JamesV

Some people think that the Tour is effectively over as of the end of Stage 4. Armstrong has one minute over the field and he can't be beat in the mountains, so the theory goes.

My two cents: it ain't over yet. There are too many talented riders, riders who are younger than the not-so-young Lance, who will be eager to attack Lance in the mountains. CSC is a strong team with Basso, Julich, Zabriskie, Sastre, Voigt. T-Mobile can attack with Vinokourov and Ullrich. Phonak has Landis and Botero. Liberty surprised with a strong showing in the TTT, and they certainly can climb. Maybe Heras will have a good TdF for a change, and climb like he does in the Vuelta.

Bottom line: predicting a battle in the mountains. Lance is still a favorite to win, but he's going to have to work for it and it won't be a cakewalk.

There you have it. A two-cent analysis from an ordinary Fred

shaharidan

i'd agree if anyone ever really bothered to attack him. but it seems like in the last couple years either no one really bothers to attack hard, or there just not capable of attacking hard with the way that team pushes the pace. they may try and hit him for a few short bursts here and there but i can't remember the last time i saw anyone try and do an extended multi-day attack.
hopefully it will happen this year, the race has gotten kind of boring.
it would be nice to see CSC or T-Mobile get on the front when they hit the mountains and really push for a few days and try to wear down discovery, but i think it will end up being another year of follow the leader, with a few small attacks to see if Armstrong responds and when he does they'll just sort of give up.

duane041

So what would happen if Lance fell off his bike (a-la our President) and had a 10 minute setback? Would the other riders have a chance? I'm not too up on this 'point system' stuff. Reminds me of NASCAR, which is another point system I don't get.

Makoa

I am looking forward to a more competitive tour than last year. As long as Armstrong's competitors don't crash out, I think it's coming soon. Maybe as early as this weekend.

Remember in '03 when he was being attacked one after another in the mountains?

shaharidan

if Lance fell off his bike and had a 10 minute set back he'd be 10 minutes behind. no point system for the yellow jersey, it's all based on time. points are for the green jersey.
i do remember in 03 when he was attacked multiple times, but no one put on any real sustained attack, and even though he wasn't feeling at his best he was able to hang in. so either none of them were able to put in a real strong sustained attack, or they were just gut checking armstrong, and when he responded they didnt bother to push harder.

Dolomiti

Well Vino kept attacking, but he paid for it dearly on the Luz Ardiden stage. It's not like they have unlimited energy.

reef58

It appears everyone is going to try the same thing they have tried the past six years. It will probably work about as well. If you want to beat Lance you gotta go do it. If T Mobile took Jan, and CSC took Basso, and two teammates each and attacked they may have a chance. Go out and ride a team time trial ype race. Ride harder than than ever. Do this on a stage like today. The next day take Kloden, and Vino along with two teamamtes each. Attack attack attack. They wont do this. Everyone will say "it wont work", but their method has not worked yet they keep trying it. It would at least wear down Discovery a little. I wonder how eager the peloton would be to help Discovery chase down threats to the GC? It looks like they are happy to let the miles go by praying something happens to Lance so they can win it. We shall see.

Richard

shaharidan

i agree, it's basically what i've been saying, it's like they're more interested in protecting a top 10 position then they are in winning.
well it's his last year, maybe the race will get more interesting in the future.

BigBrooklynLou

Unfortunately no one is going to do that because it would require some coordination and teamwork between all the other teams. They would basically have to form an alliance against Discovery and I don't see them doing it. Hell, all the teams have seen what USPS/Discovery have done with their team organization model (everybody rides for ONE team leader) and they have yet to implement something similar.

I'm guessing that all the teams are waiting for Lance to leave. They'll give him his victory lap and wait till next year when they can all go after each other with whatever team model they have and have a decent chance of winning because everyone else is just as screwed up as they are.

That is of course if Discovery doesn't find a replacement for Lance to slide in his place. In which case, what we should be talking about is not Lance's 7 victories, but Discovery's 8 and counting ...

alanbikehouston

Over? Over? The Tour de France has not yet begun. The GC is decided in the mountains. This week has been the week for the "one day wonders" to play. Next week, the REAL Tour starts. The Tour will begin on the slopes of the Courchevel on July 12th. By the end of business on the 12th, it will be clear who the true contenders to win the Tour will be.

Each mountain stage will push the weak and weary further back in the GC. Then, on July 16th, a brutal "double" climb in the last fifty kilometers will sort out who remains strong enough to contend for the GC.

If the race remains close after the mountain stages, the top contenders in the GC will settle things "one on one" in the individual time trial July 23rd. If Ullrich, Vinokourov, Basso, and Armstrong remain healthy, this year may be one of the "classic" Tours.

And now, the "Tom Boonen Fan Club" will chime in with typical name-calling and various "deep thoughts".

skinnyone

Nice bait ... Well in all honesty some GC contendor needs to pull something special our of his bag.. Somebody needs to rock the boat a little else Lance is going to dance away with #7..

reef58

You are right the tour hasn't started. No one has shown an inclination that they want to win except Lance and David Z. 2000, what's the plan? Well we do nothing until the mountains then ride Lance off of our wheel there, and crush him in the TT, oh okay. 2001 what is the plan? Same as last year. And on and on. It doesn't work try something different.

