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Old 06-25-06, 12:39 AM   #1
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Stage 11: Tarbes - Val d'Aran/Pla-de-Beret (Spain)

Stage 11: Tarbes - Val d'Aran/Pla-de-Beret (Spain), 208 km

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Old 07-12-06, 02:33 PM   #2
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Dots for the Chicken

Rassmussen-he showed his hand in that last climb of stage 10 blowing past those guys. I'd expect Periero up front as well. A good chance for Moreau to make an impact on GC while keeping himself in position for the dots if the GC slips away. Dunno about Mayo, can't tell if he was not well for stage 10 or was holding back to take on Rassmussen in stage 11.
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Old 07-12-06, 02:41 PM   #3
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I don't think any possible GC contender will be allowed to break away on this stage. The GC's should finish together. Anyone not in the lead group of GC's better focus on stage wins.

Richard
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Old 07-12-06, 02:51 PM   #4
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gibo, watch him he is gonna try and stamp his authority on the
race tomorrow.

marty
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Old 07-12-06, 02:52 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by meb
Rassmussen-he showed his hand in that last climb of stage 10 blowing past those guys. I'd expect Periero up front as well. A good chance for Moreau to make an impact on GC while keeping himself in position for the dots if the GC slips away. Dunno about Mayo, can't tell if he was not well for stage 10 or was holding back to take on Rassmussen in stage 11.
Mayo is fini. You don't lose over 5 minutes to the peleton because you're holding back. I expect that there will be some serious attack on stage 11. With most of big Pharma out of the picture, a bold move from Rujano or Simoni would wreak havoc with the peleton.
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Old 07-12-06, 02:53 PM   #6
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Quote:
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gibo, watch him he is gonna try and stamp his authority on the
race tomorrow.

marty
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Old 07-12-06, 02:58 PM   #7
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No

Rasmussen can only do one thing good and that is climb. He is a feather..light as a ghost. he is likely the worst time trialist on the tour. Even though he was an ex-MTB he is also a crappy at the descent.
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Old 07-12-06, 03:43 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USAZorro
Mayo is fini. You don't lose over 5 minutes to the peleton because you're holding back. I expect that there will be some serious attack on stage 11. With most of big Pharma out of the picture, a bold move from Rujano or Simoni would wreak havoc with the peleton.
Mayo was finished on GC after the TT. Losing 5 minutes more doesn't matter. Was he ill or holding back for a stage and polka dots tommorrow?
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Old 07-12-06, 05:42 PM   #9
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This is the first of only three stages in this year's Tour with mountain top finishes.

While they might let a non-threat like Rasmussen go, the real battle will be among the GC contenders. I think they all held back today (Stage 10), saving up for this stage. I think Disco, T-Mobile and Phonak are all going to drive the pace trying to shatter the others. The only question is how soon that will start. The final climb, at 5.4%, is probably not steep enough to do enough damage. I suspect they will try earlier.

Can Kloden match Floyd? We'll see..
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Old 07-12-06, 06:04 PM   #10
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This is the first of only three stages in this year's Tour with mountain top finishes.

While they might let a non-threat like Rasmussen go, the real battle will be among the GC contenders. I think they all held back today (Stage 10), saving up for this stage. I think Disco, T-Mobile and Phonak are all going to drive the pace trying to shatter the others. The only question is how soon that will start. The final climb, at 5.4%, is probably not steep enough to do enough damage. I suspect they will try earlier.

Can Kloden match Floyd? We'll see..
Don't forget Cadel Evans, Lotto's been resting up to pace him through the mountains. I'm hoping I get to see Horner carry him as far as possible, and then climb himself into contention.
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Old 07-12-06, 06:22 PM   #11
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Does the finish mean that a peloton heading in together at the start of the last time could see an interval between first and last of 3 minutes?

It will be very interesting to see who leads peloton this stage, because ag2r doesnt need to. Their guy in yellow just needs to hand with peloton... if peloton is not worried about a break, then neither should he.
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Old 07-12-06, 06:24 PM   #12
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It will start on the Tourmalet and only get worse as the stage goes on.
Look for some serious attacking from everyone.
Cadel Evans promises to be a major threat but my
money is on Gibo for the first big break.

Marty
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Old 07-12-06, 07:35 PM   #13
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Kloden says he's going to F stuff up
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Old 07-12-06, 08:01 PM   #14
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There will be 3-4 people eating chicken tomorrow.

