why is it in [a team's] interest to "protect the yellow jersey" now? *spoiler*
07-20-06, 10:02 AM
#26
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Originally Posted by timcupery
Uh, see what I said above about Periero.
Also, I just did some checking, and Periero did not come close to staying with the best climbers in stages when he wasn't already out on a breakaway. On the kick-*** mountain stages when Periero hadn't broken away early, he usually lost 7-8 minutes. The only reason that he finished 10th was that he was in three major breakaways that gained significant time on the peloton. And those breaks were not covered because the peloton did not consider him a threat. He may well finish 10th this year, but he's not a podium threat unless they spot him another 15 minutes at least.
Also, I just did some checking, and Periero did not come close to staying with the best climbers in stages when he wasn't already out on a breakaway. On the kick-*** mountain stages when Periero hadn't broken away early, he usually lost 7-8 minutes. The only reason that he finished 10th was that he was in three major breakaways that gained significant time on the peloton. And those breaks were not covered because the peloton did not consider him a threat. He may well finish 10th this year, but he's not a podium threat unless they spot him another 15 minutes at least.
Based on past data, I still think my original assessment was as good as could have been made, and obviously Phonak, T-Mobile, Rabobank, and all other teams with GC contendors made the same guess.
But hats off to Periero! He's got 30 seconds on Landis and 12 seconds on Sastre. Assuming no timegaps come on stage 18 or the final stage 20, this tour comes down to Saturday's ITT.
In the first ITT, Landis gained 1:10 on Sastre and 1:40 on Periero. If that happens again, the podium would be:
1) Landis
2) Sastre @ 52s
3) Periero @ 1:10
Of course, Landis has beat himself up on the three alpine stages. Of course, Sastre and Periero were beating themselves up, too. So we'll see.
PS: really interesting is looking at the 2005 ITT. Landis gained 1:08 on Sastre and 1:23 on Periero.
07-20-06, 10:43 AM
#27
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Originally Posted by timcupery
All right, I'm forced to take this back.
