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Old 07-15-07, 10:17 AM   #1
Blaireau
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Rasmusen on going for the GC ( Dutch TV)

When asked about competing for the GC now that he's ahead, Rasmussen said, without missing a beat: "it would stupid not to."


I got to say, the TdF sans Armstrong just makes for a more fun and open race.
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Old 07-15-07, 10:19 AM   #2
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It should be interesting to see how much he attacks in future mountain stages.

I don't think his lead is good enough over the current GC threats if it came down to a TT.
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Old 07-15-07, 10:22 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomus
It should be interesting to see how much he attacks in future mountain stages.

I don't think his lead is good enough over the current GC threats if it came down to a TT.

Depends on how the others do.... But the big unknown is his team status.... Rob-a-bank do have an official contender...
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Old 07-15-07, 12:45 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blaireau
Depends on how the others do.... But the big unknown is his team status.... Rob-a-bank do have an official contender...
Rasmussen AKA "Chicken" is free to race however he will, and Rabobank would be stupid not to let him do so; The Polka dotted jersey, and one, perhaps two, spectacular mountain wins, and some days in yellow are fine palmares for any team. Rabobank doesn't expect him to carry waterbottles or tow Menchov, but he isn't a "protected" rider, since Rabobank would attack his lead if they thought that was the best thing to do for Menchov as was seen today.

It is of course highly unlikely that Chicken would get close to the final podium, but only highly unlikely, so the GC contenters will have to watch him now and try to limit his lead if he successfully makes a long mountain breakaway again like today, and that can only be an advantage to Rabobank and Menchov.

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Old 07-15-07, 12:52 PM   #5
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He blows away the field like that on a couple more mountain stages and he won't need much of a TT performance. This would be very interesting!
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Old 07-15-07, 12:59 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by interested
Rasmussen AKA "Chicken" is free to race however he will, and Rabobank would be stupid not to let him do so; The Polka dotted jersey, and one, perhaps two, spectacular mountain wins, and some days in yellow are fine palmares for any team. Rabobank doesn't expect him to carry waterbottles or tow Menchov, but he isn't a "protected" rider, since Rabobank would attack his lead if they thought that was the best thing to do for Menchov as was seen today.

It is of course highly unlikely that Chicken would get close to the final podium, but only highly unlikely, so the GC contenters will have to watch him now and try to limit his lead if he successfully makes a long mountain breakaway again like today, and that can only be an advantage to Rabobank and Menchov.

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I don't think it "highly unlikely" that Rasmussen will get close to the podium. On the contrary.
A couple more climbs like this and he's up there for a good long time. And then a not-disastrous TT performance would alter the calculations that lead people to believe that he's not a serious GC threat.
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Old 07-15-07, 01:20 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Randomus
It should be interesting to see how much he attacks in future mountain stages.

I don't think his lead is good enough over the current GC threats if it came down to a TT.
But if he continues to take BIG chunks of time on future mountain stages, he can walk his bike in the TT and still win the GC.

... Brad
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Old 07-15-07, 01:23 PM   #8
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imo Chicken is in a whole 'nother league when it comes to climbing... i think he could win the tour with his great climbing.
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Old 07-15-07, 01:26 PM   #9
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He won't keep taking chunks of time on the mountains -- without losing chunks of time on a subsequent ride.


(Edit to add missing helping verb & negator. D'oh!)
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Old 07-15-07, 01:33 PM   #10
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If he gets 15 minutes from the TT guys on the mountains, he should win. 12 minutes would make it close. Its not impossible.
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Old 07-15-07, 01:34 PM   #11
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I just believe it was a silly question...of course he will...like duh ! But to be bombarded with all those silly questions at that point he was even smarter to state: I have nothing to say now!!!
Another interesting race l today. Its very refreshing to have new names coming and picking up wins like yesterdays, Linus Gerdemann from T Mobile, at 24 he still has a long way to go and if he does not become Ulrichisticize we shall see more of him as years go by. If Rasmussen keeps it up, although a sort of long shot, he could podium. Anyhow, Valverde is closing in..... if Alejandro races smart I wud put my money on him.... still long way to go though!!!!
And I could kiss the feet of the dutch network exec. that decided to stream the tour so that people living in places where cycling is almost unkown can follow it !!! (eventhough Dutch is impossible to understand!!)
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Old 07-15-07, 01:40 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by godspiral
If he gets 15 minutes from the TT guys on the mountains, he should win. 12 minutes would make it close. Its not impossible.

12 minutes should be ample if Rasmussen can avoiding falling off his bike.... What was it? Three times?
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Old 07-15-07, 01:43 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blaireau
I don't think it "highly unlikely" that Rasmussen will get close to the podium. On the contrary.
A couple more climbs like this and he's up there for a good long time. And then a not-disastrous TT performance would alter the calculations that lead people to believe that he's not a serious GC threat.
He may gain a few more minutes in the mountains, at least he will try, but the GC teams will limit his time gains there, His TT abilities are very bad, and he hasn't done anything about that to my knowledge, so he will lose a lot of time on +100km TT, probably more than 10 minutes, much more time than he could gain in the mountains.
Still, he will fight on even if the chance is small, and that will probably result in some interesting stages (Especially stage 14 +16).


