Leinster

Fantastic 2nd half by Aru. 3" behind the Dutchman on gc. Purito maybe still a wild card at 1'15, but this is a 2-horse race for the next 3 days.

If Dumoulin can attack on the descents tomorrow and Friday, he should.

PepeM

Looking at the profiles for the next days, if Dumoulin can continue to climb as well as he has, I don't see how he could be distanced on any of them. Rodriguez will have to do something special to win this one. On the other hand, three seconds is nothing. Are they still giving time bonuses for stage victories? Those might end up making all the difference.

busygizmo

There is a punchy climb on Friday. With time bonuses Aru is in with a good chance to pick up those 3 seconds.

Aru really pulled out a good ride to crack the top 10. Maijka was a bit of a surprise losing so much time.

He and Purito will have to attack from longer out if they want to move up.

Wonder if Movistar will gamble everything on a long one with either Quintana or Valverde.

Dumoulin did what he had to, now it's up to the others.

Leinster

Breaks are going to be up the road on all 3 days, so I doubt the time bonuses will come into any of them. Even if they do, Valverde will win any sprint between the GC contenders and nobody will drop him on the descents.

Dumoulin's best hope is that somebody in his team (Craddock maybe?) can hang on for grim death long enough to help reel in anyone who escapes over the top. And just watch Aru like a hawk.

PepeM

If I was Astana I wouldn't let any break get away. On the other hand, Aru should be able to make up those three seconds on that final climb on Friday, so maybe there is no need.

busygizmo

I think the time bonuses are 10, 6 and 4 seconds so Aru only needs a top 3 to take the jersey. Astana is down a couple of riders so controlling the race will be tough, but I doubt Aru misses Nibali much.

I'm sure Astana will "help" Movistar keep it together so Valverde has a chance at another stage win.

Leinster

I think if it comes down to bonus seconds, Aru won't beat Dumoulin in a sprint to the line on any of the remaining stages.

If Aru and Dumoulin aren't sprinting against each other for those bonus seconds, it means one of them is far enough ahead/behind the other that 4",6",10" don't matter.

I think Aru's best tactic is to try and use Landa et al to distance the big guy on the climbs and hold enough of a lead on him on the descent. He may get help from Purito. He'd have to offer Quintana/Valverde the stage win to get them to pitch in.

The other thing is we don't know how Dumoulin is at descending. Judging by his ride today (and in the Utrecht TT in the tour) he can handle his bike around corners. Can he do it on a road bike in an aero tuck at 80-90kmh?

diphthong

the vuelta has a recent history of the red jersey changing on the last day or two. i wouldn't crown dumoulin just yet...

Leinster

Nobody's crowning him (and he looks pretty lonely with 30k to go today) but Aru does have to distance him on the climbs and hold that lead down the other side.

patrickgm60

Wiki lists El Purito at 5'-7", 126#, but he sure looked tiny on his TT bike. I assume UCI requires TT bikes to have 700cm wheels.

Dumoulin, meanwhile, at 6'-1", 151#. (Thought i was thin/fit at 6', 165#) [sigh]

This type of style/body type matchup really brings focus on the influence that the race route has on the results. A longer ITT and/or TTT could well have sealed it for TD.

busygizmo

Tomorrow's route has a cobbled climb at the finish, probably doesn't favor Aru but it could be interesting.

Valverde and Quintana both saying race, at least for podium spots, isn't over so I'd hope and expect a big attack from one or both on Saturday, tomorrow doesn't seem as selective but could be a chance for a stage win for Valverde.

Leinster

GCN had a "Pro bike video" during the Giro, I think, that had the TT bike of that tiny French guy whose name escapes me right now, he had 650c wheels. The UCI don't require 700c wheels, they require wheels to be the same size front and back. Obviously from the POV of neutral service, team support with spare wheels etc, everybody rides 700c during road races (pointless having a flat on a 650 wheel if nobody has a spare for you), but for a TT with one moto or car riding behind, that's less of an issue.

Dumoulin was outstanding today. I think Aru's team didn't outlast the Giants by as long as he hoped they would.


I'm absolutely delighted for Roche. He doesn't win many, but he clearly came to the Vuelta with really good legs and that was an excellent performance after some bad luck earlier in the race.

Caretaker

Nice to see Nico Roche get a stage.

