dongiovanni

Why is there no mention whatsoever of Rasmussen? This guy is dangerous in the mountains. He might have been on the podium last year if he hadn't had those mechanical problems. Liggett, Roll, and Sherwin are missing the boat by not mentioning this guy.

platypus

He was dangerous in the mountains last year mainly since he was an unknown. This year, he's a known quantity, and he won't be allowed away in the mountains if he's anywhere remotely close on GC. If Rasmussen really wants the KOM jersey he'll play it smart and drop wayyyyy back on GC until they get to the Pyrenees so that the peloton doesn't chase him down when he goes out for the cat 1's and HC points.

merlinextraligh

Mechanical Problems? You mean not being able to control the mechanics of the bike? Check back after tommorrow's TT. Rasmussen was 153 in the prologue, dropping over a minute to the GC contenders in only 4 miles.
Extrapolating from last year's results is a dangerous thing. Rasmussen did most of his damge last year on one stage where he was allowed to get away. That won't be repeated, unless he's already way down on GC after tomorrow's TT. Moreover, Rasmussen himself is unlikely to be shooting for a place on the pdoium. Much more likely scenario is that Rasmussen wants to win the KOM. If he's well down on GC after the TT, he can get in early breaks on the mountain stages and rack up KOM points ala Richard Virenque.
There's a reason Phil and PAul are not talking about Rasmussen as a GC contender.

Platypus, you type faster.

dongiovanni

What do you think of his chances for Yellow?

CyLowe97

Rasmussen = Podium? Slim chance of that happening.

He can't TT worth crap and there are 2 50k TT's this year.

Plus, he's not getting away in the mountains this year..... unless..... he loses TONS of time in the TT and the first mountain stage so that he's no longer a threat.

He could do something like this to set himself up to get into breaks to snatch maximum KOM points down the line...????

[edit: Platypus and merlinextraligh already mentioned this stuff.... )

dongiovanni

Mechanical problems - if you saw the 2005 TDF, you know what I mean - he had to change bikes 3 times because of mechanical problems.

dongiovanni

I would be careful about counting this guy out. He rode right next to Lance. They may not have the opportunity to not "let him" get away. Since he is reclusive, and hardly ever races, he is an unknown. I give him much better chances than Levi, who just can't seem to ever really put it all together.

merlinextraligh

The mechanical problems were when he repeatedly crashed in the last TT. Mechanical problems didn't cause his crashes

platypus

If I were his DS, that is exactly how I'd play it. Stick way down on GC (like just inside the time cut), and soft pedal the ITT's so that the big boys leave you alone in the mountains.

NoRacer

Somebody needs to keep that boy fed.

dongiovanni

Sort of...but his crashes were a result of mechanical problems to be fair. Especially when he ended up in the ditch - he was looking down at his pedals because his bike was a mess.

merlinextraligh

Name one guy (other than Delgado, who missed his start time) that finished in the bottom 20 of the prologue, and came back to finish on the podium. Rasmussen is a tiny guy that can climb, but because he's so tiny he's a poor time trialer. (and his frail upper body had something to do with him being able to control a bike with a disc and a deeep dish front on a twisty course in last year's tt) He can't win on this course.

dongiovanni

Delgado...just kidding...I see your points - they are all good. But I still say that with the top riders all gone from last year, can't we just mention Rasmussen once as a contender? If they are going to mention Levi, then it seems that this guy deserves a mention as a possibility.

CyLowe97

Levi can TT. He may not be the greatest, but he's good enough to hang close.

He did win the Dauphine this year.... he's not exactly a slouch.

dongiovanni

The Dauphine was most certainly dogged this year by many of the top riders. Big deal. True, he is not a slouch, but not a winner. Definitely doesn't have that killer instinct (not that hincapie does either).

godspiral

I don't really buy the "they let him take 20 minutes in the mountains." If they would have drag him down that day, they would of been more tired the other days.
It seemed as though he finished in the top 10 in practically every mountain stage last year.... so it seems like he can climb every day.
He was down 5:12 after stage 7 (end of flats), and lost over 7 minutes on the last TT to lance, but finished only 11minutes back overall in the end.

I'm assuming its conceivable he can keep his bike upright through a whole TT this year.

feltdude

Two.

50k.

Time.

Trials.

bikingshearer 

And he's dangerous to himself everywhere else. Unless he has done incredibly serious work on his TT ability, he is at the very, very best a dark horse for a podium spot. That TT fiasco last year had nothing to do with mechanical problems and everything to do with a mental and emotional meltdown of "China Syndrome" proportions. It was the kind of butt-whipping that devastates most athletes, regardless of the sport.

meb

I expect he'll make another break stage 10 and or 11 in the Pyrranies. If the GC contendors try and keep with him on day 10, they'll be too spent on day 11. They'll let him go because he's not a threat to wear yellow after the Alps. Someone might send a teamate with him to keep him from getting bonus time. He's an outside chance at a podium, but not the top spot. I expect him in the top 10.

meb

2004 final KOM standings, Basso and Rassmussen had the same number of KOM points, but Basso was listed 3rd while Rassmussen 4th. What was the tiebreaker that gave third to Basso?

classic1

+1. Excellent summary

Guest

He had like four bike changes. It wasn't mechanical problems- he just had a TT breakdown. TT is about nerves too, and he just lost his nerve. He had 6 crashes... and some of them were just plain insane (ie: crashing and flying over his handlebars into the ditch). He lost his nerve and his confidence.

Koffee

dongiovanni

I hate to be right every time - see ya Levi. I knew you would crack, but didn't think it would happen so soon. NOW I ASK YOU - since the TT obviously isn't going to sort out this group of 2nd best riders for the tour - WHAT ABOUT RASMUSSEN?

godspiral

I'm guessing there are good climbers that finished 3+minutes ahead of rasmussen (6.5 min down), so maybe other climbing specialists are in a better position for the overall.

Could climbers from different teams collaborate to get some huge stage leads over the TT specialists?

harlond

He's over 7 minutes back with another 50K TT where he's likely to lose another 4-5 minutes. You really think he can pull back 12 minutes in the mountains on EVERYBODY? When he won stage 9 last year, he got 6 minutes on the main contenders, at which point he was still behind Armstrong. He gained no further time on the GC heading into the mountainous stage 14, where he lost time to Armstrong, Basso, Ullrich, Landis, and Leipheimer. He lost some more time to the ultimate podium finishers the next day, putting some time into Landis, Leipheimer and the rest. In stage 18, he again lost time to the big guns, finishing in a group with Levi, Vino, and Mancebo, ending the stage in 3rd place heading into the ITT. He proved he could climb with some of the best last year, but what he did not prove was that he could put major time into GC contenders without the benefit of being let go on a breakaway. Since he's so far down now, he might be let go again this year. But even if he duplicates his feat from last year and gains 6 minutes somewhere, he still has no shot at the podium.