Richard

1955

No inclination to win???? Did you even see the TTT ?!?!?

alanbikehouston

You have a good point. The "beat Lance in the mountains" thing has not worked. The "beat Lance in the TT thing has not worked". But, the alternatives might not be very practical. "Joe Nobody" could sneak off on a flat stage with a couple of buddies and beat the Peloton by five minutes. But, Armstrong always knows exactly where Ullrich, Vinokourov and Basso are riding. Discovery is not going to let one of those guys sneak up the road with a breakaway group.

Supposedly, the "plan" this year is to have a different contender challenge Lance in each of the harder mountain stages. The idea is that if Lance is battling all out against Ullrich on Tuesday, Lance might be too tired to battle against Vinokourov or Basso on Wednesday. Sort of like "tag team wrestling".

That "attack every day" approach might fail, but it would make for some exciting stages.

Shadco 

The problem with that approach is that all the other GC contenders would have to keep up and based on past performances they all seem to crack more often than Lance does.

You'd think after 6 years of this they would have learned and taken a different approach to team structure and mission.

Oh well if they ignore him one more year He'll just go away and they can return to their old tricks.

One definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

What happens if Disco simply plugs another strong rider in where Lance was ???

reef58

If a different GC contender attacks everyday, and it is the same guys chasing them down everyday it may soften Disco up a little. It may be a stupod idea, but at least it is something. Vino made a nice play today. Way to go!

Richard

Shadco 

Is that a spoiler??

I hope not as I've got it tivoed for when I get home.

bikerski

when you combine the argueably most super human physical specimen to ever mount a bike with total determination, single focus and superb organizational mind you have a combination most that most haven't the desire to challenge seriously. Subtract a small amount of pure talent, or focus, or organizational talent and you don't have the juggernaut that has turned the Tour De France into the Tour De Lance. Unless he becomes ill or falls off his bike, the tour is over.

skinnyone

you talking about Indurain the first line..... Very good point, but then nobody is infallible.. CSC is strong and by that I mean STRONG.. Telekom might go all guns blazing so its almost a two against one scenario. Phonak and Geroldsteiner are lying low low, I dont think either of those teams are going to stay silent... It might be better for Lance to drop the yellow jesrsey tomorrow to a GC contendor in time for the mountains...

jkoman

Disco will try and set the tempo before big climbs...kinda like a TTT. This softens up the pure climbers and takes out a little of their sting/zing. The question is??? are there enough riders now who can withstand the pressure and pain preceeding the climb to be able to attack??? If we get a few that can do it on multiple days / or climbs perhaps LA can be put under real pressure. I predict more attacks on earlier climbs, I also predict more than 1 or 2 riders may make it to pressure LA. Heras, Basso, Evans, Sastre, Mayo, GDG, Ullrich, Vino, Botero, etc... If just 2 or 3 can be there near the end...or attack and risk it all on an earlier climb to break up the Disco train...then we could see what most of us are waiting for...heres for hoping!!

JamesV

True, Lance was peerless and unbeatable at his peak. Lance, as good as he is, is not immune to the aging process. At 33 1/2 he is past his peak. Is he 98% of his former peak power? 96%? The time must be nearing where Lance's suboptimal power equals another rider's 100% peak power. When this crossover occurs, that's when Lance starts to lose.

There are hints that Lance has "lost a step." First, Lance was beaten in the ITT by Zabriskie. Second, Discovery's TTT margin of victory was much closer this year than Postal's margin last year. In 2004, Postal beat the 2nd place team (Phonak) by 67 seconds. This year, Discovery beat CSC by only 2 seconds. T-Mobile and Liberty both finished less than 67 seconds behind.

Lance remains the odds-on favorite but I think Father Time and the other riders are starting to nip at his heels.

cedo

[QUOTE=JamesV]There are hints that Lance has "lost a step." First, Lance was beaten in the ITT by Zabriskie. Second, Discovery's TTT margin of victory was much closer this year than Postal's margin last year. In 2004, Postal beat the 2nd place team (Phonak) by 67 seconds. This year, Discovery beat CSC by only 2 seconds. T-Mobile and Liberty both finished less than 67 seconds behind.QUOTE]

ITT -- Lance beat everone else except Zabriskie by almost a minute (or more). How has he lost a step?

TTT -- Other teams have realized the value of this effort for thier overall team results as well as GC contenders and have placed more focus on it. Besides, as strong as this 2005 Discovery team is, it may not be as good for TTT as last year (loss of Eki).

Dolomiti

Armstrong's trainers, who should know his body as good as anybody, said last year that his best ever form was the 2004 TDF (though maybe 2001?). It amazes me how he keeps this ability at his age. Many expected Armstrong was not going to win in 2004, because he was slower in 2003 supposedly (incorrectly ) due to aging.

JamesV

Okay, now it's over.

General classification after stage 15

1 Lance Armstrong (USA) Discovery Channel 62.09.59 (42.309 km/h)
2 Ivan Basso (Ita) Team CSC 2.46
3 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 3.09
4 Jan Ullrich (Ger) T-Mobile Team 5.58
5 Francisco Mancebo (Spa) Illes Balears-Caisse d'Epargne 6.31
6 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Gerolsteiner 7.35
7 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak Hearing Systems 9.33
8 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) T-Mobile Team 9.38

thewalrus

Still possible for basso to catch up, IF:

1) bad crash by armstrong causing mech. failure and major lost time
2) really inhuman performance by basso on the 16th-20th stages

but that's not very likely