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Old 07-17-06, 11:23 AM   #51
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Originally Posted by meb
With hindsight, Phonak’s decision is shown as brilliant. ...If anything, the other contending teams should be chided for missing an opportunity at competitively eliminating two of Floyd's domestiques.
Absolutely! WHat happened to the other teams when they realized that Phonak was not going to be chasing?
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Old 07-17-06, 11:32 AM   #52
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Originally Posted by Keith99
...There is virtually no threat to the final Yellow from members of either breakaway. ...
If there is a possible mistake in the strategy, it could be in allowing a rider like Pereiro (who I believe finished 10th? last year when Lance/Basso/Ulrich were setting the standard) back into contention. We'll see.
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Old 07-17-06, 11:45 AM   #53
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Originally Posted by rufvelo
If there is a possible mistake in the strategy, it could be in allowing a rider like Pereiro (who I believe finished 10th? last year when Lance/Basso/Ulrich were setting the standard) back into contention. We'll see.
He's actually not a threat for the final podium. This has been discussed at length in another thread that I started, but the upshot is that Periero lost significant time in every major mountain stage, except a few where he was allowed to escape on the breakaway precisely because he was not thought to be a serious threat. Were it not for the time gained back on those breakaway stages, he wouldn't have finished close to 10th. I don't think he'll be able to hang with the leaders when the hammer comes down tomorrow, and they're certainly not going to let him get away early when he's in yellow (nor will he try).
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Old 07-17-06, 11:55 AM   #54
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Funny. Now Hinault is calling Flandis "tactically naive".
Of course, this is just after Lance called the French world cup team "*******s".
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Old 07-17-06, 12:23 PM   #55
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Just because it's been discussed in other threads, and Periero lost time before
doesn't mean he will again.
It's funny what that yellow jersey (or pink or gold) can do to a rider or team.
How many times have we see a rider in the jersey put in the TT or ride of a lifetime
to hold onto it?

The real over the top move was the Yellow Bike/shoes/helmet/shorts/glasses/bracelet/teeth/socks etc.
before the final stage. I thought it was rather pretentious atmo.

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Old 07-17-06, 12:30 PM   #56
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Yep...his career was totally in the dumper, he had no real results for a long time, then, presto, he goes with Riis and starts getting great results...

hmmmm.....I have always been surprised that the "Bike Forums Doping Control Experts" never jumped on that. I read it out here that everybody does it...and anytime a rider suddenly starts getting results after a long period of not doing so.....
Not commenting on the doping issue, but I had a chance to go over his career with him year by year. If you read his history, you'd realize how much adversity he worked through. Most people would have quit long ago. As mentioned before he was on teams that didn't make use of him to his advantage. There were also issues of "old school" vs. "new school" training, Bobby's clearly in the latter camp as is Riis.

He also had a fair number of injuries and illnesses. I've found out this year that at the upper levels of the sport in the amatuer ranks you can't be even a little off and have good results. I can only imagine what it is like in the Euro peleton.

As far as the yellow jersey issue, it was tactics meets tradition. Much easier for teams to make the call to defend the jersey when they don't have a real GC contender. Disco/USPS, CSC, and now Phonak have all made decisions not to defend based on their chances at wearing the jersey into Paris. Hard to fault that.

But stuffing water bottles down it is just wrong regardless (see Gonchar/Pena).
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Old 07-17-06, 12:31 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by lotek
Just because it's been discussed in other threads, and Periero lost time before doesn't mean he will again.
This is true. It doesn't mean it's certain that Periero will lose significant time in the mountains again. But it does mean that it's extremely likely that Periero will lose time. And all sports tactics like this are calculated on the basis of likelihoods, not certainties.

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Originally Posted by lotek
It's funny what that yellow jersey (or pink or gold) can do to a rider or team. How many times have we see a rider in the jersey put in the TT or ride of a lifetime to hold onto it?
I agree that some people work extremely hard - harder than they would otherwise - to hold onto the M.J. But when riders in yellow put in a TT or climb of a lifetime to hold onto it, it's usually because they're trying to hang onto the Yellow for as long as possible, not trying to win the thing. Voekler a couple of years ago was this sort of case - he killed himself to hang onto yellow, and then had nothing left to even hang onto the white jersey. You rarely see the put-in-a-ride-of-a-lifetime-because-of-wearing-yellow effect on riders who are already overall contendors, because their goal is to be wearing yellow when they arrive in Paris - not to hold onto it for an extra day or two.
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Old 07-17-06, 01:39 PM   #58
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I talked to Bobby Julich in 2004 after the CSC Invitational in Arlington, Virginia. I didn't see him as pompus. He was focused, easy to talk to and down to earth in an elite athlete sort of way.

