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Old 07-17-07, 08:04 PM   #1
daytonian
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Kloden will win...

A comparison of last years TT times. Obviously things can change in a year. Gunchar won both so times are down from GC on 52 and 57km TT's. Bold is total time lost to Gunchar.
52km 57km Total
Kloden 1.43 .41 2.24
Evans 1.49 3.43 5.32
Sastre 2.10 4.42 7.22
Levi 6.05 6.02 12.07
Rass 6.29 8.51 15.20
Moreau 2.03 5.33 7.36
Menchov 1.43 4.33 6.16
Mayo 5.36 abandoned

See a pattern by second TT? Everyone is tired but Kloden is stronger. You can compare with current GC and decide who's gonna get pinched by 2nd TT. Just some hard numbers so that when Phil and Paul are saying they don't know who will win it is because if they brought this up there would be no suspense.
Looks like Evans has the best chance. Vallverde crashed last year so he's a wildcard w/ Contador and Mayo - he can climb but I doubt he's become Jan Jr. on the flats.

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Old 07-17-07, 08:44 PM   #2
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all these times are nonsense. First of all Levi has made major improvements and so has Sastre (in technique) . last year different roads different circumstances. Have you looked at the TT stages? they do not favor traditional TT'er only. They have some decent climbs and more twisties..
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Old 07-17-07, 09:29 PM   #3
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there is absolutely no doubt that if the TdF were won by the best GT rider, then klodi would win. however, there is some question as to whether astana will give him the go ahead to ride for himself, much less support. i have to say though, the fact that klodie didn't wait for vino again is good sign.
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Old 07-17-07, 09:33 PM   #4
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I don't see any type of team conflict within Astana over leadership. I think it's all about getting on the podium, and Kloden is the team's best chance right now.

I would absolutely love to see Kloden finally win the TdF.
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Old 07-17-07, 09:34 PM   #5
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there is absolutely no doubt that if the TdF were won by the best GT rider, then klodi would win. however, there is some question as to whether astana will give him the go ahead to ride for himself, much less support. i have to say though, the fact that klodie didn't wait for vino again is good sign.
Word. Kloden already gave up about a minute supporting Vino. But Kashechkin was in the group with Vino today, so he wasn't all alone. I wouldn't put it past Astana to call Kloden back again if Vino is caught out in no man's land solo again. Hopefully, they've realized that they're best chance to win (or podium) is to throw support to Kloden.
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Old 07-17-07, 09:34 PM   #6
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I don't see any type of team conflict within Astana over leadership. I think it's all about getting on the podium, and Kloden is the team's best chance right now.

I would absolutely love to see Kloden finally win the TdF.
then why did they have klodie wait for vino on stage 8, and why did they have kashechkin pacing vino behind klodie today?
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Old 07-17-07, 09:40 PM   #7
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then why did they have klodie wait for vino on stage 8, and why did they have kashechkin pacing vino behind klodie today?

because even tho kloden has superior talent he does not have the wherewithal to assume the mantle of leadership, imo .

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Old 07-17-07, 09:46 PM   #8
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he doesn't need it this year. last year when he wasn't even in form he only came in third to pereiro, who got that idiotic breakaway (the mistake of the entire peloton), and roid landis, who was on some really killer gear all year. this year, he doesn't even have to deal with any ultra hot racer like flandis. do you really think there's any way ras ciould put enough time into him in the mountains, or valverde could get enough time bonuses, or karpets could gain that much time in the ITT's? it's so his Tour to lose it's not even funny.
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Old 07-17-07, 10:10 PM   #9
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he doesn't need it this year. last year when he wasn't even in form he only came in third to pereiro, who got that idiotic breakaway (the mistake of the entire peloton), and roid landis, who was on some really killer gear all year. this year, he doesn't even have to deal with any ultra hot racer like flandis. do you really think there's any way ras ciould put enough time into him in the mountains, or valverde could get enough time bonuses, or karpets could gain that much time in the ITT's? it's so his Tour to lose it's not even funny.
the losers always have the best excuses for not winning. vino has everyone buffaloed that he deserves to win even tho he hasn't shown superior form.

man we really are getting desparate these days. where's claudio chiapucci and zenon jaskula when you need them !

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Old 07-17-07, 10:36 PM   #10
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because even tho kloden has superior talent he does not have the wherewithal to assume the mantle of leadership, imo .
With race radio and the constant communication between riders and DS, why does the GC contender need to be a leader?
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Old 07-17-07, 10:39 PM   #11
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the losers always have the best excuses for not winning. vino has everyone buffaloed that he deserves to win even tho he hasn't shown superior form.

man we really are getting desparate these days. where's claudio chiapucci and zenon jaskula when you need them !

ed rader
i'm not talking excuses, i'm talking klodi's great chances of winning this year, and not only that, vino's near lack thereof.
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Old 07-17-07, 10:51 PM   #12
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Who has been buffaloed? I think the only rider that deserves to win is the winner.

This tour is hard to predict. I hate to admit it but the best rider so far is Valverde. Kloden is probably the best time trialist in the GC contenders along with Evans. I suspect that there will be a lot of surprises before Paris. Vino will probably try a suicide breakaway if he heals up. It will probably fail. Kloden could start having tailbone problems and get dropped. Valverde may have a bad day in the mountains, or a less than stellar time trial. If Rasmussen survives the TT leading the GC then he will be attacked merciously, and may crack. Rasmussen's team may not support him 100% after his comments. Levi could have another poor time trial. And Yada yada yada. That is why this year's tour is so exciting.

