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Old 07-16-07, 04:57 PM   #1
Leaky Gas
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Rest Day #1 Prediction

Not exactly going out on a limb, here, but your 2007 winner appears in the following list:

4 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 2.51
5 Andrey Kashechkin (Kaz) Astana 2.52
6 Cadel Evans (Aus) Predictor - Lotto 2.53
7 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2r Prévoyance 3.06
8 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 3.10
9 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC 3.14
10 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 3.19
11 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC 3.35
12 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 3.46
13 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 3.53
14 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 3.54
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Old 07-16-07, 05:07 PM   #2
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My Pick,
Valverde with Frank Schleck being the sleeper..
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Old 07-16-07, 05:16 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leaky Gas
Not exactly going out on a limb, here, but your 2007 winner appears in the following list:

4 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 2.51
5 Andrey Kashechkin (Kaz) Astana 2.52
6 Cadel Evans (Aus) Predictor - Lotto 2.53
7 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2r Prévoyance 3.06
8 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 3.10
9 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC 3.14
10 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 3.19
11 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC 3.35
12 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 3.46
13 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 3.53
14 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 3.54
I'm not ready to rule out Rasmussen or Vino.
I would rule out Levi and Pereiro.
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Old 07-16-07, 05:18 PM   #4
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While he's still not the favorite, I certainly wouldn't leave Rasmussen out of a list of eleven right now. Most sports books I checked have him as 2nd, behind Valverde, right now. If ever there was year for a specialist to steal an overall, this is it.
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Old 07-16-07, 05:35 PM   #5
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While I would rule out Pereiro, there is no way I am honestly ready to rule out Levi.
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Old 07-16-07, 05:49 PM   #6
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My pick for the win is Kloden if he can finish. If he has to call it quits or starts suffering I may pull for Moreau. I would like to see Rasmussen win, but that is a long shot.

If no one decides to test Vino's legs tomorrow then it may bite them in the butt down the road.

It is too early to rule out Levi.

In hindsite Contador would be stiff competition in the KOM chase.

I just can't bring myself to say Valverde for the win. I just don't like the guy, and I don't even have a good reason.

Richard
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Old 07-16-07, 05:53 PM   #7
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I would love to see a specialist like Mayo or The Chicken win the TdF, but I am still really doubtful. I still hope that Vino will be able to provide some real excitement before this tour is over, but don't know if he has the physical ability to do so.

I am curious to see how much (if at all) the GC will change after tomorrow's stage.
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Old 07-16-07, 07:34 PM   #8
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I'm no fan of the Chicken (and have ranted ad infinitum in past years about how he has no chance to win) However, I'm not ready to take him off a moderately short list just yet.

In fact, I'm not sure I wouldn't take him ahead of Leipheimer right now, if I had to pick 8 or 10 possible winners.
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Old 07-16-07, 08:27 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VanceMac
While he's still not the favorite, I certainly wouldn't leave Rasmussen out of a list of eleven right now. Most sports books I checked have him as 2nd, behind Valverde, right now. If ever there was year for a specialist to steal an overall, this is it.

yes, but i would say thats more for a TT specialist than a climber. only three uphill finishes (typically 4 or 5 IIRC) and over 100 KM of ITT.

but it definetly is wide open this year, i wont make a pic myself, but for now im rooting for Rasmussen since he's not playing games and just riding away from everyone else.
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Old 07-16-07, 09:32 PM   #10
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If Bruyneel gives Contador the green light, I think it will be a great dogfight between him, Valverde, Rasmussen and whomever emerges from CSC and Astana. I think that the riders who have the best shot in the Pyrenees are Mayo and Contador. Considering this, and the contenders' TT abilities, I, perhaps somewhat wishfully, think that Contador has a slightly better chance to win than the others.
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Old 07-16-07, 11:08 PM   #11
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1 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 39.37.42 ----top 5
2 Linus Gerdemann (Ger) T-Mobile Team 0.43
3 Iban Mayo Diez (Spa) Saunier Duval - Prodir 2.39
4 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 2.51 ---- winner
5 Andrey Kashechkin (Kaz) Astana 2.52
6 Cadel Evans (Aus) Predictor - Lotto 2.53 ----top 5
7 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2r Prévoyance 3.06 ----top 5
8 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 3.10
9 Frank Schleck (Lux) Team CSC 3.14
10 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 3.19
11 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC 3.35
12 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 3.46 ----top 5
13 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 3.53
14 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 3.54
15 Haimar Zubeldia Agirre (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 4.00

I still think it's early to right off the strong contenders that can TT. Vino may come back explosively and with counter attacks from Kloden and Kashechkin, could seriously hurt the peloton.

This will be chicken's best tour. His TTing still sucks but it couldn't be any worse than that meltdown from a couple of years ago. In fact I'm sure he's learned from that and is mentally stronger.
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Old 07-17-07, 06:31 AM   #12
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I'm still trying to figure out why valverde is even IN this tour. Wasn't his name on "the list?"
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