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  1. #1
    reductio ad absurdum ericy's Avatar
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    I believe Floyd...

    I saw Floyd on Larry King last night giving his story, and then a had chance to think about this some, and here is my take on it.

    • All of the riders in the TdF know that if they are stage winner or tour leader that they will be tested. Had Floyd wanted to dope, he could have chosen something that at least had a chance of getting past the tests. Picking testosterone is just asking for trouble.
    • Testosterone was typically used during training to build muscle mass over several months. In the bad old days where the East German swim team used the stuff, they would use it prior to the event, and then stop prior to the event to give the body a chance to restore normal testosterone levels. A sudden spike in levels during an event isn't consistent with typical abuse patterns.
    • Floyd's doctor said that he didn't think that there would even be any benefit to using testosterone on the day of an event.


    At this point I don't know how it is that his levels became elevated, and it sounds like nobody else really does either. We will have to see what the remaining tests actually say - there is one test that is yet to be performed which will say whether there were any hormones in there which weren't produced by his body, and that will help quite a bit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ericy
    I saw Floyd on Larry King last night giving his story, and then a had chance to think about this some, and here is my take on it.

    • All of the riders in the TdF know that if they are stage winner or tour leader that they will be tested. Had Floyd wanted to dope, he could have chosen something that at least had a chance of getting past the tests. Picking testosterone is just asking for trouble.
    • Testosterone was typically used during training to build muscle mass over several months. In the bad old days where the East German swim team used the stuff, they would use it prior to the event, and then stop prior to the event to give the body a chance to restore normal testosterone levels. A sudden spike in levels during an event isn't consistent with typical abuse patterns.
    • Floyd's doctor said that he didn't think that there would even be any benefit to using testosterone on the day of an event.


    At this point I don't know how it is that his levels became elevated, and it sounds like nobody else really does either. We will have to see what the remaining tests actually say - there is one test that is yet to be performed which will say whether there were any hormones in there which weren't produced by his body, and that will help quite a bit.

    you are certainly entitled to your opinion.....Hope you're right....but I doubt it

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    I believe him also.

    More than the 'I think they are smarter than that' theory, I prefer to believe Floyd is a man of principle. He told his mom he's not guilty. I am hoping that means something. I know that may be naive, but in todays day & age I gotta hold out hope.

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    Senior Member reef58's Avatar
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    What you are forgetting is Floyd had nothing to lose. He lost the race on stage 16. There may be no next year for him due to the hip. He can dope and have a 50-50 chance of getting caught, and possibly getting back in the race, or he can end his career with a 10th place finish at the TDF.

    Richard

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    Quote Originally Posted by reef58
    What you are forgetting is Floyd had nothing to lose. He lost the race on stage 16. There may be no next year for him due to the hip. He can dope and have a 50-50 chance of getting caught, and possibly getting back in the race, or he can end his career with a 10th place finish at the TDF.

    Richard
    I think you are spot on, IF the B sample is positive. Think on this scenario -

    1. After Stage 16 the TDF is lost to Floyd in everyone's mind, including his own
    2. Proof of (1) is that he went and had 2 beers and "at least" 4 shots of Jack Daniels - NO racer who thought he had a shot at winning would do this. . .
    3. To speed his recovery so he can FINISH the TDF he puts the Testo patch on his scrotum (which according to the WSJ, ESPN, etc. . .WILL speed recovery). At this point he knows he won't be tested and is planning to not lose any more time and get a few places back in the TT.
    4. Stage 17 starts and he heads out NEVER expecting that they will let him go, but they do.
    5. He finishes 1st and gets tested, something he nor anyone thought would happen.
    6. The urine test picks up the testo used for his recovery.

    If he is guilty this scenario explains it and fits with why. . .IMO.

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    Senior Citizen Discount fixedfiend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by acrafton
    I think you are spot on, IF the B sample is positive. Think on this scenario -

    1. After Stage 16 the TDF is lost to Floyd in everyone's mind, including his own
    2. Proof of (1) is that he went and had 2 beers and "at least" 4 shots of Jack Daniels - NO racer who thought he had a shot at winning would do this. . .
    3. To speed his recovery so he can FINISH the TDF he puts the Testo patch on his scrotum (which according to the WSJ, ESPN, etc. . .WILL speed recovery). At this point he knows he won't be tested and is planning to not lose any more time and get a few places back in the TT.
    4. Stage 17 starts and he heads out NEVER expecting that they will let him go, but they do.
    5. He finishes 1st and gets tested, something he nor anyone thought would happen.
    6. The urine test picks up the testo used for his recovery.

