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Who Will Win The Tour De France?

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Who Will Win The Tour De France?

Old 07-20-15, 07:30 AM
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Here is another question for the racers. Why wouldn't a rider 10-15 minutes behind the leader try to get in the break today? Wouldn't the yellow jersey be forced to defend against that attack? Those guys sitting in 11-15 place could be right in the yellow jersey mix if that break stayed away and was successful. The peloton is 12:18 behind as I type this.
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Old 07-20-15, 08:14 AM
  #552  
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The break wouldn't be allowed get that lead if it had a rider 10-15 minutes behind on GC which would put him in the top 15.
Sagan for example is over an hour behind Froome.
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Old 07-20-15, 08:26 AM
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So at what time would the rider be be allowed to go in the break? Would Talansky at 22:18 be allowed to go? It seems like the perfect way to throw some chaos and adversity at the Sky Train. Of course, the other GC contenders would be under fire as well. But they are racing for second now anyway, so might as well take some chances.
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Old 07-20-15, 08:41 AM
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I think my question will be answered by the end of the race. Pantano keeps moving up the leaderboard. As does Pauwels.
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Old 07-20-15, 09:16 AM
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I love descent finishes.
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Old 07-20-15, 09:24 AM
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Poor Sagan. Great to watch him on that descent, though. Got me clenched up a few times seeing his lean angle and the speed carried through those bends.
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Old 07-20-15, 09:25 AM
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Uh oh, Thomas down.
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Old 07-20-15, 09:26 AM
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Originally Posted by PepeM
Uh oh, Thomas down.
Telephone pole to the head... Yikes
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Old 07-20-15, 09:28 AM
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Originally Posted by PepeM
I love descent finishes.
I do as well. Sagan came close but no cigar. Maybe he should have prayed to the God of Thunder for strength on that last descent.
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Old 07-20-15, 09:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti
Telephone pole to the head... Yikes
Now 40 sec behind, wow.

Shoved off the road by a kamikaze and into a telephone pole. gets up and carries on.
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Old 07-20-15, 09:32 AM
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Originally Posted by Steve C
Now 40 sec behind, wow.

Shoved off the road by a kamikaze and into a telephone pole. gets up and carries on.
I'm glad he's back on his bike, he easily might still need a concussion protocol after that
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Old 07-20-15, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted by seypat
So at what time would the rider be be allowed to go in the break? Would Talansky at 22:18 be allowed to go?
Probably though the break wouldn't be allowed 20 minutes.
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Old 07-20-15, 10:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Laggard
Probably though the break wouldn't be allowed 20 minutes.
Le Tour says that Pantano gained some 18 minutes in the overall and moved into the overall top 16. So you are probably right.
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Old 07-20-15, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti
I'm glad he's back on his bike, he easily might still need a concussion protocol after that
A bang to the head is chicken-feed to him. Didn't he ride the 2013 Tour with a fractured pelvis following a first day crash?
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Old 07-20-15, 10:40 AM
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Originally Posted by Marcus_Ti
I'm glad he's back on his bike, he easily might still need a concussion protocol after that
Don't know the ethics of bike racing but the least Warren Barguil could have done was help him back up
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Old 07-20-15, 11:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Steve C
Don't know the ethics of bike racing but the least Warren Barguil could have done was help him back up
He owes him a big apology for sure, but honestly, the last person I want trying to help me climb up a slope is a guy who's a bit short in the upper body strength department who's further handicapped by wearing cycling shoes and cleats when more capable alternatives are right there.
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Old 07-20-15, 01:02 PM
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Originally Posted by Rich Gibson
1. Don't be surprised to see Cav abandon...for a medical reason of course.

2. Sagan might have gotten higher in the sprint (of course not beating Greipel) except for Coquard blocking him at a critical moment. The break strategy was a very good decision. He can never beat Greipel, so padding points at the intermediate sprint helped tactically. You have to be suspicious of the Tour folks changing the rules ....trying to break Sagan's string? I hope Peter can widen the gap in the sprints in the mountains....unless the officials have front loaded the sprints ahead of the mountains (I haven't looked very deeply into the remaining stages).

Rich
Coquard wasn't "Blocking" Sagan, that was a BS move by Sagan, he should have been relegated IMO but it doesn't really matter anyway, he didn't win.

Originally Posted by seypat
Le Tour says that Pantano gained some 18 minutes in the overall and moved into the overall top 16. So you are probably right.
16th place has no affect on the winner or even the podium. The top GC teams watch and see who goes in what breaks and when the right combo is up the road, they let it go for a bit.