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Old 07-15-07, 02:06 PM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by interested
...AKA "Chicken"... that Chicken...
Quote:
Originally Posted by deadly downtube
...imo Chicken is in...
Please, people. It's "The Chicken" to you.

Or, more precisely: The Chicken from Tølløse.
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Old 07-15-07, 02:25 PM   #15
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Everyone expects Chicken to have a disaterous TT like he did in 2005, and I doubt if it will be that bad. He will lose time in the TT's, but the Yellow Jersy inspires. The best I can remember one of the time trials is not flat, so that will give him even a little more confidence. The GC leaders are playing a dangerous game with him.

GC Guys Left:

Valverde can put big time into the chicken
Sasre Can put some time into the chicken, but he is not a very good time trialist either
Vino is hurting, and may show poorly in the first TT at least
Levi screwed the pooch last year in the TT, and may do it again
Evans can gain time
Moreau can gain time

The GC guys are going to have to crack chicken on a climb one of these days. I would not want to go into the final time trial down 3 minutes to him no matter how bad he is.

Richard
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Old 07-15-07, 02:40 PM   #16
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Considering that the main field only gained about a minute over the last climb-while riding together no less, I'd say Rasmussen will be able to climb with or away from the best of them. It certainly wasn't a Virenque style grab for the polka-dots. He was defiantly riding for time, and the other gc men might not be able to stop him from grabbing even more in the mountains.

Rasmussen and to a lesser extent Mayo are the only guys to ride impressively today. Vino is clearly hurting, Kloden is too dumb to ride for himself, and Lipheimer had the same big talk but small results he always brings to the tour. While the guys in the break with Moreau may have had the strength, they played the strategy horribly by not working together to knock the other guys out of the GC picture and save time against Rasmussen.

Last edited by roadgator; 07-15-07 at 02:46 PM.
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Old 07-15-07, 03:03 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blaireau
12 minutes should be ample if Rasmussen can avoiding falling off his bike.... What was it? Three times?
At least three times. It was painful to watch, as we all remember. Painful and fun.

After that tour, Armstrong was on Charlie Rose and told a little story that his son was watching the race on a monitor. When he saw Rasmussen fall one of the times; he asked Sheryl Crow "do you think daddy is going to stop and help that guy?"
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Old 07-15-07, 04:57 PM   #18
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Menchov is a TT guy AFAIK, and positioned decently.
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Old 07-15-07, 04:58 PM   #19
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Correct, but I was tired of typing

Richard

Quote:
Originally Posted by botto
"big time?" doubt it.



about the same as valverde.



we'll see.



correct.



some.



correct.

btw, you forgot to mention Kashechkin, Contador, Schleck, and maybe even Mayo.
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Old 07-15-07, 05:25 PM   #20
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If Rasmussen makes podium, it'd be great, but I think just topping his 2005 7th place finish is more likely. He'll keep gaining a little time in the mountains whether the peloton allows him to or not. I'd love to see Mayo pocket a bunch of time in the mountains too, but his TT skills aren't great either, if memory serves.
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Old 07-15-07, 06:44 PM   #21
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It seems one reason why Rasmussen got such a lead was that a bunch of the GC candidates didn't wind up working together.

My guess is they will try to shut Rasmussen down if he takes off like that again. Considering his climbing skills (and less than stellar TTing), it would be a minor tactical error to let him get into any more breakaways.
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Old 07-15-07, 07:01 PM   #22
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It's going to be a lot harder from here on out for Rassmussen to get chuncks of time.

Also, he's failed to prove so far that 1) he can ride consistently day to day over 3 weeks without losing chunks of time, and 2) that he can TT.

That said, this could set up a very interesting dynamic with the issue of whether the Chicken can TT well enough to hold a lead could be very close.

Also Rabobank now has 2 cards to play with Menchov, and Rassmussen.

Tthe irony is that the psot Armstrong TDF's are way more intriguing, and few Americans will notice.

Last edited by merlinextraligh; 07-15-07 at 07:09 PM.
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Old 07-15-07, 07:08 PM   #23
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Seems to me that Rasmussen was allowed to gain such a lead because the GC contenders don't view him as a serious threat. Now they will be forced to pay attention to his moves and limit his gains in the mountains. This is a ploy by Rabobank to help Menchov.
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Old 07-15-07, 07:17 PM   #24
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It would be nice to see a tour win from an old skool climbing machine rather than a time-trialler ok climber guy.
What always surprises me is that a lot of pure climbers like Mercado or Zubeldia get dropped by the leaders on these stages.
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Old 07-15-07, 07:55 PM   #25
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In Levi's defense, he did have mechanical problems today and he claimed he was marking, more or less Kloden and Vino, but if he was a real contender, he should have been putting time into those two like others and not be satisfied to ride their wheel all day. I keep waiting for a break out day from him and me thinks it's not coming.
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