Lance has been both Lucky and good. Contributing to both has been great tactics by his team, which includes a lot of tactics on the road by Lance.
To me his biggest piece of luck was 1999. One has tol go back a long ways to find a tour so open. No, as in ZERO returning winners. Only a couple of men who have enve been on the podium before. Very lucky, the door was wide open. Of course everyone else in that tour had the same piece of luck. LAnce is the one who grabbed it with both hands. In 1999 Lance did not have a great team, that year the win has to be given to Lance not a better team. I have to wonder, if he had not won would he have gotten the team he has today or would he still be trying for that first win and losing out to other riders with stronger teams.
One year the tour went across a bay on a one lane road for a few miles. There was a crash. Lance lost a key team member in the crash, but a major contender was caught behind the crash, lost several minutes and was now no longer a threat. Good tactics to have Lance up front paid off. Example of good and bad at the same time.
When Beloki crashed Lance could well have gone over the top of him. Good luck he was not a foot or two closer. But an example of handling skill and quick thinking by Lance. Again a bit of both. (or for that matter Lance could well have hit a bad spot at the same time and have been helpless to use his skills). At the time of the crash Lance looked vunerable in the mountians, if the attacks had kept coming the next day. But someone had to start, Beloki seemed the most inclined to do that, but now he was gone. Lucky, but also the residue of Lance showing great tactics in the past, every one else seemed afraid to attack.
And of course the luck of staying out af any major crash. His team has done well in minimizing that risk, but they can not eliminate it.
On his tactics remember the year a group on 'non contenders' got away for over 20 minutes early on? As time was getting made up there came a point where it was clear that Lance would make up all that time, but it was not so sure for the other podium contenders. Lance and Postal were content to force the teams with riders in second and thrid position to do work on several stages to pull back that time.
Today his team is the best in terms of being able and willing to support a run for the yellow. I see that as a residual of individual effort in years past. Remember the team competition is a minor prize. Of course a truely great rider with a truely great team should be able to win both at least once in a while. But perhaps this is where Lance's luck has run out.