Blaireau

I think so too, but watch out if teamate Kloden is in good form. Right on about the getting caught doping caveat. Hey, you never know

reef58

I agree with Vino, but he does have a reckless personality. If he rides smart he finishes at the top.

Levi did finish 5th or 6th whichever way you look at it even when Lance, Basso, and Ullrich were in the race. Considering how he has a much better team than he had when he did that a podium spot is not out of the question.

I don't think he looked good at the TOC. He basically rode Disco into the ground to eek out the win. He looked better at the TOG, but that doesn't mean much.

Richard

marin1

I think everyones dream would be Vino and Voigt in a two man break destroying each other.

adamfresno

Was that amstel or LBL??

Blaireau

Who voted sor Basso again ?
He won't be riding.
If VIno does, he'll win. promises to be one hell of a Tour. Best in years, best since 1997, that's fo sure

NotAsFat

Why would you wish that on Levi? If he wins, the French will just accuse him of doping. They've done it to every American TdF champion since Lemond.

songfta

And that's a big "if." Vino doesn't know how to ride a tactically sound race. Sure, at the Vuelta last year he did, but the field there paled in comparison to that of the Tour: a major lack of talent depth, and Vino was the class of the bunch. But the Astana team didn't do a whole heck of a lot for his cause, and he's lucky that there wasn't a big group of riders to challenge him into reckless riding.

But at the Tour, Vino has not yet shown that he has any tactical logic to his riding. He blows himself up by constantly attacking, which hasn't allowed him to win. Sure, he's hit the podium once, but I don't think that raises him to the de facto favorite this year. Where's the consistency of record to back this up?

Klöden has shown greatness in the past, too, but just the once - and with Ullrich as a teammate, and a strong T-Mobile team, to boot. I don't think that Astana is nearly as deep, or that Vino will work for anybody other than himself.

Wanna loot at an outside threat? Look at Rasmussen. He can climb like a mountain goat, which works well on this year's course. Sure, his time trial skills are suspect, but he's quite good in the hills and has a good team to back him up.

But my money is on Levi. Yes, some of it is loyalty to a friend, but a lot of it is that he has a strong record in the Tour (last year was an anomaly due to gastric distress), a strong team to back him up, and is one of the smartest tacticians in the field. Don't count him out, as he's hungry for a win and knows that this year is his best chance for victory.

Just my $0.02 - YMMV.

harlond

I picked Kloden myself, but considering that Levi has finished 6th in the TdF against a stronger field than will take the start this year, I don't see how anyone can conclude he is not one of the riders who can win this year. Looking at those likely to start as of now, I think Levi is clearly one of the 5-7 favorites, particularly with a stronger team behind him than he has generally had. That's not to say there aren't reasons to doubt that he will in fact win, but his record marks him as a candidate as strong as many of the others.

adamfresno

I can see your view on Vino, but that was for T Mobile who was not riding for him and even would chase him down...Kloden has a big chance and has showed great form this year. T mobile was Jan Ulrich and he was always the priority...Astana is solid this year, thats one of the main reason to pick Vino.

I Agree, Rasmussen is a threat and should put the hurt on a lot of people. LEts just hope he can stay on his bike on the TT.

This year is a lot of peoples best chance and Levi will be up there...Who ever it is, it will be a hell of a race.

ILUVUK

Markus Fothen

EURO-TRASH

im pulling for kloden now, just dont know if hes the one i'd put my money on

adamfresno

What about last years winner, Oscar Pereiro?

USAZorro

Pereiro received a 29 minute gift last year. He has the talent to perennially finish in the top 20, but last year was definitely an anomaly. Of course, this could all change again when that Operation Puerto list gets acted upon. I've heard some speculate that Oscar might be on Saiz's list too.

Blaireau

Really, this is going to mean a drastic re-shuffling of the hierarchy in the peloton.
Its kind of sad to see that most of the elite riders (and the not-so elite) are embroilled in doping scandals.... Perhaps we will get a real surprise this year at the Tour, especially if riders are dettered from doping (pipe dream?). I think it partially depends on the outcome of the Landis affair. A "not guilty" verdict would, I believe send a disastrous message.
Qui vivra verra.....

Robert Gardner

From Velonews!!!!


LeMond says Landis admitted doping
By Jason Sumner
VeloNews.com
This report filed May 17, 2007
Three-time Tour de France winner Greg LeMond testified under oath Thursday that Floyd Landis admitted to illegal doping during a cell phone conversation last August.


Lemond appeared at Pepperdine law school on Thursday


photo: Agence France Presse - 2007


According to LeMond, he and Landis had a lengthy conversation last August where LeMond advised the 2006 Tour champ that if he was guilty of illegal doping, it would be best for him and the sport to come clean. LeMond said that Landis responded by asking "What good would it do?"

LeMond went on to reveal that he told Landis that keeping dark secrets can ruin one's life, then relayed his own story of being sexually abused as a child, a story LeMond said he had shared with very few people and never spoke of publicly until Thursday at the arbitration hearing at Pepperdine University.

The drama continued when LeMond, under direct questioning from USADA attorney Matt Barnett, said he received a phone call Wednesday night from a mysterious caller, who identified himself only as "Uncle Ron."

