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Old 07-23-07, 09:23 AM   #1
merlinextraligh
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Rasmussen will win the TDF

He's got 2:23 on Contador. There's one mountain stage left. It appears unlikely that anyone can put any time into Rasmussen in the mountains.

So unless Contador can drop Rasmussen on the Aubisque (which appears unlikely), it's likely that Rasmussen goes into the final TT with a 2:23 lead on Rasmussen, (and larger gaps on everyone else.)

In the first TT, Rasmussen only lost 37 seconds to Contador, so it appears unlikely Contador could overcome a 2 minute plus deficit.

Barring a meltdown the Chicken is your 2007 TDF Winner.

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Old 07-23-07, 09:31 AM   #2
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Chicken showed a little weakness today, but it was only a little
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Old 07-23-07, 09:46 AM   #3
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Too bad he was kicked off the national team for failing to comply with the drug testing rules. Another black eye for the TDF.
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Old 07-23-07, 09:48 AM   #4
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naaaaah,

He aint dopin. Just was hangin type south of the border and forgot to turn in his homework.
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Old 07-23-07, 09:52 AM   #5
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What if Contador kicks Rasmussen's butt tomorrow? Is it possible? Rasmussen couldn't ditch him two days in a row.
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Old 07-23-07, 09:55 AM   #6
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I'm not conceding anything to the chicken yet. There is one more mountain stage, a couple of flat stages and the TT yet to come. Personally, I think Contador is being used to make Rasmussen work in the mountains so they can try to put some time into him on the flats via a break then nail him in the final TT.
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Old 07-23-07, 09:55 AM   #7
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I"m gonna jump on the Ras FTW bandwagon.
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Old 07-23-07, 09:56 AM   #8
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What if Contador kicks Rasmussen's butt tomorrow? Is it possible? Rasmussen couldn't ditch him two days in a row.
Won't matter much tomorrow, since tomorrow is a rest day.


My bet though is that neither Contador, nor Rasmussen can drop the other.
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Old 07-23-07, 09:56 AM   #9
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naaaaah,

He aint dopin. Just was hangin type south of the border and forgot to turn in his homework.
I didn't say he was dopin'. I did say he failed to comply with rules and was kicked off the national team. More than a few people in the sport are a bit pissed by his behavior--and to those who don't follow the tour closely it will be viewed as just more evidence that cycling is a sport that isn't worth following.

http://www.velonews.com/tour2007/new...s/12882.0.html
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Old 07-23-07, 10:01 AM   #10
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He may win. If it rains again for the final ITT he likely will. I think it will be hard for Evans to pull back 4 minutes in the TT, but not impossible if the roads are clear. Contador could put 2 minutes into him in the final TT. This could be the year where the GC guys are fighting for time bonuses on stage 20.

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Old 07-23-07, 10:02 AM   #11
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The other scenario is this. JB lets everyone know that Contador is now the new team leader. The entire team is now working for him. They dictate the pace on Tuesday and isolate Rasmussen. Levi goes on a flyer with Popo and Michael has to counter. Contador goes with him and they tag team Rasmussen until he cracks and Contador is free to fly. It's unlikely but possible.
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Old 07-23-07, 10:04 AM   #12
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^^^^
See the Levi flyer thread I started.
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Old 07-23-07, 10:13 AM   #13
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The other scenario is this. JB lets everyone know that Contador is now the new team leader. The entire team is now working for him. They dictate the pace on Tuesday and isolate Rasmussen. Levi goes on a flyer with Popo and Michael has to counter. Contador goes with him and they tag team Rasmussen until he cracks and Contador is free to fly. It's unlikely but possible.
Won't happen on Tuesday.









Maybe Wednesday though.

I think the more likely scenario is that Discovery isolates Rasmussen at the beginning of the penultimate climb, and then Contador hammers at him once they hit the final climb - hoping to gain some time on him. A 90 second gap plus the 20 second bonus (which could turn to be only 8 if Chicken finishes 2nd) could be enough to let Contador overtake him on the final ITT.
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Old 07-23-07, 10:14 AM   #14
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What if Contador kicks Rasmussen's butt tomorrow? Is it possible? Rasmussen couldn't ditch him two days in a row.
Well, Rasmussen doesn't have to ditch Contador. He has enough time on him for the time trial, most likely. 'All' he has to do is mark him. Word on the street is that 'Kyllingen' suffered a little to hold on to Contador, but it was hard to tell if Contador had more in him from the crappy feed I was watching. You can be sure that the attacks will come earlier on Wednesday, as Discovery tries to 'shake and bake' him.

On a side note, what happened to Menchov today? He was up in the lead group for a while, but then all of a sudden he was with the yellow jersey. I expected Rasmussen to maybe make an attack and then use Menchov for cover. Did he come back for Rasmussen? Did he crack?
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Old 07-23-07, 10:18 AM   #15
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I disagree that rasmussen showed any weakness on stage 15... Sure contador attacked 6 times, but ras pulled it back each time, and tended to ride even with him to wait for next attack.