Kloden? I doubt he'll be within 3 minutes of the stage winner.
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Old 07-12-06, 09:05 PM   #15
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Can Kloden match Floyd? We'll see..
I think it's the other way around.
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Old 07-12-06, 09:07 PM   #16
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looks like leipheimer could be in a bit of trouble. He was put under a bit of pressure on stage 10, although he did catch the peloton back up on the descent.

He isn't going so well.
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Old 07-12-06, 09:12 PM   #17
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Levi Leipheimer is done. Maybe next year he will be in better form.
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Old 07-12-06, 09:39 PM   #18
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I'd go with Rasmussen.
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Old 07-13-06, 12:51 AM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lotek
It will start on the Tourmalet and only get worse as the stage goes on.
Look for some serious attacking from everyone.
Cadel Evans promises to be a major threat but my
money is on Gibo for the first big break.

Marty
Marty sorry my ignorance, who the hell is Gibo??? Simoni?
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Old 07-13-06, 01:14 AM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by meb
Mayo was finished on GC after the TT. Losing 5 minutes more doesn't matter. Was he ill or holding back for a stage and polka dots tommorrow?
Sorry guys, don't understand. Mayo lost 24 minutes to the winner, 17 to peloton in stage 10. Or am I wrong here?

He caught a cold, and felt weak yesterday, stating he hopes to have recovered for the Alpes for a stage win.
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Old 07-13-06, 01:17 AM   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by USAZorro
Mayo is fini. You don't lose over 5 minutes to the peleton because you're holding back. I expect that there will be some serious attack on stage 11. With most of big Pharma out of the picture, a bold move from Rujano or Simoni would wreak havoc with the peleton.
I saw Simoni struggling yesterday on Marie-Blanque. Don't think in Tour de France guys would bluff by letting peloton go off...it's either you're in good shape IN the peloton, or you're in a bad shape and byebye. In stage 10 a lot of riders recovered in the descent, no such chance today.
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Old 07-13-06, 01:35 AM   #22
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For today's stage, don't think big ones will show their noses. Selection will be made from the back:

T-Mobile looking very strong for leading the peloton again.
Landis was a bit short of men yesterday on Soudet and Marie-Blanque (only 3 arrived with first peloton)
Discovery looking very strong (7 in first peloton in stage 10), but I think they'll stay put until the Alpes, where Popovych, Hincapie, Savoldelli and Azevedo will show their cards.

So what is my guess for today? I find Dessel's AG2R very very sexy (in stage 10, 7 out of 8 riders in first peloton or better !!). And an early attack by Astarloza or Arrieta would take away the burden from the team (to have to lead the peloton). Kloeden must feel very strong to have his men leading the pack.

Rasmussen will be the killer on Tourmalet today, I guess, but only if he gets the go ahead from team boss, as his main task still is to protect Menchov in the mountain stages.

Finally big unknown is Moreau. If he can "channel" his enthusiasm, he'll stay with the others in the peloton. But if he follows Rasmussen in Tourmalet, it will hurt...

AG2R have already fulfilled their duty on this Tour, so they can take risks now. Who said this Tour is boring?
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Old 07-13-06, 02:47 AM   #23
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Quote:
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Marty sorry my ignorance, who the hell is Gibo??? Simoni?
Either that or Philippe Gilbert.
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Old 07-13-06, 02:56 AM   #24
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Quote:
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Sorry guys, don't understand. Mayo lost 24 minutes to the winner, 17 to peloton in stage 10. Or am I wrong here?

He caught a cold, and felt weak yesterday, stating he hopes to have recovered for the Alpes for a stage win.
Mayo lost so much time on stage 7 he was effectively out of GC competition then, but is such a good climber he could be Rassmussen's chief rival for the polka dots. There are a lot more polka dot points on stage 11 with an easy stage 12 to recover in the peloton if someone wants to go for the polka dots on 11. His dropping back could have been a ploy to be fully rested for a stage 11 attack.

Since you've identified his problems as an illness in the form of a cold, we now see he is effectively out of stage 11 and polka dot contention due the cold, so we'll see him attack in one or two Alp stages for a stage win.

Was he sufferring from the cold in stage 7?
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Old 07-13-06, 02:59 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoothie104
Kloden says he's going to F stuff up
Could you elaborate?
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