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  1. #1
    pan y agua merlinextraligh's Avatar
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    Rasmussen will win the TDF

    He's got 2:23 on Contador. There's one mountain stage left. It appears unlikely that anyone can put any time into Rasmussen in the mountains.

    So unless Contador can drop Rasmussen on the Aubisque (which appears unlikely), it's likely that Rasmussen goes into the final TT with a 2:23 lead on Rasmussen, (and larger gaps on everyone else.)

    In the first TT, Rasmussen only lost 37 seconds to Contador, so it appears unlikely Contador could overcome a 2 minute plus deficit.

    Barring a meltdown the Chicken is your 2007 TDF Winner.
    Last edited by merlinextraligh; 07-23-07 at 09:33 AM.

  2. #2
    Elitist Jackass Smoothie104's Avatar
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    Chicken showed a little weakness today, but it was only a little

  3. #3
    Ride Daddy Ride Jet Travis's Avatar
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    Too bad he was kicked off the national team for failing to comply with the drug testing rules. Another black eye for the TDF.
    "Light it up, Popo." --Levi Leipheimer

  4. #4
    Its Freakin HammerTime!!! C_Heath's Avatar
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    naaaaah,

    He aint dopin. Just was hangin type south of the border and forgot to turn in his homework.
    Quote Originally Posted by rousseau View Post
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  5. #5
    Prefers Cicero cooker's Avatar
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    What if Contador kicks Rasmussen's butt tomorrow? Is it possible? Rasmussen couldn't ditch him two days in a row.

  6. #6
    your nightmare gal chipcom's Avatar
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    I'm not conceding anything to the chicken yet. There is one more mountain stage, a couple of flat stages and the TT yet to come. Personally, I think Contador is being used to make Rasmussen work in the mountains so they can try to put some time into him on the flats via a break then nail him in the final TT.
    "Let us hope our weapons are never needed --but do not forget what the common people knew when they demanded the Bill of Rights: An armed citizenry is the first defense, the best defense, and the final defense against tyranny. If guns are outlawed, only the government will have guns. Only the police, the secret police, the military, the hired servants of our rulers. Only the government -- and a few outlaws. I intend to be among the outlaws" - Edward Abbey

  7. #7
    Senior Member CCFISH81's Avatar
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    I"m gonna jump on the Ras FTW bandwagon.

  8. #8
    pan y agua merlinextraligh's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cooker View Post
    What if Contador kicks Rasmussen's butt tomorrow? Is it possible? Rasmussen couldn't ditch him two days in a row.
    Won't matter much tomorrow, since tomorrow is a rest day.


    My bet though is that neither Contador, nor Rasmussen can drop the other.

  9. #9
    Ride Daddy Ride Jet Travis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by C_heath View Post
    naaaaah,

    He aint dopin. Just was hangin type south of the border and forgot to turn in his homework.
    I didn't say he was dopin'. I did say he failed to comply with rules and was kicked off the national team. More than a few people in the sport are a bit pissed by his behavior--and to those who don't follow the tour closely it will be viewed as just more evidence that cycling is a sport that isn't worth following.

    http://www.velonews.com/tour2007/new...s/12882.0.html
    "Light it up, Popo." --Levi Leipheimer

  10. #10
    Senior Member reef58's Avatar
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    He may win. If it rains again for the final ITT he likely will. I think it will be hard for Evans to pull back 4 minutes in the TT, but not impossible if the roads are clear. Contador could put 2 minutes into him in the final TT. This could be the year where the GC guys are fighting for time bonuses on stage 20.

    Richard

  11. #11
    Banned. El Diablo Rojo's Avatar
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    The other scenario is this. JB lets everyone know that Contador is now the new team leader. The entire team is now working for him. They dictate the pace on Tuesday and isolate Rasmussen. Levi goes on a flyer with Popo and Michael has to counter. Contador goes with him and they tag team Rasmussen until he cracks and Contador is free to fly. It's unlikely but possible.

  12. #12
    pan y agua merlinextraligh's Avatar
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    ^^^^
    See the Levi flyer thread I started.

  13. #13
    Señor Member USAZorro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by El Diablo Rojo View Post
    The other scenario is this. JB lets everyone know that Contador is now the new team leader. The entire team is now working for him. They dictate the pace on Tuesday and isolate Rasmussen. Levi goes on a flyer with Popo and Michael has to counter. Contador goes with him and they tag team Rasmussen until he cracks and Contador is free to fly. It's unlikely but possible.
    Won't happen on Tuesday.









    Maybe Wednesday though.

    I think the more likely scenario is that Discovery isolates Rasmussen at the beginning of the penultimate climb, and then Contador hammers at him once they hit the final climb - hoping to gain some time on him. A 90 second gap plus the 20 second bonus (which could turn to be only 8 if Chicken finishes 2nd) could be enough to let Contador overtake him on the final ITT.
    Last edited by USAZorro; 07-23-07 at 10:18 AM.
    The search for inner peace continues...

  14. #14
    Je pose, donc je suis. gcl8a's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cooker View Post
    What if Contador kicks Rasmussen's butt tomorrow? Is it possible? Rasmussen couldn't ditch him two days in a row.
    Well, Rasmussen doesn't have to ditch Contador. He has enough time on him for the time trial, most likely. 'All' he has to do is mark him. Word on the street is that 'Kyllingen' suffered a little to hold on to Contador, but it was hard to tell if Contador had more in him from the crappy feed I was watching. You can be sure that the attacks will come earlier on Wednesday, as Discovery tries to 'shake and bake' him.

    On a side note, what happened to Menchov today? He was up in the lead group for a while, but then all of a sudden he was with the yellow jersey. I expected Rasmussen to maybe make an attack and then use Menchov for cover. Did he come back for Rasmussen? Did he crack?

