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Stage 10: Cambo-les-Bains - Pau, 193 km

Richard Cranium

This is where the brown stuff hits the fan. DS's will have a hell of a time trying to decide whether an early break is worth an reaction. GC contenders, will NOT be showing any cards......

At least that's my prediction.

C_Heath

lol he said brown stuff

platypus

With 35 KOM points on offer for the last two climbs, this is where we'll see the real fight for the Maillot a Pois begin.

reef58

I think the final descent is too long to put major time in any GC contender here.

Richard

Laggard

Bad things happen on the road to Pau.

acape

If I'm Savoldelli, I attack on the last climb and then hope to maintain any advantage on the descent.

adamastor

Hmmmm, last climb not tough enough for a first mountain stage (still a lot of heroes around then), then too far away from finish. I see a group of about 10 riders (no GC contenders) start, among them at least 5 or 6 Spaniards. If they start the last climb with 7 minutes ahead of peloton, they'll have a chance. Actually, this would be the ideal stage for a guy like Jens Voigt. And Moreau...heyhey, this is a déja vu. Voigt and Moreau, 2005, chasing Rasmussen, and helping each other. Rasmussen won the stage, Voigt got yeloow jersey, Moreau was happy to become second overall. I even remember one of the 2 (Moreau or Voigt) having a puncture, and the other waiting for him on the flat in the last 50 kilometres. Epic.

reef58

I doubt if Moreau is given the opportunity this year. I think it would be a big mistake by the GC guys.

Richard

blue_neon

Do see hills .

meb

I think Moreau has a better shot at getting away from the GC contenders during stage 11, so I think he'll hang back on stage 10 to be fresh for 11.

Voigt will be on the break, along with the usual polka dot wantabes: Pineau, De La Fuente, Wemann, Hernandez, Boogerd, Totshing, along with true contendor Rasmussen, Mayo, and Periero if they DO delay their attacks till Thursday.

Thor on the first intermediate sprint.

Edit: The dot contenders WILL be there if delay their attacks till Thursday.

adamastor

That's my point. I do not believe Moreau is after the GC. He must sense he is too limited for it. I am still convinced he's after the polka. now that Virenque is out of the way, and last year he had to leave it to Rasmussen.

Polka + Mountain stage for Moreau. Best chances to get it is tomorrow, because he is still in good shape. who knows what he'll look like on Thursday...Moreau never looked good in the Alpes either (but could be wrong there) so I don't think he will wait for 3rd week.

Panic

My guess: Moreau or Phil Gilbert or Mayo.

reef58

Does T-Mobile work to keep yellow, or do they change gears and work for Kloden? I can't wait to see.

Richard

fruitless

If Mayo is going to show anything it will start here.

reef58

This isn't a stage for Mayo. I can see his scrawny butt holding off the pack for 30 kilometers on a downhill. That would be special.

Richard

Panic

Good point Richard.

godspiral

This could be a surprise if they can get organized. There's 2 flatish stretches of 20k after the HC climb. If a group can stay together to help each other through those, it can take big time on the last 2 climbs

Richard Cranium

Really a hard stage to call. Too many sub plots, with KOM points etc..... But I'm looking to someone other than Tmob or Phonak to try and throw 2 or 3 riders up the road. This could be a do or die deal for Disco, especially if they get someone like Evans or Menchov in a mix.....

Thylacine

One of the B-level climbers with little GC prospects will win this stage I reckon as part of a multi-rider breakaway. All the A-level ones will be too busy eye-balling eachother and not wanting to go too hard so early in the hills.

feltdude

Popovych is gonna go.

Allen H

I agree - this is the most likely scenario. None of the "real" GC contenders (whoever that may turn out to be!) will want to risk burning out too early on the first mountain stage, with much tougher days in the mountains still to come.

But a breakaway that succeeds could actually set up a B-level climber as a GC contender, if his team is ultimately strong enough, given how wide open the field seems to be at this point. In any event, the strategies could be fascinating starting tomorrow.

meb

Right. Stage 11 is much better suited for polka data specialist to get big points.
And 10 is even less of an opportunity for the GC contendors with that long downhill finish followed by the day killer stage.

I think of Mayo as too far behind to contend for the GC so now think he'll try for the dots while also trying for a top 10 in GC. That long downhill is after the last climber points so the polka dot specialists needn't worry as much about that as the GC contenders.

Revenig

McEwen for the win. Oops, my mistake, got a flat stage hangover.

blue_neon

McEwens time is over...Evans time has just began .