Who would win the TDF?
Who would win the TDF?
Lance... He still has a strong engine...Riis isnt chopped liver either...
basso can't time trial well enough.
I think that Lance wins either way.
They more interesting question is, if Ullrich and Lance switch teams 7 years ago, what are the results then?
Of course, Lance's team gets the credit for a fine team time trial. But, as individuals, Basso has only been badly beaten by Lance in two stages. In the stage one time trial (no teams involved), Lance beat him by 1.26.
In Stage 9, Lance took a "rest day", and finished a relaxed six minutes behind Rasmussen. Lance did not need his team's help to finish six minutes back, it was easy to do alone. But, for unknown reasons, Basso finished 2.18 behind Lance that day, and over eight minutes behind Rasmussen. I have seen no reported reasons for Basso's disastrous performance in stage 9.
Looking at the remaining 13 stages (take out the time trials and stage 9), Basso actually is 60 seconds AHEAD of Lance.
Basso needed to do two things to win the Tour this year. Stay awake on Stage 9. And, once, just once, race to WIN on a mountain stage. Instead, Basso has modeled himself on Ullrich.
Basso announced after Stage 15, that the Tour is over. That he had lost. Can you imagine the reverse? That if Lance was three minutes behind Basso after Stage 15, that Lance would say "I give up"? Lance's greatest gift was not his legs. It was his supreme self-confidence/arrogance/obsession with winning.
Lance has said for years that Ullrich has the best physical gifts of any cyclist. Yet Lance beats Ullrich year after year. Basso has demonstrated amazing physical prowess. But, is that enough to win the Tour?
Last edited by alanbikehouston; 07-21-05 at 09:40 PM.
i think this is one of those things that lance does so well. he is good enough to catch most attacks himself, ride fast enough to burn out everyone else, which by default makes riders follow his lead. it's the ideal situation. as we saw in stage 14 with ullrich, you can attack but if you're not strong enough you end up losing more time when you crack and fall off the back. since lance isn't going to let basso or ullrich breakaway, they're kind of screwed no matter what they do. either pace and not lose too much time, or attack and risk losing even more.Originally Posted by alanbikehouston
I agree that Lance would still take it but let me ask you this. How close would this tour be is Johan was managing T-Mobile? I believe Lance would still come out on top but it would be a crazy event.
Yes, Lance is a master at controlling how his key opponents race. But, this tactic works well because of Lance's OTHER tactic: convincing other riders that Lance can not be beaten...they are only riding for second place. Lance's outstanding performance on Stage 1 was a psychological blow to riders who had spent months working on their time trialing skills, thinking they had narrowed the gap between themselves and Lance. So, day one, Lance proves the gap was still there. Psychologically, Ullrich may have given up on winning the Tour the moment Lance passed him in the time trial.Originally Posted by timmhaan
And, in the mountains, any time that Basso has gotten even a few bike lengths ahead of Lance, Lance pushes past him again, and looks relaxed while doing so. He convinces his opponents that no matter how hard they try, they can't beat him. So, by Stage 16, they have stopped trying. He wins the Tour in the minds of his opponents, even while there are still hundreds of miles to ride before Paris.
I really don't know what you expect these other riders to do. Basso is no quitter. He tried and tried, but Lance is a better TDF rider than Basso, or anyone else. Remember this is a bike race. When a rider attacks, and Lance closes the gap what more can he do? Short of the pump in the spokes trick he is out of options, and it does not mean that he is a quitter.
I really don't understand calling all of the big GC contenders quitters. They have done all they can, and Lance still has a commanding lead. Maybe they are realist.
The people who call them quitters and underachievers are armchair losers compared to the people they criticize. I watched this year as more attacks than ever were launched...when they are countered immediately they don't look impressive.The attacks seemed to be too much for all but a couple of the best riders in the world. Basso, Vino, Ullrich rode their butts off this year and I appreciate their effort. Imagine next year...will all the critics call them losers because LA isn't there...maybe the tour should just shut down because other than LA it's just a bunch of wanna-be's who don't know how to attack. I know most real riders don't feel like this. We give LA the credit he deserves rather than bashing the others.
The doer and the thinker, no allowance for the other
As the failing light illuminates the mercenaries creed
Or, maybe Lance looks relaxed pushing past Basso because he IS relaxed. And the reason for the "psychological" blow in the opening prologue was that he was physically better than them. On the prologue, TTT, ITT, mountains, he is better than them. Just because somebody cracked Indurain, doesn't mean that all they have to do is try and it will work.Originally Posted by alanbikehouston
well, the psychology is something that has been reported on. i've read that he calls his opponents up during the off season to psych them out. he pretty much turns his back on riders who leave his team, he wins stages to prove points, etc. so he does use psychological tactics along with simply out riding people. it really seems that he is out to crush his opponents, not just physically but mentally as well.
Lance by seconds. The Blue Train does more work then any combination of 3 teams.
We must be watching different tours. If you check your Betamax you'll find you've been watching the 2004 Tour, where Basso was just happy to be there. In the one I've been watching (2005) Basso has attacked repeatedly and has created some big gaps, only to be chased down by Lance, who is clearly as strong or stronger.Originally Posted by alanbikehouston
Race to win? What the heck do you expect him to do? Take his "Underdog Super Energy Pill"? Start channeling Marco Pantani? Have Riis run Lance down with the team car?
Basso only needed to do ONE thing to win the tour this year, but the guys that hit Nancy Kerrigan on the knees with the pipe are still doing time.
Does Ivan get to date Cheryl?
That could make or break things....
Originally Posted by divekrb
This actually made me laugh out loud
1999 GT Xizang Ti
"i recieved an infraction"
...and this was even funnier.Originally Posted by divekrb
This didn't make any sense to me, as Basso has never finished with a gap over Lance, so no way to have gained 60 seconds.Originally Posted by alanbikehouston
I'm not sure where you got your times for stage 9, but LA an Basso both came in 6:04 behind Raz.
Basso lost 1:24 in the time trial, :02 in the TTT, 1:02 in stage 10 plus time bonus for LA's second place(12 seconds), 2 seconds in stage 14 plus the difference for time bonus from 2nd to 3rd place (LA 2nd, Basso 3rd, which is 6 seconds.) That adds up to the 2:46 deficit.
Was it ten, not nine where Basso lost time? The bottom line: it appears that were only two days prior to Stage 15 where Lance was clearly stronger than Basso. So, Basso's announcement after Tour 15 that "the race is over" seemed premature. His self-confidence seemed weak at a time when his legs were still strong.Originally Posted by Crack'n'fail
If we were compelled to bet the family farm on who is most likely to win the 2006 TdF, I suspect most of us would pick Basso. But, I'm left wondering if Basso would pick Basso. If he doesn't think he can win, well...
right, the race against the clock and the only day in the whole Tour that Lance actually went on the attack. LA has been riding defensively ever since, not because he can't attack, but because it doesn't make any sense to.Originally Posted by alanbikehouston
I like Basso, but look at what's happening. He and Ullrich have attacked, Lance responds and then ends up taking pulls to help his "friends" get time over Raz who is challenging them for those last two podium spots. The only time they got any kind of gap on LA was when Basso, Vino and Ullrich were all taking turns attacking. Lance let them get away and get into a group and then bridged the gap like they were sitting still leaving everyone else behind him. This neutralized the constant attacks and then put them all into a mano a mano battle to the top.
Maybe Basso really is equally as strong in the mountains, but we'll never know for sure because Lance was never in a position where he needed to flex his muscle. No way to know if he had more to give or not.