LeMond said he was perplexed at first, but that changed to concern when the caller made direct references to the conversation about sexual abuse that he had with Landis last August.

"Greg, this is your uncle and I'm going to be there tomorrow," LeMond quoted the caller as saying. "I'm going to be there and we can talk about how we used to hide your weenie."

The three-time Tour champ said the caller quickly hung up, and when LeMond redialed he got a voicemail message identifying the phone's owner as "Will."

"I got the picture right away," said LeMond. "I figured this was an effort at intimidation."


Landis listens to former Tour winner Greg LeMond testify on Thursday.


photo: Agence France Presse - 2007


LeMond said he tried calling back several times, finally getting an answer from someone who identified himself only as "Bill." The conversation was inconclusive, and LeMond hung up and then called police. A subsequent check of the phone number that was saved on LeMond's mobile phone revealed that it belonged to Landis's business manager Will Geoghegan.

USADA counsel Barnett then pointed Geoghegan who was present in the courtroom, seated directly behind the Landis legal team.

Barnett proceeded to place a Witness Tampering report against Geoghegan up in the courtroom's overhead projector. Witness tampering is a felony in most states, including California. Meanwhile, Landis defense team's lead attorney Maurice Suh spent several minutes conferring with Geoghegan, whose face and neck were noticeably red.

Throughout it all, Landis sat off to the left of his legal team, a blank expression on his face. The '06 Tour champ was dressed in all black (tie, shirt and suit), following three days during which he had sported a yellow tie, but said privately he would wear black if and when LeMond testified.

Barnett stepped aside, and the floor was turned to Landis attorney Howard Jacobs. Jacobs quickly trained his line of questioning to the very public dispute LeMond has had with seven-time Tour winner Lance Armstrong. This brought a quick objection from USADA's Barnett, who claimed the Armstrong-LeMond squabble and testimony LeMond gave in a civil case between Armstrong and a Texas-bases insurance company had no bearing on the matters in Malibu.

LeMond's own attorney, also present at the hearing, told the three-person arbitration panel that would not permit his client to speak about the Armstrong matter.

Jacobs countered by asking the panel to strike all of LeMond's testimony if he could not pursue the line of questioning. That led the panel to call a 15-minute recess to discuss what course to take.

Blaireau

Wow. That's messed up. Landis's business manager Will Geoghegan is one big idiot. Had he not made that threatening call, Lemond's story would have been inadmissible as hearsay, more than likely, either during the hearing or on appeal later on. Now, its a different issue, the story can likely withstand the motion to strike. Not to mention that "anonymous" call lends credence to Lemond's version.
I always believed Landis doped. This is just one more brick in the wall.

adamfresno

Landis should of took the advice of LEmond. Look what Tyler hamlton did, he could of came clean and could be riding in the GIro right now and put all of this behind him. But no he had to fight and claim he was innocent...now he looks like an even bigger liar and is not riding. Thats what I like about Millar, he did the crime and the time and said he doped. I respect people who can admit they were wrong and did a bad thing.

Blaireau

+ 1

Trouduc

Its hard to tell who will be riding this year's Tour de France since so many riders are under a cloud of suspicions...
Assuming that all of the above can ride, I think that Vino is the best bet. He'll have a decent enough team; he won a grand tour before; he has fighting spirit; and he will have Kloden as a super-domestique. Plus he's got panache: he's lots of fun to watch

iluvfreebeer

Will they even have a race?
They're in denial about last years race.
And Operation Puerto keeps rearing it's ugly head.

It will be interesting to see if there's more fallout from the Giro

wvxc

Give me Cunego FTW.

adamastor

They will race, because Tour de France (and it's the only race in the world) is larger than cyclists. Tour organisers are under control of whom they invite. If there are Pro Tour teams missing because of doping affairs, they'll hire other teams. Because, even with John Doe on the bike, there will be huge crowds on the roads. Of course sponsors won't follow straight away. But after 2 weeks of race, the public, and the television viewers will have discovered a newbie "hero" in yellow. And they'll support him same way they did last year for Landis, or Armstrong in 99, and Pantani in 98.

Trouduc

Herewith the actual odds from a selection of British Bookmakers. Note that for them, the favourite at 3/1 is Vino, and that Leipheimer is an oustider at 15/1.

Alexander Vinokurov 3
Alejandro Valverde Belmonte 3.5
Andreas Kloden 7
Carlos Sastre Candil 12
Levi Leipheimer 15
Denis Menchov 17
Cadel Evans 21
Janez Brajkovic 21
Alberto Contador Velasco 26
Frank Schleck 26
Michael Rogers 26
Thomas Danielson 34
Yaroslav Popovych 34
Andrey Kashechkin 41
Koldo Gil Perez 41
Markus Fothen 41
Franck Schleck 51
Michael Boogerd 51
Riccardo Ricco 51
Christophe Moreau 67

Hezz

It will be interesting to compare this list to the actual results when the race has completed.

adamastor

Sorry for being a bit nasty, Trouduc, but which Frank Schleck would you put money on from your list? The one at 26/1, or the one at 51/1 ;o) . And no, Andy won't be there...