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Old 07-08-08, 11:08 AM   #1
pumpy schwartz
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favorites in the mountains?

post em

vandevelde stand a chance?
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Old 07-08-08, 11:37 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by pumpy schwartz View Post

vandevelde stand a chance?
Well yes. See L'Alpe de Huez, 2005. The issue with Valverde has always been can he hold it together for an entire TDF.

Others in no particular order:

Evans, Menchov, Schleck, Cunego,, Ricco, Sastre, Kirchen, Zubeldia

And would have included Soler
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Old 07-08-08, 12:37 PM   #3
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+1 in all of them, the problem now with soler is that he is quite back in the general positions. 12 minutes is a lot of time, anybody knows how damaged/injured he is??? Depending on that he should be able to take some time back in the mountains.

In my opinion if nothing funky happens Evans should be fighting 1st place in the mountains. In general all the guys mentioned are "all rounders" but Soler, that is basically the only 100% Mountain person.
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Old 07-08-08, 12:41 PM   #4
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Unless the next great appears ala Lance in 99, I think we are going to see a rider have a good day and take the GC one day, only to see them lose it the next day when someone else has the legs. Similar to the 06 tour, IMHO.
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Old 07-08-08, 12:43 PM   #5
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Piepoli and Ricco will team up in the mountains to get a stage win
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Old 07-08-08, 12:44 PM   #6
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I read Soler has a broken wrist and has withdrawn. My money is on Evans over the course of 5 or 6 climbing days. Any of the guys listed might beat him in 1 or 2 days of climbing but over the course of several days I go with Evans.
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Old 07-08-08, 12:47 PM   #7
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nothing happen with italians in the TDF since years ago. Sorry.
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Old 07-10-08, 12:30 AM   #8
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Ricco seems most likely to produce a dramatic stage win, especially if he keeps losing time at the current rate.
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Old 07-10-08, 03:48 AM   #9
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post em

vandevelde stand a chance?
No.
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Old 07-10-08, 03:51 AM   #10
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nothing happen with italians in the TDF since years ago. Sorry.
Ivan Basso. Sorry.
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Old 07-10-08, 04:13 AM   #11
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A "favorite in the mountains" to me is the same as "a favorite to win", unless one is wondering if a good climber, like a Virenque, can win a stage.

Ricco can win a stage. After a big effort to try to win the Giro only a month ago, it would be nearly impossible for him to hold form enough to contend for the win. Had the organizers not let Astana in at the last minute, Ricco would have won. Which shows you how good Contador is, although he does not seem to get his due from our BF "experts".

Cunego, Evans, Valverde, Sastre, and Menchov.

Sastre has demonstrated that when things get really painful, he's not really in the game. He does not have the extra gear. That extra gear is between the ears.

Cunego and Menchov have won Grand Tours before. So, they understand how it's done.

Valverde just had a big effort winning the Dauphine. Nobody in the recent past other than Lance has won the Dauphine and then the Tour (I recall people getting all excited about Moreau winning in 01 and 07 like he would be a Tour contendor. Not.) And while Valverde is an extremely good rider, he's not in Lance's class.

I think it's between Cunego, Evans, and Menchov. You can throw a blanket over all of them.
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Old 07-10-08, 05:09 AM   #12
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dont forget about Kanstantin Sivtsov he could be strong in the mt.stages
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Old 07-10-08, 06:23 AM   #13
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How about Kirchen or Sivtsov (he sure did fly up brasstown bald...left Levi in his dust)
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Old 07-10-08, 07:46 AM   #14
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Has Valverde come to form too early this year, and can he survive a 3-week race. Those are the questions. In terms of climbers, you cannot discount Piepoli, Ricco, Sastra and the Schleck brothers.

... Brad
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Old 07-10-08, 08:21 AM   #15
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Has Valverde come to form too early this year, and can he survive a 3-week race. Those are the questions.
I posted in the Stage 1 thread that Valverde's effort in taking stage 1, was not consistent with a guy that was confident in pursuing a GC win. I was ridiculed.

It certainly looks now like Valverde himself knew he better grab what he could get when he could get it, because his GC hopes are questionable.
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Old 07-10-08, 10:11 AM   #16
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I posted in the Stage 1 thread that Valverde's effort in taking stage 1, was not consistent with a guy that was confident in pursuing a GC win. I was ridiculed.

It certainly looks now like Valverde himself knew he better grab what he could get when he could get it, because his GC hopes are questionable.
I think you are reading to much into Valverdes effort in stage one, it wasn't your typical opening stage and it suited him perfectly. Other than losing time in the tt (which we new he would) he has done fine. Looked alright today and we will find out for sure in the mountains. The great thing about this years tour is that any one of the favorites could blow up in the mountains and none of us would be suprised. Anyone who thought this years tour would be boring was completly wrong, the stages have been exciting from day one and we haven't had to sit through a week of flat stages before the real racing begins.
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Old 07-10-08, 10:15 AM   #17
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I think Cunego looks like he isn't in good form either.
Ricco seems to know when to strike. I can't wait to see him in the mountains.
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Old 07-10-08, 10:16 AM   #18
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Well yes. See L'Alpe de Huez, 2005.
They didn't include Alpe d'Huez in the 2005 Tour. I think you mean Courchevel.

Anyways, I feel the best man for the mountains is Magnus Backstedt.
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Old 07-10-08, 10:16 AM   #19
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vandevelde!
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Old 07-10-08, 10:25 AM   #20
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Anyways, I feel the best man for the mountains is Magnus Backstedt.
As in "quickest off the top and back to the hotel."
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Old 07-10-08, 10:32 AM   #21
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I think you are reading to much into Valverdes effort in stage one, it wasn't your typical opening stage and it suited him perfectly. Other than losing time in the tt (which we new he would) he has done fine. Looked alright today and we will find out for sure in the mountains. The great thing about this years tour is that any one of the favorites could blow up in the mountains and none of us would be suprised. Anyone who thought this years tour would be boring was completly wrong, the stages have been exciting from day one and we haven't had to sit through a week of flat stages before the real racing begins.
I'm not saying the effort Day 1 cost him that much. I am saying that Valverdes doubts his own GC chances and was hedging his bets. And fwiw Phil Ligget agreed with me yesterday.

Long tour and Valverdes still has a shot. But I stand by my point that even he is not totally convinced and is hedging his bets.
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Old 07-10-08, 10:33 AM   #22
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As in "quickest off the top and back to the hotel."
He doesn't try to exert himself too much, you know, and I feel that's the best approach to take when riding up large mountains.
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Old 07-10-08, 10:36 AM   #23
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They didn't include Alpe d'Huez in the 2005 Tour. I think you mean Courchevel.

.

Correct
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Old 07-10-08, 01:53 PM   #24
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I think Sanchez will put on a good show when the roads hit the Pyrenees.
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Old 07-12-08, 07:59 PM   #25
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I think Andy Schleck is going to grab stage 15 if Sastre is out of contention by that point.
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