Old 07-17-15, 11:55 PM
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Originally Posted by USAZorro
Now, they need to do more to Froome-proof the race, as that is more likely to cause interest to wane than anything else.
They tried to do that by virtually eliminating Time Trials and having a bunch of stages that replicated his 2 worst days of the last 2 Tours (crosswinds in 2013 and cobbles in 2014). He's met every challenge and then some.

What really sucks about it is the dominance of Sky. If Froome was to find himself alone against all the other top contenders, it'd be an interesting race, but we know that one of Porte or Thomas will always be there to drive it along and cover/discourage attacks. And they also have Poels, Konig and Kennaugh to help out. Stannard of all people led the peloton over the Portet D'Aspet and Col De La Core.

The thing is, when one team is so much stronger than all the others, it doesn't just close down all the options, it makes all but the final climb of the day virtually pointless. There's no point in anyone attacking on the 2nd or 3rd to last climb just to get chased down in the valley straight after.
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Old 07-17-15, 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by ooga-booga
the green bullet has made a career out of snatching punchy, short, uphill climbs for victories. agree that he usually seems
to blow up on at least one hc climb per gt. guy is pretty consistent tho. if he's in the leading group of climbers with 500m
to go, my money is on him. don't feel he is the man for the 3 week gt's but if he only concentrated on the one-day classics
and/or 5-7 day tours, he'd consistently win, place or show. i'm not totally sold on quintana. think he needs more tactical seasoning,
practice and awareness on the stages that aren't in the high mountains...i.e. the first week of the tour where most of the climbing
specialists lose too much time to seriously contend.
Always been a Valverde fan from way back. The whole Operation Puerto was depressing. He seems like a real like able guy and a rider with a lot of class. It was probably hard for Movistar to make Quintana the leader. Spaniards seem to prefer Spaniads leading their teams.
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Old 07-17-15, 11:59 PM
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Originally Posted by sprince
They spent much of it on Sagan, and he's well worth what ever they are paying him in my opinion. But maybe they should have invested in a few more climbing specialists. Considering they won 2 jerseys in the tour last year, then overall for the next two grand tours, it's hard to criticize their decisions.



I think Vino does a pretty good job (doping issues aside), and he and Nibali seem to be made for each other. Landa would be an idiot to go to Sky. Froome is top dog and every one else is expendable. I don't see Sky ever winning the Giro. Their strength is the supporting team and the Tour always favors the stronger team. A strong team doesn't get you quite as far in the Giro, as Astana found out the hard way this year.
Saxo won 1 jersey at the Tour last year. Sagan was still with Cannondale at the time.

I agree about Sky being a bad move for Landa. He's good enough to lead a team now. But getting away from Astana should be his priority.
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Old 07-18-15, 12:08 AM
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Originally Posted by sprince
They spent much of it on Sagan, and he's well worth what ever they are paying him in my opinion. But maybe they should have invested in a few more climbing specialists. Considering they won 2 jerseys in the tour last year, then overall for the next two grand tours, it's hard to criticize their decisions.

I think that was a good decision, short of a couple of sprinters he looks like the most dependable and marketable rider out there. Boonen and Cancellara are nearing the end of their careers and it is possible Sagan is the next great classics rider.

I think Vino does a pretty good job (doping issues aside), and he and Nibali seem to be made for each other. Landa would be an idiot to go to Sky. Froome is top dog and every one else is expendable. I don't see Sky ever winning the Giro. Their strength is the supporting team and the Tour always favors the stronger team. A strong team doesn't get you quite as far in the Giro, as Astana found out the hard way this year.
With Vino's past the doping is hard to overlook. I guess I don't understand the need to air your grievances publicly. This goes for Tinkoff too. But maybe you're right and this is what Nibali responds too. It's understandable when riders take big money offers like Nibali and Sagan but you wonder if they wouldn't be happier in a more tranquilo team. I am curious about the Landa decision, if he did it for money or maybe they convinced him they could help him progress as a rider.
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Old 07-18-15, 03:10 AM
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Saxo were counting for a lot more out of Basso than they got. Micha has shown he's quite capable when he's going for himself. He's going to need to step up when they reach the Alps. There are still opportunities to crack Sky there.
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Old 07-18-15, 09:35 AM
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So cool to see MTN get their first TdF stage win, after their first TdF jersey. This has been a very successful tour for them.

The French keep throwing away chances. If pinot and bardet had worked together instead of marking each other, one of them could have won.

Froome was finally isolated on a climb, and while he matched Q, he wasn't dominant. A good sign heading into the Alps and week three.

TvG lost second GC, still hanging into third. Valverde is only 30 back. I think TvG can hold Valverde off in the Alps. Contador is about a minute behind TvG, and getting better each day-to-day I think he has a decent chance of making it into third.
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Old 07-18-15, 09:38 AM
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Whoa! That was a great stage, both for the win and the GC!

