Cycling and bicycle discussion forums. 
   Click here to join our community Log in to access your Control Panel  


Go Back   > >

Professional Cycling For the Fans Follow the Tour de France,the Giro de Italia, the Spring Classics, or other professional cycling races? Here's your home...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old 07-20-08, 09:52 PM   #1
SunSwingsLow
Senior Member
Thread Starter
 
SunSwingsLow's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Chicago
Bikes:
Posts: 1,957
So with 5 racing stages left...

Whos the favorite.

If Cadel keeps the current time gaps id say he is still the favorite.

Whos your favorite to win?
SunSwingsLow is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-08, 10:02 PM   #2
key
Senior Member
 
key's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Newcastle, Australia
Bikes:
Posts: 243
cadel. he should be able to make up the time in the time trial but i dunno how hes gonna fare going up alp du huez
key is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-20-08, 10:40 PM   #3
yellowjeep
Senior Member
 
yellowjeep's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Lawrence
Bikes:
Posts: 3,270
CSC will do everything they can in the Alps to make sure Cadel has no legs left.

I think Frank or Carlos look pretty strong.
yellowjeep is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 12:17 AM   #4
CycleFreakLS
Senior Member
 
CycleFreakLS's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Southern CA
Bikes: Litespeed, Medici, Gary Fisher
Posts: 663
Based upon past TT results, Schleck and Kohl will need at least 4 min before they hit the TT to have any chance against Evans, Menchov, or Vande Velde. And since Valverde and Cunego really have no shot at the podium, I wouldn't be surprised if they go all out on the 'Alpe (which could put a dent in CSC's plans).
CycleFreakLS is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 12:26 AM   #5
USAZorro
Seņor Member
 
USAZorro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Florence, KY
Bikes: 1954 Hetchins M.O., 1959 Viking Severn Valley, 1970 Raleigh Pro, 1972 Fuji "The Finest", 1974 Raleigh Superbe&Comp, 1976 Raleigh Team Pro, 1996 Giant Iguana, 2000 Bob Jackson Arrowhead
Posts: 14,345
Quote:
Originally Posted by CycleFreakLS View Post
Based upon past TT results, Schleck and Kohl will need at least 4 min before they hit the TT to have any chance against Evans, Menchov, or Vande Velde. And since Valverde and Cunego really have no shot at the podium, I wouldn't be surprised if they go all out on the 'Alpe (which could put a dent in CSC's plans).
Cunego has shown that when he goes "all out", he doesn't endanger any of the true GC contenders.

I do expect very lively stages on Tuesday and Wednesday. After today, I think several of the stronger climbers are smelling blood, and will be going after Evans mercilessly.
__________________
In search of what to search for.
USAZorro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 01:08 AM   #6
2wheeled
Cheers!
 
2wheeled's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Woodinville
Bikes: Scott Addict R15, Cadd 9
Posts: 1,284
I still think Evans or possibly Menchov will get it. Sastre, Schleck & Kohl still need much more time as already stated. I don't think that they can get that amount of time. VDV is still hanging tough, we'll how he fairs on L'alp duez.

Isn't this a fabulous tour?
__________________
2wheeled is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 01:24 AM   #7
dahoss2002
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Bossier City, La
Bikes: 70's Motobecane, 89 Centurion Ironman
Posts: 618
If Menchov stays off the ground, the TT will be a match race between him and Evans to decide the GC.
dahoss2002 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 06:47 AM   #8
Suzie Green
Cycler
 
Suzie Green's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Bikes:
Posts: 1,499
Quote:
Originally Posted by USAZorro View Post
Cunego has shown that when he goes "all out", he doesn't endanger any of the true GC contenders.

+1 "Disappointing" hardly even begins to describe his performance so far.
Suzie Green is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 07:45 AM   #9
bac
Senior Member
 
bac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Pennsylvania
Bikes: Too many to list!
Posts: 7,481
Barring some real heroics in the mountains (which is certainly not out of the question), my money is on Evans or Menchov due to their TT strenghs. I love V/V as a darkhorse, and there are certainly plenty of pure climbers left to throw a wrench in the works.

.............. can't wait!

... Brad
bac is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 08:17 AM   #10
veloGeezer
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Central PA
Bikes:
Posts: 390
over the years the Tour has shown that it has no favorites

there are now six men under one minute from the lead. This is one of the best races I've seen in years.
veloGeezer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 08:26 AM   #11
tekhna
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Bikes:
Posts: 2,407
Menchov hasn't really come out to play yet, I wonder if he will be able to put some time into people in the Alps, or if he'll just hang tough and try to grind out a TT.
tekhna is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 09:03 AM   #12
Derby
Gone riding...
 
Derby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Wesley Chapel, NC
Bikes:
Posts: 64
my money is on Menchov as well...can't wait to see how this pans out!
Derby is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 10:32 AM   #13
Allen H
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Piedmont, CA
Bikes: '04 LeMond Buenos Aires
Posts: 584
Quote:
Originally Posted by tekhna View Post
Menchov hasn't really come out to play yet, I wonder if he will be able to put some time into people in the Alps, or if he'll just hang tough and try to grind out a TT.
I think Menchov would have put some time into several of the GC contenders yesterday if he hadn't fallen just as he attacked in one of the uphill turns (bad break for him).