    If he is guilty this scenario explains it and fits with why. . .IMO.
    theory still doesn't hold water...
    1. Why try a hail Mary then? obviously he still had some hope of winning and so did his team.
    2. Where are the actual notations that he had that much?
    3. Jeopardize his career to get up a couple of spots on a TT? Just to recover quicker? Every expert asked on this subject has stated that this would have had no effect on his TT.
    4. Why push yourself then knowing you would be tested as race leader and stage finisher? Why not hold back and let someone else finish? Why would he frame himself knowing he would be tested?
    5. see my answer to 4.
    6. obvious but as stated previously. The test only shows disproportionate amounts of the T:E count.
    "no signs or proof of outside or synthetic T source".

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    Quote Originally Posted by fixedfiend
    theory still doesn't hold water...
    1. Why try a hail Mary then? obviously he still had some hope of winning and so did his team.
    2. Where are the actual notations that he had that much?
    3. Jeopardize his career to get up a couple of spots on a TT? Just to recover quicker? Every expert asked on this subject has stated that this would have had no effect on his TT.
    4. Why push yourself then knowing you would be tested as race leader and stage finisher? Why not hold back and let someone else finish? Why would he frame himself knowing he would be tested?
    5. see my answer to 4.
    6. obvious but as stated previously. The test only shows disproportionate amounts of the T:E count.
    "no signs or proof of outside or synthetic T source".
    Sure it does, you didn't read what I posted:

    1. It was NOT a hail mary to win, it was an attempt to finish without any more damage. Stage 17 was tougher than 16 and if cracked on 16 then he needed 'help' to hold his own.
    2. Read and listen to his interview. . readily avail on the internet.
    3. His career is pretty much over due to the hip and even without the doping charge, he won't be back (his own physician said that a 'weekend warrior' with a hip as bad as Floyds would have trouble on weekend rides - see the NYT Magazine article of 3 weeks ago).
    4. These guys are killers and once he got out there it would be too hard to hold back. Also, I read (and I will see if I can get the ref) that they don't test everything all the time. Some stages they test for this, some for that. . .He didn't frame himself, he took a risk and it backfired.
    5. See my 4.
    6. None of us are scientists (at least I am not) specializing in performance enhancing drugs so not sure us arguing over it makes tons of sense.

    Net/net, I hope the B sample is negative and we have a true hero and a great performance but the reality is that it does not look good and the last thing cycling needs is another Tyler Hamilton throwing up one defense after another as to why he tested positive. Floyd started to do that in the interview and then backed away (the cortisone, the booze, . . .).

    An interesting perspective is here "Won't Get Fooled Again":
    http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/cyclin...ory?id=2532911

  8. #8
    Riding behind enemy lines iluvfreebeer's Avatar
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    I believe Flandis, until proven otherwise.
    If it's proven that he cheated, as I believe Tyler did, then I'll condemn him.
    As much as we talk about this in cycling, I wish other sports would take doping as seriously as the UCI.
    Most of them give a pass to cheaters. Kudos to cycling for being tough on them.
    ------------------------------------

    Armstrong never got caught cheating.
    That probably makes him as good a cheater as a cyclist.

    -- Some guy at the Dallas Crits

  9. #9
    You know you want to. Eatadonut's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by acrafton
    1. It was NOT a hail mary to win, it was an attempt to finish without any more damage. Stage 17 was tougher than 16 and if cracked on 16 then he needed 'help' to hold his own.

    Were you watching the phonak team in stage 17? That wasn't a "Hey, let's see if we can hold on, guys" tactic. Those guys went balls out to get Floyd off the front. His plan from the start that day was to make up all the time possible.
    Weather today: Hot. Humid. Potholes.

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    Senior Citizen Discount fixedfiend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by acrafton
    Sure it does, you didn't read what I posted:

    1. It was NOT a hail mary to win, it was an attempt to finish without any more damage. Stage 17 was tougher than 16 and if cracked on 16 then he needed 'help' to hold his own.
    2. Read and listen to his interview. . readily avail on the internet.
    3. His career is pretty much over due to the hip and even without the doping charge, he won't be back (his own physician said that a 'weekend warrior' with a hip as bad as Floyds would have trouble on weekend rides - see the NYT Magazine article of 3 weeks ago).
    4. These guys are killers and once he got out there it would be too hard to hold back. Also, I read (and I will see if I can get the ref) that they don't test everything all the time. Some stages they test for this, some for that. . .He didn't frame himself, he took a risk and it backfired.
    5. See my 4.
    6. None of us are scientists (at least I am not) specializing in performance enhancing drugs so not sure us arguing over it makes tons of sense.