Where the heck did Steve Cummings come from? He looked dead and buried at the start of that climb, but literally rocketed past Pinot and Bardet with about 300 meters to go. What a great victory for him and Team Quebeka! Good to see Pinot have some luck - and legs!

Nice duel in the GC between Quintana and Froome. It looked as though Quintana was going to put some time into Froome, but Froomes steady, ugly duckling, high rpm style won the day, and I think he put another second or two into Quintana at the line. Quintana though did enough to move into second place overall, as TJ struggle to keep pace with everyone. Thought Nibali looked good there for a bit on the climb, but then fell back. Contador is not in top form.

Great stage.
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Old 07-18-15, 10:55 AM
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From a race perspective, the fact that Thomas rolled in with the Gesink/Gallopin group a minute back, and the next best Sky rider was Roche, fully 3 minutes behind Froome, was definitely encouraging in that, like I said, Sky might not be quite such an all-dominating entity. Of course, Porte's flat might have played into that. But it would be nice if the Alps became a duel between the top 5 (Froome, Quintana, Van Garderen, Valverde and Contador, in that order) without getting domestiques mixed up in everything. The Vuelta last year was some amazing racing, especially the last week, so a repeat of that would be great.

I didn't think it too crucial at the time, but the 2 minutes Quintana and Valverde lost on stage 2 now makes their deficits look very tough to manage. Valverde's been utterly brilliant this season, probably the best rider at Catalunya, winning the Ardennes Double, and now pulling out some great sprint finishes at the Tour. He has a stage win in him if he can get to Gap or Pra-Loup with the leaders.


Oh, and well done Cummings. Pulled an Argentin while Bardet and Pinot pulled a Roche/Criquelion.

Last edited by Leinster; 07-18-15 at 10:59 AM.
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Old 07-18-15, 11:51 AM
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As much as I root against Froome and don't really care for him, someone apparently threw urine in his face, that is absolutely disgusting and I hope whoever did it gets caught and prosecuted - Froome doused with urine by unruly Tour de France spectator | Cyclingnews.com
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Old 07-18-15, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Leinster
From a race perspective, the fact that Thomas rolled in with the Gesink/Gallopin group a minute back, and the next best Sky rider was Roche, fully 3 minutes behind Froome, was definitely encouraging in that, like I said, Sky might not be quite such an all-dominating entity. Of course, Porte's flat might have played into that. But it would be nice if the Alps became a duel between the top 5 (Froome, Quintana, Van Garderen, Valverde and Contador, in that order) without getting domestiques mixed up in everything. The Vuelta last year was some amazing racing, especially the last week, so a repeat of that would be great.

I didn't think it too crucial at the time, but the 2 minutes Quintana and Valverde lost on stage 2 now makes their deficits look very tough to manage. Valverde's been utterly brilliant this season, probably the best rider at Catalunya, winning the Ardennes Double, and now pulling out some great sprint finishes at the Tour. He has a stage win in him if he can get to Gap or Pra-Loup with the leaders.


Oh, and well done Cummings. Pulled an Argentin while Bardet and Pinot pulled a Roche/Criquelion.
Barring a massive race ending crash or 10 minute delaying mechanical the GC winner was decided a few days ago. Contador/Valverde can't even keep up the pace with Froome on a Cat 2 mountain...forget about attacking and doing any kind of damage. Quintana can't even attack hard enough to open and hold a single second gap on a Cat 2 mountain, although he can at least keep his wheel. GC is done, aside from the lower podium steps. The Lanterne Rouge contest is more exciting at this point.

Amazing work by Cummings. Great to see wildcard teams do well, especially when there aren't gifts being handed out.
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Old 07-18-15, 12:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti
Barring a massive race ending crash or 10 minute delaying mechanical the GC winner was decided a few days ago. Contador/Valverde can't even keep up the pace with Froome on a Cat 2 mountain...forget about attacking and doing any kind of damage. Quintana can't even attack hard enough to open and hold a single second gap on a Cat 2 mountain, although he can at least keep his wheel. GC is done, aside from the lower podium steps. The Lanterne Rouge contest is more exciting at this point.
I am begrudgingly coming around to your way of thinking.

Froome is really lights out, with or without his team around him. He even put on a kick at the end of todays stage as if to tell Quintana, "it's hopeless for you mate".

Still, some interesting racing to come though...
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Old 07-18-15, 12:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti
Barring a massive race ending crash or 10 minute delaying mechanical the GC winner was decided a few days ago. Contador/Valverde can't even keep up the pace with Froome on a Cat 2 mountain...forget about attacking and doing any kind of damage. Quintana can't even attack hard enough to open and hold a single second gap on a Cat 2 mountain, although he can at least keep his wheel. GC is done, aside from the lower podium steps. The Lanterne Rouge contest is more exciting at this point.
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbour?