  15. #15
    Senior Member godspiral's Avatar
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    I disagree that rasmussen showed any weakness on stage 15... Sure contador attacked 6 times, but ras pulled it back each time, and tended to ride even with him to wait for next attack.

    Not that he could of, but ras didn't need to drop contador, so he did what he had to. Contador didn't prove he's a better climber today.

  16. #16
    Señor Member USAZorro's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gcl8a View Post
    Well, Rasmussen doesn't have to ditch Contador. He has enough time on him for the time trial, most likely. 'All' he has to do is mark him. Word on the street is that 'Kyllingen' suffered a little to hold on to Contador, but it was hard to tell if Contador had more in him from the crappy feed I was watching. You can be sure that the attacks will come earlier on Wednesday, as Discovery tries to 'shake and bake' him.

    On a side note, what happened to Menchov today? He was up in the lead group for a while, but then all of a sudden he was with the yellow jersey. I expected Rasmussen to maybe make an attack and then use Menchov for cover. Did he come back for Rasmussen? Did he crack?
    Once you crack (which Menchov did in the front group), it's hard to recover and be helpful to a teammate who's being put under pressure on a serious climb.
    The search for inner peace continues...

  17. #17
    Senior Member VanceMac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gcl8a View Post
    Word on the street is that 'Kyllingen' suffered a little to hold on to Contador, but it was hard to tell if Contador had more in him from the crappy feed I was watching.
    Well, that's the story Paul and Phil were trying to sell, as well. But I think that had more to do with adding to the coming drama. It looked to me like Ras was bird-dogging... milton berle-ing, if you will. The biggest mistake Ras could have made today was cranking out one of his mountain dominations, at the risk of leaving himself spent for the rest of the tour.

    I do agree, though, that Disco's team strength could be a major fly in Rasmussen's ointment down the homestretch.

  18. #18
    Professional Fuss-Budget Bacciagalupe's Avatar
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    I find it highly entertaining that everyone misjudged Ras's TT skills based on past performance, notably on a single disastrous TT stage in '05. Now after one excellent showing, all of the sudden Ras is a fantastic TT'er.

    I think it's possible Ras will lose a moderate amount of time on the TT, and agree with EDR that if Disco backs Contador all the way (which seems likely), someone else might have the MJ in a few days....

  19. #19
    Prefers Cicero cooker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by merlinextraligh View Post
    Won't matter much tomorrow, since tomorrow is a rest day.
    Touché.

    I meant the next stage.

  20. #20
    Senior Member Keith99's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bacciagalupe View Post
    I find it highly entertaining that everyone misjudged Ras's TT skills based on past performance, notably on a single disastrous TT stage in '05. Now after one excellent showing, all of the sudden Ras is a fantastic TT'er.

    I think it's possible Ras will lose a moderate amount of time on the TT, and agree with EDR that if Disco backs Contador all the way (which seems likely), someone else might have the MJ in a few days....
    The last time trial suited Ras. I would expect him to lose more time on the second one. The race is far from over. I would be shocked (barring chrashes and the like) for Ras to not podium. But even that is remotely possible. A good ride on Wednesday and he could be positioned to be the First since Eddy to have Yellow and Polka Dot at the end.

    But nothing is final yet.

  21. #21
    Senior Member reef58's Avatar
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    He showed a little. I really didn't think he would cover the last attack before the summit, but he dug deep. If you get a chance to see the replay the motorbikes ahead slowed Contador a little. Even if they were not there I think Chicken would have caught back up when the road leveled a little.

    I have to wonder how many attacks does Contador have in him? That was serious work.

    Richard

    Quote Originally Posted by godspiral View Post
    I disagree that rasmussen showed any weakness on stage 15... Sure contador attacked 6 times, but ras pulled it back each time, and tended to ride even with him to wait for next attack.

    Not that he could of, but ras didn't need to drop contador, so he did what he had to. Contador didn't prove he's a better climber today.

  22. #22
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    I am wondering why Contador decided to attack Chicken so late in the stage. What would have happened if he started a couple of the attacks earlier?

  23. #23
    Senior Member reef58's Avatar
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    Yea he only attacked 6 times or so. Lazy bum. Rasmussen had 2 teamates with him for one. The road looked a little steeper when he attacked for another.

    Richard

    Quote Originally Posted by Randomus View Post
    I am wondering why Contador decided to attack Chicken so late in the stage. What would have happened if he started a couple of the attacks earlier?

  24. #24
    Banned. El Diablo Rojo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by USAZorro View Post
    Won't happen on Tuesday.









    Maybe Wednesday though.

    I think the more likely scenario is that Discovery isolates Rasmussen at the beginning of the penultimate climb, and then Contador hammers at him once they hit the final climb - hoping to gain some time on him. A 90 second gap plus the 20 second bonus (which could turn to be only 8 if Chicken finishes 2nd) could be enough to let Contador overtake him on the final ITT.

    Errr that's about what I said....Yeah I know it's not tomorrow I keep thinking today is Sunday for some stupid reason.

  25. #25
    your nightmare gal chipcom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Randomus View Post
    I am wondering why Contador decided to attack Chicken so late in the stage. What would have happened if he started a couple of the attacks earlier?
    They would have put much more time into everyone else...including Levi.
    "Let us hope our weapons are never needed --but do not forget what the common people knew when they demanded the Bill of Rights: An armed citizenry is the first defense, the best defense, and the final defense against tyranny. If guns are outlawed, only the government will have guns. Only the police, the secret police, the military, the hired servants of our rulers. Only the government -- and a few outlaws. I intend to be among the outlaws" - Edward Abbey

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