Richard

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the losers always have the best excuses for not winning. vino has everyone buffaloed that he deserves to win even tho he hasn't shown superior form.

man we really are getting desparate these days. where's claudio chiapucci and zenon jaskula when you need them !

ed rader
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Old 07-17-07, 11:04 PM   #13
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Who has been buffaloed? I think the only rider that deserves to win is the winner.

This tour is hard to predict. I hate to admit it but the best rider so far is Valverde. Kloden is probably the best time trialist in the GC contenders along with Evans. I suspect that there will be a lot of surprises before Paris. Vino will probably try a suicide breakaway if he heals up. It will probably fail. Kloden could start having tailbone problems and get dropped. Valverde may have a bad day in the mountains, or a less than stellar time trial. If Rasmussen survives the TT leading the GC then he will be attacked merciously, and may crack. Rasmussen's team may not support him 100% after his comments. Levi could have another poor time trial. And Yada yada yada. That is why this year's tour is so exciting.

Richard

everyone. vino was heavily favored to win this tour.

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Old 07-17-07, 11:19 PM   #14
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everyone. vino was heavily favored to win this tour.

ed rader

Fooled, yeah, what the hell were we all thinking, that Vino could win

Heal up Vino.
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Old 07-17-07, 11:45 PM   #15
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Fooled, yeah, what the hell were we all thinking, that Vino could win

Heal up Vino.
another year...another excuse .

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Old 07-17-07, 11:48 PM   #16
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There is a difference between being the favorite, and "deserving" to win.

Richard
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Old 07-18-07, 12:01 AM   #17
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another year...another excuse .

ed rader
What was his excuse last year? Hardly an excuse!
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Old 07-18-07, 12:18 AM   #18
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What was his excuse last year? Hardly an excuse!

i know the crash will be the excuse this year !

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Old 07-18-07, 04:10 AM   #19
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all these times are nonsense. First of all Levi has made major improvements and so has Sastre (in technique) . last year different roads different circumstances. Have you looked at the TT stages? they do not favor traditional TT'er only. They have some decent climbs and more twisties..
Nonesense? lol. They are from the TDF last year. Nonesense is thinking Levi has made major TT improvements.
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Old 07-18-07, 04:20 AM   #20
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A comparison of last years TT times. Obviously things can change in a year. Gunchar won both so times are down from GC on 52 and 57km TT's. Bold is total time lost to Gunchar.
52km 57km Total
Kloden 1.43 .41 2.24
Evans 1.49 3.43 5.32
Sastre 2.10 4.42 7.22
Levi 6.05 6.02 12.07
Rass 6.29 8.51 15.20
Moreau 2.03 5.33 7.36
Menchov 1.43 4.33 6.16
Mayo 5.36 abandoned

See a pattern by second TT? Everyone is tired but Kloden is stronger. You can compare with current GC and decide who's gonna get pinched by 2nd TT. Just some hard numbers so that when Phil and Paul are saying they don't know who will win it is because if they brought this up there would be no suspense.
Looks like Evans has the best chance. Vallverde crashed last year so he's a wildcard w/ Contador and Mayo - he can climb but I doubt he's become Jan Jr. on the flats.
Cool...let's let the riders know and they can all go to the beach and knock down some Petron and kick back.

Since it's a done deal...

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Old 07-18-07, 04:25 AM   #21
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Nonesense? lol. They are from the TDF last year. Nonesense is thinking Levi has made major TT improvements.
I guess we will wait and see. I am betting on the fact that Bruyneel knows what's going on. I also wonder if Levi really feels as bad as he is letting on.

See, at longer and more difficult races that last more than an hour, there's a lot of head games that are played. Also know that Levi had a disastrous TT last year. Despite that, he didn't quit and that showed me a lot.

There are only two people in the whole world that really know.

For the record, I don't think Levi can win the Tour, but I think he's a better rider now than he's been, probably since his Vuelta podium.
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Old 07-18-07, 04:33 AM   #22
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I guess we will wait and see. I am betting on the fact that Bruyneel knows what's going on. I also wonder if Levi really feels as bad as he is letting on.

See, at longer and more difficult races that last more than an hour, there's a lot of head games that are played. Also know that Levi had a disastrous TT last year. Despite that, he didn't quit and that showed me a lot.

There are only two people in the whole world that really know.

For the record, I don't think Levi can win the Tour, but I think he's a better rider now than he's been, probably since his Vuelta podium.
incorrect.

He had 2.

Levi won't podium.
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Old 07-18-07, 04:54 AM   #23
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If Kloden's win requires assitance from his team he's sunk...
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Old 07-18-07, 06:38 AM   #24
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then why did they have klodie wait for vino on stage 8, and why did they have kashechkin pacing vino behind klodie today?


By stage 8 they weren't ready to write off Vino. (and they may end up regretting having had Kloden wait.)

By Stage 9, they knew Vino's performance was sufficiently in doubt that they sent Kloden ahead.

By the end of Stage 9, Vino knew his chances were over, to the extent one of the toughest guys in the TDF broke into tears.

Part of the reason Vino knows its over for him, is that Astana now has to fully support Kloden.
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Old 07-18-07, 10:55 AM   #25
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incorrect.

He had 2.

Levi won't podium.
What's correct is he finished eight minutes ahead of Rasmussen last year despite riding like crap.

And Rasmussen was in excess of 28 minutes off the lead despite his mountainous exploits.

Hey, maybe Rasmussen's improved a half hour or more in a year.

Or maybe not.

And I didn't say he'd podium, I said I thought he was riding the best he has since his Vuelta podium.

Point...there's a ton of racing left and no one knows what can happen to the other riders.
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