The good thing about Contador is we know he isn't going to quit, no matter how unlikely his chances (IIRC, he went balls-out for the overall on the last mountain day in 2013 and ended up losing out on a possible podium spot as a result). So while the race is over as a contest, there's still some racing to be done. If a few attacks by Quintana and Valverde can isolate Froome, and he ends up in a position where he has to choose to chase one or the other, then he could have to work very hard to keep his jersey, a bit like Contador dealing with Aru and Landa in the last week of the Giro. Like Contador, he looks to have more than enough cushion to handle it, but you never know. He lost time to Nibali and Valverde (and TvG!) on the Pra-Loup stage of the Dauphine (though they both paid for that the next day) which is repeated in the Tour on Wednesday. Again, the key there was that he (and Tejay) got isolated and had to chase alone.
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Old 07-18-15, 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Leinster
Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbour?
Priceless.

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Old 07-18-15, 01:51 PM
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A few more musings on the race -

- Why didn't MTN Quebeka go after the green jersey? While Farrar is not the sprinter he once was, I think he could compete for the green.

- Where are all the American riders? Why aren't they here?

- I admit to having Hannah fatigue, but she still beats the heck out of the Michelob Ultra guy from last season!

- I really like the NBC/SN coverage of the race this season. (I know, I know, a lot of you hate it!)

-
Where is Kristoff? He was the winningest rider this season coming into the Tour.

- Does anybody like Cav?

- The huge number of British and Dutch fans that came out the past 2 seasons are making the French fans look sad in comparison.

- Who looks worse on a bike, Froome or Dan Martin?

- A lot of miles behind us, and still haven't seen a pot hole, cracked asphalt, bad patches or broken curbs. The French know how to take care of their infrastructure.

- The peloton really calmed down and settled in in the second week. The first week was a scary, hairy and nerve wracked group of riders!

- The TDF really brings this forum alive! I hope everyone sticks around for the Veulta, World Championships, and other races!

OK, done for now...
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Old 07-18-15, 01:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Caretaker
Priceless.

Yeah, I saw it as well. There's no "u" in Pearl Harbor!!!

Or were you thinking of the whole "that's way out in the Pacific not close to German-controlled airfields or carriers" thing!
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Old 07-18-15, 04:26 PM
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Originally Posted by Athens80
Yeah, I saw it as well. There's no "u" in Pearl Harbor!!!

Or were you thinking of the whole "that's way out in the Pacific not close to German-controlled airfields or carriers" thing!
Anything's possible, after all they'd won the TdF in record time the previous year.
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Old 07-18-15, 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Giacomo 1
A few more musings on the race -

- Why didn't MTN Quebeka go after the green jersey? While Farrar is not the sprinter he once was, I think he could compete for the green.

- Where are all the American riders? Why aren't they here?

- I admit to having Hannah fatigue, but she still beats the heck out of the Michelob Ultra guy from last season!

- I really like the NBC/SN coverage of the race this season. (I know, I know, a lot of you hate it!)

-
Where is Kristoff? He was the winningest rider this season coming into the Tour.

- Does anybody like Cav?

- The huge number of British and Dutch fans that came out the past 2 seasons are making the French fans look sad in comparison.

- Who looks worse on a bike, Froome or Dan Martin?

- A lot of miles behind us, and still haven't seen a pot hole, cracked asphalt, bad patches or broken curbs. The French know how to take care of their infrastructure.

- The peloton really calmed down and settled in in the second week. The first week was a scary, hairy and nerve wracked group of riders!

- The TDF really brings this forum alive! I hope everyone sticks around for the Veulta, World Championships, and other races!

OK, done for now...
I like Cav. The little, high rev, low power, low drag guy going against big powerhouses.

Farrar is not really competitive.

The American riders at the Tour are the best American riders in the world tour, and aside from TvG they aren't doing well. Talansky is a non factor. I forget who the other one is. What other Americans in the world tour could make a mark in this tour, I can't think of one. Surely not Ted King, Peter Stetina, etc.

Martin is homely on a bike, Froome is paper bag over the head ugly. But dang effective.
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Old 07-18-15, 06:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Leinster
The good thing about Contador is we know he isn't going to quit, no matter how unlikely his chances (IIRC, he went balls-out for the overall on the last mountain day in 2013 and ended up losing out on a possible podium spot as a result).
Yes, he and Sagan are the only reason to watch. He tried the Giro/Tour double in 2011 and ended up in 5th, but he did manage to overcome a huge deficit at the 2012 Vuelta with a single attack that no one expected.
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Old 07-18-15, 06:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Caretaker
Priceless.

Germans - Pearl Harbor? I must have missed school the day that was covered.
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