Still think the race will be decided on Saturday. Impressive ride by Dumoulin but the stage didn't really suit Aru. There's a couple of steep climbs in the last 50km, on Saturday that will sort out the final GC.

68venable

Looking forward to Saturday. I cant help but want Dumoulin to win.

Giacomo 1 

Now that Aru is only 3 seconds down, and unlikely to get the win, "Gulpgulpski" will be proven right.

Had Landa pulled Aru up that climb, he could have still gotten the win, but given Aru the crucial seconds he needed to get the overall. Even better, he could have let Aru have the win and the bonus seconds that went with it. Either it was pure selfishness, or it was a team blunder, but in any case, it will be the cause of Aru and Astana missing out on the overall...


But a great stage today.

All credit to all the GC riders for battling all the way to the end. Aru did all he could, but couldn't shake TD. I just don't think Dumiloun will be denied now. He is just to strong to be dropped.

I really wanted to see Zubeldia get the win. I mean he's done what, 26 GT's!? With no wins? Good grief, it had to hurt to lose this one!

Caretaker

The idea that Landa or anyone else could gift a stage win to Aru on a 7% climb followed by a descent and a 3.6km run in when Dumoulin is obviously on form, is simply ridiculous.

Leinster

I think Giacomo's referring to stage 11, when Landa won by 1:22 out of the break, ahead of Aru in 2nd charging hard up out of the peloton. Dumoulin lost 1:37 and the red jersey, and Aru got a 6" bonus for 2nd place, but if Landa had waited up for Aru (especially once he passed Boswell) he could've made him a good 5-10 seconds faster on the road, and gifted him the extra 4" for the stage win.

Of course, that all happened a week ago, and would have changed more than just the margin, it would have changed how the riders approached each stage since then. Think Dumoulin would've sat up when he gapped Aru on the descent today if he was 8 seconds down instead of 3 up?


To put the "what-ifs" into perspective, on stage 5 there was a split in the bunch between Majka in 18th and Purito in 19th. Dumoulin (15th) was in front of the split, and credited with being 2" down on Ewan. Aru (28th) was behind the split, 8" down.

Giacomo 1 

Thanks Leinster, that's what I was referring to.

Sure, there are always a lot of "what ifs" in a GT, but many are out of your control. It's the ones that you can control that really make you shake your head and ask , "why"? That move was all in Astana's hand.

Golgoski was a racer, and he said the move Landa made would have really ticked him off. I believe him. I wonder what's been said at the Astana dinner table about that stage?

Leinster

We don't know what orders Landa was/wasn't given. It was pretty late in the stage by the time Aru caught Boswell (who finished closer to Aru than Aru did to Landa), so the stage win wasn't a certainty. If they'd ordered Landa back to help Aru, and lost the stage to Sky as a result, they would've looked pretty stupid. And once Aru did pass Boswell, if Aru had been ordered to sit at the 1km flag and wait for a minute and a half, the race officials (who've already cracked down on an Astana rider in the race) might've taken a very dim view. If they'd decided to penalize Aru, say, 60 seconds, he would've lost the Vuelta right there.

Leinster

Boeckmans out of his coma and talking to family members. Excellent news.

Caretaker

Right, all this hindsight arithmetic stuff is all very entertaining but we're talking about a week of racing in the intervening period.

Caretaker

Stage 19 Spoiler Alert!

Young French Ag2r rider Gougeard wins with a solo ride out of the breakaway group.

16+ minutes later the peloton came in and Dumoulin attacked on the cobbles pulling out an extra 3 seconds on the line over Aru.

Leinster

I can't help thinking the Giant riders spent the last week looking ahead at their roadbooks going "Summit finish, cat1, cat1 summit finish, 5 cat 1's in a day, sorry Tom I don't think we'll be any use on... Waitasec, a cobbled climb that tops out 1km from the line? Tom! We can do this one! We can help you!"

TCR Rider

I really haven't been able to watch the race this week as I'm away but I did read today that Aru may be penalized or even suffer the same fate as his teammate and be thrown out of the race because he was pushed by a teamate near the end of the stage today. Is that accurate?
I hope my DVR hasn't crapped out since I've got a lot of racing to watch.

Leinster

I didn't see it on the live feed, but there are suggestions of a handsling or a push. Whatever about Nibbles' stickyicky bottle, I think a small time penalty for Aru would be more than enough. If there's evidence of it.