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Old 06-25-06, 12:12 AM   #1
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Stage 10: Cambo-les-Bains - Pau

Stage 10: Cambo-les-Bains - Pau, 193 km

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Old 07-06-06, 09:04 PM   #2
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This is where the brown stuff hits the fan. DS's will have a hell of a time trying to decide whether an early break is worth an reaction. GC contenders, will NOT be showing any cards......

At least that's my prediction.
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Old 07-06-06, 09:24 PM   #3
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lol he said brown stuff
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Old 07-07-06, 12:33 PM   #4
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With 35 KOM points on offer for the last two climbs, this is where we'll see the real fight for the Maillot a Pois begin.

Last edited by platypus; 07-07-06 at 05:49 PM.
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Old 07-10-06, 10:53 AM   #5
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I think the final descent is too long to put major time in any GC contender here.

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Old 07-10-06, 11:19 AM   #6
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Bad things happen on the road to Pau.
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Old 07-10-06, 11:26 AM   #7
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If I'm Savoldelli, I attack on the last climb and then hope to maintain any advantage on the descent.
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Old 07-10-06, 03:37 PM   #8
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Originally Posted by acape
If I'm Savoldelli, I attack on the last climb and then hope to maintain any advantage on the descent.
Hmmmm, last climb not tough enough for a first mountain stage (still a lot of heroes around then), then too far away from finish. I see a group of about 10 riders (no GC contenders) start, among them at least 5 or 6 Spaniards. If they start the last climb with 7 minutes ahead of peloton, they'll have a chance. Actually, this would be the ideal stage for a guy like Jens Voigt. And Moreau...heyhey, this is a déja vu. Voigt and Moreau, 2005, chasing Rasmussen, and helping each other. Rasmussen won the stage, Voigt got yeloow jersey, Moreau was happy to become second overall. I even remember one of the 2 (Moreau or Voigt) having a puncture, and the other waiting for him on the flat in the last 50 kilometres. Epic.
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Old 07-10-06, 07:04 PM   #9
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I doubt if Moreau is given the opportunity this year. I think it would be a big mistake by the GC guys.

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Old 07-11-06, 03:46 AM   #10
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Do see hills .
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Old 07-11-06, 05:04 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reef58
I doubt if Moreau is given the opportunity this year. I think it would be a big mistake by the GC guys.

Richard
I think Moreau has a better shot at getting away from the GC contenders during stage 11, so I think he'll hang back on stage 10 to be fresh for 11.

Voigt will be on the break, along with the usual polka dot wantabes: Pineau, De La Fuente, Wemann, Hernandez, Boogerd, Totshing, along with true contendor Rasmussen, Mayo, and Periero if they DO delay their attacks till Thursday.

Thor on the first intermediate sprint.

Edit: The dot contenders WILL be there if delay their attacks till Thursday.
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Old 07-11-06, 07:55 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by meb
I think Moreau has a better shot at getting away from the GC contenders during stage 11, so I think he'll hang back on stage 10 to be fresh for 11.

Voigt will be on the break, along with the usual polka dot wantabes: Pineau, De La Fuente, Wemann, Hernandez, Boogerd, Totshing, along with true contendor Rasmussen, Mayo, and Periero if they DO delay their attacks till Thursday.

Thor on the first intermediate sprint.

Edit: The dot contenders WILL be there if delay their attacks till Thursday.
That's my point. I do not believe Moreau is after the GC. He must sense he is too limited for it. I am still convinced he's after the polka. now that Virenque is out of the way, and last year he had to leave it to Rasmussen.

Polka + Mountain stage for Moreau. Best chances to get it is tomorrow, because he is still in good shape. who knows what he'll look like on Thursday...Moreau never looked good in the Alpes either (but could be wrong there) so I don't think he will wait for 3rd week.
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Old 07-11-06, 02:13 PM   #13
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My guess: Moreau or Phil Gilbert or Mayo.
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Old 07-11-06, 05:08 PM   #14
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Does T-Mobile work to keep yellow, or do they change gears and work for Kloden? I can't wait to see.

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Old 07-11-06, 05:44 PM   #15
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If Mayo is going to show anything it will start here.
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Old 07-11-06, 06:05 PM   #16
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This isn't a stage for Mayo. I can see his scrawny butt holding off the pack for 30 kilometers on a downhill. That would be special.

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Old 07-11-06, 06:26 PM   #17
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Good point Richard.
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Old 07-11-06, 07:52 PM   #18
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This could be a surprise if they can get organized. There's 2 flatish stretches of 20k after the HC climb. If a group can stay together to help each other through those, it can take big time on the last 2 climbs
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Old 07-11-06, 08:44 PM   #19
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Really a hard stage to call. Too many sub plots, with KOM points etc..... But I'm looking to someone other than Tmob or Phonak to try and throw 2 or 3 riders up the road. This could be a do or die deal for Disco, especially if they get someone like Evans or Menchov in a mix.....
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Old 07-11-06, 10:16 PM   #20
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One of the B-level climbers with little GC prospects will win this stage I reckon as part of a multi-rider breakaway. All the A-level ones will be too busy eye-balling eachother and not wanting to go too hard so early in the hills.
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Old 07-11-06, 10:18 PM   #21
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Popovych is gonna go.
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Old 07-11-06, 10:42 PM   #22
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Quote:
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One of the B-level climbers with little GC prospects will win this stage I reckon as part of a multi-rider breakaway. All the A-level ones will be too busy eye-balling eachother and not wanting to go too hard so early in the hills.
I agree - this is the most likely scenario. None of the "real" GC contenders (whoever that may turn out to be!) will want to risk burning out too early on the first mountain stage, with much tougher days in the mountains still to come.

But a breakaway that succeeds could actually set up a B-level climber as a GC contender, if his team is ultimately strong enough, given how wide open the field seems to be at this point. In any event, the strategies could be fascinating starting tomorrow.
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Old 07-11-06, 10:44 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reef58
This isn't a stage for Mayo. I can see his scrawny butt holding off the pack for 30 kilometers on a downhill. That would be special.

Richard
Right. Stage 11 is much better suited for polka data specialist to get big points.
And 10 is even less of an opportunity for the GC contendors with that long downhill finish followed by the day killer stage.

I think of Mayo as too far behind to contend for the GC so now think he'll try for the dots while also trying for a top 10 in GC. That long downhill is after the last climber points so the polka dot specialists needn't worry as much about that as the GC contenders.
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Old 07-12-06, 02:56 AM   #24
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McEwen for the win. Oops, my mistake, got a flat stage hangover.
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Old 07-12-06, 03:33 AM   #25
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McEwens time is over...Evans time has just began .
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