Also, if you are a GC contender and you get in a break, the guys in the break will often give you a hard time cause you jeopardize the break, also etiquette says if youare a threat to the GC, you don't get in the break.
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Old 07-20-15, 01:36 PM
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Warren Barguil - should be thrown out of the race.......before he kills someone. This is his 3rd (at least) incident including the huge crash that took out Fabian Cancellara in yellow. Geraint Thomas is going to feel that - should get an MRI & CAT scan to be safe - in the morning..He's lucky he could ride out of there....He should punch that guy's lights out
Now he comes up with some crazy excuse that TVG bumped his hand off brake - what for 100'?. That descent is single file in most of the turns not Nascar bump & run.
If You are that damn fast (and crazy) pedal past before turns not try to go 3 wide into apex. Then NO Class to even check on Geraint before he rode off.
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Old 07-20-15, 01:45 PM
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16th place made up 18 minutes today. If..........he were to do it on the next stage, he would take over the overall lead. I'm trying to figure out at what time gap the GC group lets a rider go. Unless they are protecting a higher rider, I would be trying to get all of my riders that are 15-25 minutes behind the yellow into the break. Team Sky would be forced to defend their position on 2 fronts. They would have to worry about losing time/the lead to the front of the race as well as the other GC contenders. That is a lot to deal with. I'm sure there is more to it than that, though.
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Old 07-20-15, 01:53 PM
  #570  
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After Q and V, the next best placed Movistar rider is 38 minutes down. Sky doesn't care about someone that far down.

I think that you get in the break and the break is allowed to take big time, only if you are so far down that the GC leaders don't care.
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Old 07-20-15, 02:26 PM
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I think the race would be more exciting without all the riderss having a radio in their ears telling them who is where and what to do. They would have to watch and look to see who makes a move and if a breakaway goes, they would just have to chase or wonder how far ahead they are.
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Old 07-20-15, 02:32 PM
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TVG may have moved into the line Barguil wanted to take, but I just watched the video of the approach to the turn, and all I saw was Barguil moving to a tighter line and not slowing down anywhere near in time to make it through it. Seriously doubt there was any ill intent, but it was absolutely reckless, and if Thomas wasn't there, pretty good chance Barguil's Tour, and possibly season and career would be over now from a bad crash that he almost certainly would have taken.
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Old 07-20-15, 03:20 PM
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Originally Posted by seypat
16th place made up 18 minutes today. If..........he were to do it on the next stage, he would take over the overall lead. I'm trying to figure out at what time gap the GC group lets a rider go. Unless they are protecting a higher rider, I would be trying to get all of my riders that are 15-25 minutes behind the yellow into the break. Team Sky would be forced to defend their position on 2 fronts.
GC positions 2-10+ are far more concerned about not letting a #16 GC rider overtake them and will work to rein in a break with a real GC threat in it. Sky can sit back and let the other teams do all the work there. All the other teams could be overtaken while Froome still held a three minute lead. So it'll (practically) never happen. That break will never be allowed. And as stated above, the rest of the attempted break will oppose a GC rider joining, because it crushes the chance for the break to succeed.

Cycling is is a great daily exercise of game theory. Teams don't devote energy to efforts with no payoffs.
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Old 07-20-15, 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Athens80
GC positions 2-10+ are far more concerned about not letting a #16 GC rider overtake them and will work to rein in a break with a real GC threat in it. Sky can sit back and let the other teams do all the work there. All the other teams could be overtaken while Froome still held a three minute lead. So it'll (practically) never happen. That break will never be allowed. And as stated above, the rest of the attempted break will oppose a GC rider joining, because it crushes the chance for the break to succeed.

Cycling is is a great daily exercise of game theory. Teams don't devote energy to efforts with no payoffs.
^^Yup this.
If 16th went up the road tomorrow Sky and Movistar and BMC etc would not let them get that much time that he would overtake their top GC guys, plus the other break mates would be telling 16 to go back. This has happened before, guys took themselves out of a break and sat up because their placing was of too much concern to the top GC teams that they were chasing, so they sat up to not ruin the chance of the rest of the guys in the break who were way further down in GC.
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Old 07-20-15, 05:24 PM
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Originally Posted by WCroadie

Also, if you are a GC contender and you get in a break, the guys in the break will often give you a hard time cause you jeopardize the break, also etiquette says if youare a threat to the GC, you don't get in the break.
Anyone recall Armstrong doing this simply to be an asshat and get back at Simeoni?

Still people defended the enormous jerk.
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