patentcad

The Dane lost about FOURTEEN MINUTES in the two individual TT's in last year's Tour de France. He might have to TT better than that to win, eh? Perhaps he will draw inspiration from the Yellow Johnny.

Dead Extra #2

The chicken has ZERO chance of a GC win.

cslone

Mellow Johnny, and yes you are correct.

merlinextraligh

I'd say the Chicken has a very slim chance.

Last year's performance is not a fair comparison. He was riding for Menchov,and focused on KOM. Therefore no incentive to work in the TT's.

I don't think it's at all likely he can win this year. For one, he has to get to the point that Rabobank is working for him and not Rasmussen working for Menchov.

However, if he could gain another chunck of time in the Pyranees, and limit losses in the TTs, I wouldn't bet the ranch against him.

waitasec

he went from 3rd (podium) to 7th because fo a TT. I think he had incentive for that TT.

merlinextraligh

^^^^
1) Presumably he won't make the mistake of riding a full on TT bike with a disc on a technical course again. (a major differnece that day was Armstrong made smarter equipment choices).

2) He may well start the next TT in yellow, which makes a difference from 3rd.

VanceMac

Disagree. Albi will be fun to watch.

roadwarrior

You could beat him. On a bike that where you got fitting advice on this freakin' forum.

That's how bad he is...

Keith99

Incentive perhaps, hope no way. To stay on hte podium he would have had to stay within about a minute of Jan in an ITT. You can count the guys who managed that on the day on one hand. Also there is a difference between what a non TT guy can do when by good fortune he finds himself highly placed, but poorly prepaired and waht he can do when he finds himself well placed and well prepaired.

This is not to say he will win a TT or even come close, that would be a joke. But he may be able to limit his losses and the day after the first TT is a very nasty mountian stage. That combo may crack a lot of riders. But the combo gives him a chance. I won't write him off until Sunday unless he cracks in the TT.

erader

pantani couldn't TT either...until he was in yellow !

ed rader

godspiral

But the last TT, he was going to lose podium even if he rode 4 minutes faster. He'll definitely need a good breakaway on another stage to pad up lead.

vic32amg

keep in mind he ofter lurks.. thats about it. this is the first year he is going for the mellow yellow. I think he is better than many suspect. remember , he is usually all about the polka dot jersey. Time trial doesn't matter for that, simply points. he would often chill in the pack or even lose time on flat stages and just rack up some Mountain Points when they mattered most. I don't think he can win, not with the scumbag leech Valverde and Evans and Contrador being so strong currently. Sastre will win anyway... he's a great time trialist.....yeah right... but he's good enuff at it.

ed073

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzeknUUhRoE

vic32amg

that video is perfect

maalea

I forgot about how he almost wiped out a fan on that last crash.

GGDub

While I agree, he has a slim chance. Do you actually believe he was going all out in the TT's last year? If you do, then you don't understand stage races. Only those with a GC chance or a chance at winning the TT go all out. Everyone else treats it like a rest day. Last year, all chickenman cared about was the king of the mountains, hence he road the TT easy. He still sucks compared to the others, but not 14 minutes sucks.

ednwireland

dont forget he may have been paractising i dont think any pro would want what happened last year again
found this on eurosport
https://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/170720...tt-chance.html
mind you i've got bikes hanging in my shed doesnt mean i can ride them fast !

SaintAndrew

chicken's chances to win are definitely slim, but they are there. obviously he needs to ride the best 2 TT's we've seen out of him so far and then assrape everyone in the pyrenees. i love it. it sure is alot more interesting then watching lance beat everyone in the mountains then the time trials.

superslomo

I think there's a good chance that he's been seriously playing possum on the issue of the time trial. No way to tell unless he does or doesn't blow up in the ITTs coming up, but it would be interesting if everyone let him get away with the assumption that he wouldn't keep up later.

reef58

No he is not playing possum.

Richard

SaintAndrew

lolololol ahahahaahaha if he's playing possum on the TT issue, then it would be THE most complex, longest implementation of strategy ever seen in any sport. lol the guy just isn't a TTer- just look at him. hopefully he can perform better than he has though.

Keith99

Uh, there are no more mountian stages before the first ITT. All the DSs are going to assume he has been working on TTs, but won;t be assuming that he has some miracle improvement. Where can playing possum come in? If he stays with his past performance then they can let him go in the Pyrenees, at least once because he will be minutes back. Then he would have to be near the top on the second TT. If he had that kind of TT ability he would play things straight and walk away with the Tour.

This weekend will tell all re Rasmussen. First the TT and then next day the mountian stage that has the best profile for him to gain major time. (Back to back HC climbs to a mountiantop finish with virtually no flat between them). Someone cracks on Sunday. The question is who.

reef58

+1 I suspect we may see a crack everyday in the mountains and time trials. Man what a tour.

Richard

superslomo

He mentioned in an interview that he "had not worked at all on time trials", yet there's another rider who is saying he definitely has been.

It's not that he needs to turn into some time trialing demon, it's just that if you avoid falling every ten seconds it takes a lot more to put time into you.

reef58

To win the tour he pretty much has to turn into a time trialing demon. The time trials are very decisive. He can't expect to lose 3 to 4 minutes in each one, and still have a chance.

Richard