Still not venturing out too far on any limbs, but the field of viable candidates is shrinking. Your 2007 winner is on THIS list:

2 Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 2.35
4 Cadel Evans (Aus) Predictor - Lotto 2.41
5 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 3.08
6 Christophe Moreau (Fra) AG2r Prévoyance 3.18
7 Carlos Sastre Candil (Spa) Team CSC 3.39
8 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 3.50
9 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 3.53

Rasmussen and Mayo won't survive the TTs. Kashechkin, Schleck, and Pereiro lost anywhere from 40 seconds to over a minute to Leipheimer in the Alps. That's a lot of time to make up on this group of decent TT riders.

Valverde has the inside track, but remember, he has yet to finish a TdF...