It plays out like this: Rasmussen marks Contador all day. Soler attacks the climbs early to get the KOM points. OR Rasmussen attacks on the penultimate climb to gain time before the last TT thus denying Soler (who's heart is the size of the wilderness) the KOM.
Soler also has gift points available on stages 17/18, which might be out of reach for anyone else to pass him. He should win polka even if Ras gets stage 16 win bonus. Even if Ras gets dreams of joining Merx winning both, his team manager will tell him not to fight Soler. Popo might be able to challenge but has other responsibilities.
I think so. I would imagine that Soler will attack early Wednesday and get the points for the first HC climb, and the other early climbs until the big guns catch him and anyone else on the final climb to the finish. Also, he has the freedom to go after the small KOM points on the flat days and doesn't have to worry about doing well in the TT.