Not that he could of, but ras didn't need to drop contador, so he did what he had to. Contador didn't prove he's a better climber today.
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Old 07-23-07, 10:26 AM   #16
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Well, Rasmussen doesn't have to ditch Contador. He has enough time on him for the time trial, most likely. 'All' he has to do is mark him. Word on the street is that 'Kyllingen' suffered a little to hold on to Contador, but it was hard to tell if Contador had more in him from the crappy feed I was watching. You can be sure that the attacks will come earlier on Wednesday, as Discovery tries to 'shake and bake' him.

On a side note, what happened to Menchov today? He was up in the lead group for a while, but then all of a sudden he was with the yellow jersey. I expected Rasmussen to maybe make an attack and then use Menchov for cover. Did he come back for Rasmussen? Did he crack?
Once you crack (which Menchov did in the front group), it's hard to recover and be helpful to a teammate who's being put under pressure on a serious climb.
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Old 07-23-07, 10:35 AM   #17
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Word on the street is that 'Kyllingen' suffered a little to hold on to Contador, but it was hard to tell if Contador had more in him from the crappy feed I was watching.
Well, that's the story Paul and Phil were trying to sell, as well. But I think that had more to do with adding to the coming drama. It looked to me like Ras was bird-dogging... milton berle-ing, if you will. The biggest mistake Ras could have made today was cranking out one of his mountain dominations, at the risk of leaving himself spent for the rest of the tour.

I do agree, though, that Disco's team strength could be a major fly in Rasmussen's ointment down the homestretch.
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Old 07-23-07, 10:54 AM   #18
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I find it highly entertaining that everyone misjudged Ras's TT skills based on past performance, notably on a single disastrous TT stage in '05. Now after one excellent showing, all of the sudden Ras is a fantastic TT'er.

I think it's possible Ras will lose a moderate amount of time on the TT, and agree with EDR that if Disco backs Contador all the way (which seems likely), someone else might have the MJ in a few days....
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Old 07-23-07, 11:00 AM   #19
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Won't matter much tomorrow, since tomorrow is a rest day.
Touché.

I meant the next stage.
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Old 07-23-07, 11:01 AM   #20
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I find it highly entertaining that everyone misjudged Ras's TT skills based on past performance, notably on a single disastrous TT stage in '05. Now after one excellent showing, all of the sudden Ras is a fantastic TT'er.

I think it's possible Ras will lose a moderate amount of time on the TT, and agree with EDR that if Disco backs Contador all the way (which seems likely), someone else might have the MJ in a few days....
The last time trial suited Ras. I would expect him to lose more time on the second one. The race is far from over. I would be shocked (barring chrashes and the like) for Ras to not podium. But even that is remotely possible. A good ride on Wednesday and he could be positioned to be the First since Eddy to have Yellow and Polka Dot at the end.

But nothing is final yet.
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Old 07-23-07, 11:03 AM   #21
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He showed a little. I really didn't think he would cover the last attack before the summit, but he dug deep. If you get a chance to see the replay the motorbikes ahead slowed Contador a little. Even if they were not there I think Chicken would have caught back up when the road leveled a little.

I have to wonder how many attacks does Contador have in him? That was serious work.

Richard

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I disagree that rasmussen showed any weakness on stage 15... Sure contador attacked 6 times, but ras pulled it back each time, and tended to ride even with him to wait for next attack.

Not that he could of, but ras didn't need to drop contador, so he did what he had to. Contador didn't prove he's a better climber today.
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Old 07-23-07, 11:10 AM   #22
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I am wondering why Contador decided to attack Chicken so late in the stage. What would have happened if he started a couple of the attacks earlier?
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Old 07-23-07, 11:14 AM   #23
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Yea he only attacked 6 times or so. Lazy bum. Rasmussen had 2 teamates with him for one. The road looked a little steeper when he attacked for another.

Richard

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I am wondering why Contador decided to attack Chicken so late in the stage. What would have happened if he started a couple of the attacks earlier?
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Old 07-23-07, 11:18 AM   #24
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Won't happen on Tuesday.









Maybe Wednesday though.

I think the more likely scenario is that Discovery isolates Rasmussen at the beginning of the penultimate climb, and then Contador hammers at him once they hit the final climb - hoping to gain some time on him. A 90 second gap plus the 20 second bonus (which could turn to be only 8 if Chicken finishes 2nd) could be enough to let Contador overtake him on the final ITT.

Errr that's about what I said....Yeah I know it's not tomorrow I keep thinking today is Sunday for some stupid reason.
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Old 07-23-07, 11:30 AM   #25
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I am wondering why Contador decided to attack Chicken so late in the stage. What would have happened if he started a couple of the attacks earlier?
They would have put much more time into everyone else...including Levi.
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