    ]
    1. watch that stage again and if you can honestly tell me that wasn't a hail Mary to gain back time, I don't know what is.
    3. do you think that Floyd would stop racing because of a hip replacement? I know several young people who had this procedure done and they say their hip is better than before. If Floyd can win the TDF and other races with a bad hip, can you imagine what he could do with a new one?
    4. silly. he couldn't control himself and fix it so he wouldn't be tested?
    6. agreed.

  11. #11
    a blend of wit and charm Moochers_Dad's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by acrafton
    3. To speed his recovery so he can FINISH the TDF he puts the Testo patch on his scrotum (which according to the WSJ, ESPN, etc. . .WILL speed recovery). At this point he knows he won't be tested and is planning to not lose any more time and get a few places back in the TT.
    Testosterone to speed recovery only works on fast-twitch muscle fibers, like a sprinter would need. For a GC contender, or recovery before and after mountain stages, where slow-twitch muscle fibers are used and needed, it would be the wrong drug to use.

    Knows he won't be tested? That's a huge assumption since most riders assume they will be tested at any moment.

    Also, intense & vigorous exercise can trigger testosterone release for a short period following.

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    Senior Member erader's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by reef58
    What you are forgetting is Floyd had nothing to lose. He lost the race on stage 16. There may be no next year for him due to the hip. He can dope and have a 50-50 chance of getting caught, and possibly getting back in the race, or he can end his career with a 10th place finish at the TDF.

    Richard

    good points. many are caught because the doctors f**k up. also, testosterone is used for recovery, not just building muscle.

    ed rader

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eatadonut
    Were you watching the phonak team in stage 17? That wasn't a "Hey, let's see if we can hold on, guys" tactic. Those guys went balls out to get Floyd off the front. His plan from the start that day was to make up all the time possible.
    I think it became a hail mary to win once it worked. If he hadn't been so strong and the other teams chased him down, etc. . .In retrotspect since he won, yes, but we will never know what the real plan was and he (Floyd) may not have known until he took off and felt so strong.

    I am not saying he is guilty! I don't know, but there are plausible reason why he could be guilty and there are plausible reason why he may be innocent.

    I desparately want him to be innocent and cleared. If he is not cleared, I think those of us in the US will get a MUCH reduced Cyclism coverage from OLN which, due to the low ratings, may be looking for an excuse.

  14. #14
    Senior Member reef58's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fixedfiend
    1. watch that stage again and if you can honestly tell me that wasn't a hail Mary to gain back time, I don't know what is.
    3. do you think that Floyd would stop racing because of a hip replacement? I know several young people who had this procedure done and they say their hip is better than before. If Floyd can win the TDF and other races with a bad hip, can you imagine what he could do with a new one?
    4. silly. he couldn't control himself and fix it so he wouldn't be tested?
    6. agreed.
    I agree once he has the hip replaced he may be better. It is also possible he will never race professionally again. There is no guarantee that all will be well after the surgery. It may be. It may not be. That is what he was facing.

    With Basso, Ullrich, Mancebo, & Vino out of the race this was Floyd's best chance to win. I think he was the strongest rider in the race. He had a bad day at the worst possible time. With all of that hanging over his head I can see the temptation.

    Richard

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    Quote Originally Posted by acrafton
    I think you are spot on, IF the B sample is positive. Think on this scenario -

    1. After Stage 16 the TDF is lost to Floyd in everyone's mind, including his own
    2. Proof of (1) is that he went and had 2 beers and "at least" 4 shots of Jack Daniels - NO racer who thought he had a shot at winning would do this. . .
    3. To speed his recovery so he can FINISH the TDF he puts the Testo patch on his scrotum (which according to the WSJ, ESPN, etc. . .WILL speed recovery). At this point he knows he won't be tested and is planning to not lose any more time and get a few places back in the TT.
    4. Stage 17 starts and he heads out NEVER expecting that they will let him go, but they do.
    5. He finishes 1st and gets tested, something he nor anyone thought would happen.
    6. The urine test picks up the testo used for his recovery.

    If he is guilty this scenario explains it and fits with why. . .IMO.
    It would have been easy for him to fade back of Cunego on the last climb if all wanted to do was finish and not get tested.