If you compare him to Lance Armstrong, then for sure he is a failure. But if you compare him to his contemporaries like Kevin Livinigston, Jonathan Vaughters, George Hincapie and others, then he is for sure a success. Shoot, what I wouldn't give to have had his cycling career. Paris Nice, Critierium International (twice), Two Man UCI TT (twice), Benelux (Belgium-Netherlands-Luxemborg) Tour, Olympic medal, goodness knows a lot of other stuff here and there. He decided to focus on other stuff this year, and his team moved from winning week long stage races to a Grand Tour. So calling him a has been/never was is easily refutable. The fact that he hasn't lived up to other's expectations says more about those expectations than his accomplishments.

Having broken my hip myself and knowing how long and difficult, not to mention painful my recovery was, Floyd is a total hero to me. One thing an injury like that teaches you is that you have to pay out your efforts over the course, and Floyd knows better than to waste one iota of energy that isn't going towards winning the bike race. If your hip starts to lock up on you, you're finished, so you have to be careful. Whether you like his style or not, we'll see next Sunday whether it worked or not.

So, while I like and admire Bobby Julich, I don't really agree with him, although he makes some interesting points. I eludicate on his website: http://www.bobbyjulich.com/julich/?p=105#comments.
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Old 07-17-06, 01:49 PM   #59
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Julich isn't alone in his criticism of Phonak. A lot of the media, racers and other teams didn't like how Phonak wouldn't help in front. If you are going to roll out a yellow bike for Landis, then defend the jersey! Otherwise, leave the yellow bike in the truck. You never saw Lance to head to toe yellow until the last day.
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Old 07-17-06, 01:56 PM   #60
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Originally Posted by flipped4bikes
Julich isn't alone in his criticism of Phonak. A lot of the media, racers and other teams didn't like how Phonak wouldn't help in front. If you are going to roll out a yellow bike for Landis, then defend the jersey! Otherwise, leave the yellow bike in the truck. You never saw Lance to head to toe yellow until the last day.
Did you watch the stage?? Phonak was up front the whole time. If the other teams wanted to catch up to the break, they could have easily pushed the pace by taking the point for a while. Phonak were not built to control the peloton across transition stages like Postal/Discovery of the last 7 years. That just ain't going to happen this year.

Floyd's yellow/black BMC was slick.
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Old 07-17-06, 02:04 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by CyLowe97
Did you watch the stage?? Phonak was up front the whole time. If the other teams wanted to catch up to the break, they could have easily pushed the pace by taking the point for a while. Phonak were not built to control the peloton across transition stages like Postal/Discovery of the last 7 years. That just ain't going to happen this year.

Floyd's yellow/black BMC was slick.
As I recall, Rabobank had to get up front first and try to reel in the breakaway. When Phonak was up front , they didn't look all the worked up. Yes, Phonak is not as strong as Disco, but they still had an opportunity to work out with other teams on how to close the time gap. And that's the issue. If Phonak isn't strong overall, they are going to need other teams help. The bike is slick, but they picked a stupid time to bring it out...
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Old 07-17-06, 02:13 PM   #62
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As I recall, Rabobank had to get up front first and try to reel in the breakaway. When Phonak was up front , they didn't look all the worked up. Yes, Phonak is not as strong as Disco, but they still had an opportunity to work out with other teams on how to close the time gap. And that's the issue. If Phonak isn't strong overall, they are going to need other teams help. The bike is slick, but they picked a stupid time to bring it out...
This is where Julich may have a point. If some other teams are irked at Phonak, and they need help, then they have a problem. If I remember correctly, Floyd was on his own on the final climb last week, but had help up til then. He should be able to look after himself at that point, hopefully Phonak is strong enough for that task, if not good enough to have a couple guys with him tomorrow on the Alpe D'Huez. But on the other hand Pererio's team should help - to a point.
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Old 07-17-06, 02:16 PM   #63
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Originally Posted by meb
With hindsight, Phonak’s decision is shown as brilliant. Hunter and Jalabert dropped off the back of the peloton. Sixth place back was 45 seconds outside the 9% finishing cutoff for a coefficient 1 stage. Had Floyd defended the jersey, it would have brought the peloton within the cutoff time-but not Hunter and Jalabert. As more than 20% of the field was being eliminated, the cutoff time was incremented to 10% to prevent eliminating more than 20% of the field. That extra 1% saved Jalabert and Hunter, so had Floyd brought the peloton forward to defend the jersey, Phonak would have lost 2 riders, and Floyd needs all the support he can muster in such a close Tour.

If anything, the other contending teams should be chided for missing an opportunity at competitively eliminating two of Floyd's domestiques.
very informative, thank you.

The only problem with this issue playing a role in the tactics is that it wasn't really discussed in the post race interviews. So either the phonak riders didn't know why they weren't chasing (following team orders without knowing rationale), or this is post-event rationalization.
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Old 07-17-06, 02:21 PM   #64
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^^^ or a possible "need to know basis" as not to "give" away that two riders were in danger of being dropped off, lest some other team whips the group into a frenzy. Radios are more than likely being listened to there as well. I'd want to do that communication on the quiet.
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Old 07-17-06, 02:29 PM   #65
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^^^ or a possible "need to know basis" as not to "give" away that two riders were in danger of being dropped off, lest some other team whips the group into a frenzy. Radios are more than likely being listened to there as well. I'd want to do that communication on the quiet.
Good point! Plus agree with the comment above about bringing out the yellow bike prematurely. They should have kept it in the truck a few more days(or Landis should have said thanks, but insisted they did just that).
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Old 07-17-06, 02:50 PM   #66
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Originally Posted by flipped4bikes
snip ... If Phonak isn't strong overall, they are going to need other teams help.
And how do you know that they didn't negotiate for some help later in the Tour from Illes Balears before they allowed the break away to get that far away?
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Old 07-17-06, 04:44 PM   #67
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And how do you know that they didn't negotiate for some help later in the Tour from Illes Balears before they allowed the break away to get that far away?
I was kind of wondering if there wasn't a Phonak/Illes Balears connection going. Didn't Pereiro ride for Phonak last year? Maybe they had a gentleman's agreement of some sort. Or maybe not.

In any case, I think it's way too early to be talking about whether Landis "gave away" the jersey or simply masterminded its defense for the longer term (Paris). I'm leaning towards the latter theory; it makes a lot of sense to me and much of the analysis (including Liggett/Sherwen from commentary I heard the other night) leans towards it being a move more smart than not. I think this "disrespect for the jersey" crap comes more from the media trying to get people riled up. With many of the big names gone this year, gotta have something to write about.
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Old 07-19-06, 09:27 AM   #68
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Originally Posted by timcupery
He's actually not a threat for the final podium. This has been discussed at length in another thread that I started, but the upshot is that Periero lost significant time in every major mountain stage, except a few where he was allowed to escape on the breakaway precisely because he was not thought to be a serious threat. Were it not for the time gained back on those breakaway stages, he wouldn't have finished close to 10th. I don't think he'll be able to hang with the leaders when the hammer comes down tomorrow, and they're certainly not going to let him get away early when he's in yellow (nor will he try).
In hindsight, some truly wonderful 'insight' on Pereiro!

Just goes to show that in a Tour like the current one, you should never dismiss anyone, based on some old data. Circumstances change, like getting the taste of yellow for example, racers improve their performance...

....28 minutes they gave him!
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Old 07-20-06, 10:05 AM   #69
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In hindsight, some truly wonderful 'insight' on Pereiro!
Just goes to show that in a Tour like the current one, you should never dismiss anyone, based on some old data. Circumstances change, like getting the taste of yellow for example, racers improve their performance...
....28 minutes they gave him!
29:50, actually.
Based on past data, I still think my original assessment was as good as could have been made, and obviously Phonak, T-Mobile, Rabobank, and all other teams with GC contendors made the same guess that I did.

But hats off to Periero! He has been amazing, far beyond what anyone expected him to do in the Alpine stages. He's got 30 seconds on Landis and 12 seconds on Sastre. Assuming no timegaps come on stage 18 or the final stage 20, this tour comes down to Saturday's ITT.

In the first ITT, Landis gained 1:10 on Sastre and 1:40 on Periero. If that happens again, the podium would be:
1) Landis
2) Sastre @ 52s
3) Periero @ 1:10

Of course, Landis has beat himself up on the three alpine stages. But then, Sastre and Periero were beating themselves up, too, and were hurting at least as much as Landis on today's final climb. So we'll see.

PS: really interesting is looking at the 2005 ITT. Landis gained 1:08 on Sastre and 1:23 on Periero.
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