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    I don't think he is guilty. I however feel the B sample will match the A Sample.

    20 years from now when floyd is fat like lemond, a new study will come out showing how spikes like that can naturally occur. But by then it will be too late.

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    Senior Citizen Discount fixedfiend's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by timhines
    I don't think he is guilty. I however feel the B sample will match the A Sample.

    20 years from now when floyd is fat like lemond, a new study will come out showing how spikes like that can naturally occur. But by then it will be too late.
    +1 Just like the inmates being freed from prison after serving 20 years of false accusations because of faulty lab work.

  18. #18
    My toilet-Floyd's future
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    Wow! Was this Floyd’s defense? Jeez - the guy is totally screwed.

    * All of the riders in the TdF know that if they are stage winner or tour leader that they will be tested. Had Floyd wanted to dope, he could have chosen something that at least had a chance of getting past the tests. Picking testosterone is just asking for trouble.
    They obviously have a technique of using testosterone which is not picked up on tests, just as they do with all other banned substances. They obviously screwed up with the administration on this occasion. Amazingly patronising that he thinks we will believe that the tests pick up everything. How stupid.

    * Testosterone was typically used during training to build muscle mass over several months. In the bad old days where the East German swim team used the stuff, they would use it prior to the event, and then stop prior to the event to give the body a chance to restore normal testosterone levels. A sudden spike in levels during an event isn't consistent with typical abuse patterns.
    Again, horribly patronising and the desperate statement of a guilty man. Everyone involved in cycling at that level knows that testosterone has begun to be used in small doses during competition to aid recovery. I'll find some links from the doctors on pro teams if people don't believe me.

    * Floyd's doctor said that he didn't think that there would even be any benefit to using testosterone on the day of an event.
    Floyd's doctor is most likely the guy who prescribed and administered the testosterone patch or cream. I would imagine he really has a pretty good idea of the benefits.

    Floyd is just coming up with simplistic arguments to keep the mainstream press and mainstream cycling fans 'believing' in him. It's sad. I would expect him to have a better defense than 'they can detect all usages of doping products in the tests' and 'why would anyone use testosterone anyway?'

    Floyd is screwed. I'm more convinced of his guilt that ever now. The sad thing is I now think he's being manipulated by forces larger than himself.

  19. #19
    pan y agua merlinextraligh's Avatar
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    Did you read the NY Times article this morning? Interesting account of how Landis' statments have been inconsistent. Before the positive test, the beer story was" just one beer, I hadn't given up yet") After the positive, at least 2 beers and 4 shots of JD.

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    Banana Pancakes furiousferret's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by merlinextraligh
    Did you read the NY Times article this morning? Interesting account of how Landis' statments have been inconsistent. Before the positive test, the beer story was" just one beer, I hadn't given up yet") After the positive, at least 2 beers and 4 shots of JD.
    Interesting. I do the same thing though, I'll say something to match my story before. Not necessarily a lie but inconsistent. He did claim to drink with several teammates so I'm sure Axel Merckx and Robbie Hunter can clear that up.

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    I want to believe he didn't take anything, but it sure doesn't look good.

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    <<20 years from now when floyd is fat like lemond, a new study will come out showing how spikes like that can naturally occur. But by then it will be too late.>>

    Yes! That is so possible! Maybe even probable....

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    My toilet-Floyd's future
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    I'm sure Axel Merckx and Robbie Hunter can clear that up.
    Yah - I'd really trust their testimony

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    Still A Floyd Fan

    Say it ain't so, Floyd! Oh. He did. Kind of.

    Part of the suspicion has been because Of Floyd's reaction to all this. He has acted guiltily. Changed his story. He should have taken a lesson from the Master (Mr. Armstrong, Sir) and gone on the attack. Announced the result himself. Yelled out his innocence at the top of his lungs. Threatened to sue everybody in sight. Pledged to fight to the last spoke.

    He went from the pits to the ultimate high in 24 hours. An emotional and physiological roller coaster. Who knows how all that might have impacted his hormone balance. (But 11:1??)

    But ya know, he has acted so guiltily he might not be!

  25. #25
    Senior Member Karlotta's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MaryAnn
    <<20 years from now when floyd is fat like lemond, a new study will come out showing how spikes like that can naturally occur. But by then it will be too late.>>

    Yes! That is so possible! Maybe even probable....
    And they'll have figured out a way to find out what OTHER dope he was on...

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