Anyway, I have Menchov, Evans and Vandevelde on my fantasy team, so that last TT should be VERY interesting (unless these next two Alps stages put way more time between the climbers and the TTers than yesterday did).
Allen H is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 10:43 AM   #14
veloGeezer
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Central PA
Bikes:
Posts: 390
given what Cervelo has said about owning the bridge 500 meters from the finish at Alpe d'Huez, and the way the stages play out for this final week, it should be a safe bet to say that CSC is going to do everything they can to win the race Wednesday.
veloGeezer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 10:49 AM   #15
kc0bbq
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Bikes: 2006 Raleigh Cadent 2.0, 2013 Trek Madone 3.1, 2015 Propel Advanced SL 2, 2000 K2 Zed SE
Posts: 864
Quote:
Originally Posted by bac View Post
Barring some real heroics in the mountains (which is certainly not out of the question), my money is on Evans or Menchov due to their TT strenghs. I love V/V as a darkhorse, and there are certainly plenty of pure climbers left to throw a wrench in the works.

.............. can't wait!

... Brad
Vandevelde with a podium finish would be a pretty fun result. He'd certainly managed to stay in the thick of things. I'm starting to believe. Go go third place!
kc0bbq is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 11:19 AM   #16
justinb
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Bikes:
Posts: 626
Quote:
Originally Posted by kc0bbq View Post
Vandevelde with a podium finish would be a pretty fun result. He'd certainly managed to stay in the thick of things. I'm starting to believe. Go go third place!
If he's within 90 seconds of Sastre/Schleck/Kohl after the Alpe, you'd have to think he's going to podium. He's a stud TTist.
justinb is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 11:33 AM   #17
smoke
Royal Grand Exalted Pooba
 
smoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Eight Miles High
Bikes: Time VXR ProTeam, Look 695, Pinarello Paris Carbon, Ridley Dean, Time ZXRS
Posts: 1,361
Quote:
Originally Posted by Allen H View Post
I think Menchov would have put some time into several of the GC contenders yesterday if he hadn't fallen just as he attacked in one of the uphill turns (bad break for him).
he did anyway. he fell, they passed him, he caught back up and still went off the front of the evans group. he put 18 seconds into schleck and 27 into evans.

i think evans is probably the most likely to win the tour, but it's not gonna be easy. he's gonna get absolutely mauled by these guys before he's allowed to win it. and if he cracks in the mountains, or is even just the slightest bit weak, i think menchov will win it. he's looking like a serious threat right now
__________________
'In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, "Make us your slaves, but feed us." '

-Fyodor Dostoevsky's Grand Inquisitor

Last edited by smoke; 07-22-08 at 05:35 AM.
smoke is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 12:08 PM   #18
Keith99
Senior Member
 
Keith99's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Bikes:
Posts: 5,866
The more I look at it the more I think Stage 16 is huge. Not a mountiantop finish, but 2 HC climbs back to back with little flat inbetween. It really is a stage that could be anything from no gaps at all to huge gaps. If someone has the guts to push on the first climb and take it all the way to the end. If CSC can drop the TT guys on the first clinb and have just a couple of workers left they might just break things wide open. If they fail but make the TT guys work hard enough without also killing their GC guys they can win that way also.
Keith99 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 09:04 PM   #19
Capgemini
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Bikes:
Posts: 117
How cool would it be to ride just one stage w/ those guys
Capgemini is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-08, 10:58 PM   #20
yellowjeep
Senior Member
 
yellowjeep's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Lawrence
Bikes:
Posts: 3,270
Not very cool for me. Can you say broomwagon.

I would like to be a team mechanic though and ride in the car. I wonder how I can get that job.
yellowjeep is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-22-08, 12:06 AM   #21
USAZorro
Seņor Member
 
USAZorro's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Florence, KY
Bikes: 1954 Hetchins M.O., 1959 Viking Severn Valley, 1970 Raleigh Pro, 1972 Fuji "The Finest", 1974 Raleigh Superbe&Comp, 1976 Raleigh Team Pro, 1996 Giant Iguana, 2000 Bob Jackson Arrowhead
Posts: 14,345
Quote:
Originally Posted by Keith99 View Post
The more I look at it the more I think Stage 16 is huge. Not a mountiantop finish, but 2 HC climbs back to back with little flat inbetween. It really is a stage that could be anything from no gaps at all to huge gaps. If someone has the guts to push on the first climb and take it all the way to the end. If CSC can drop the TT guys on the first clinb and have just a couple of workers left they might just break things wide open. If they fail but make the TT guys work hard enough without also killing their GC guys they can win that way also.
If they didn't have stage 17 staring them in the face, I could see them trying that. I expect a little more conservative approach on stage 16. Not that they wouldn't try something, but I think CSC will push with one of the riders on 16, and the other on 17 - not both on the same stage.

Most sensible would be to have Sastre and possibly Andy attack, and have Frank sit on Cadel's wheel.
__________________
In search of what to search for.
USAZorro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-22-08, 05:14 PM   #22
bricktopmarv
Rollin
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Melb
Bikes:
Posts: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by smoke View Post
he did anyway. he fell, they passed him, he caught back up and still went off the front of the evans group. he put 18 seconds into schleck and 27 into evans.

i think evans is probably the most likely to win the tour, but it's not gonna be easy. he's gonna get absolutely mauled by these guys before he's allowed to win it. and if he cracks in the mountains, or is even just the slightest bit weak, i think menchov will win it. he's looking like a serious threat right now
menchov has just lost 35 seconds on a descent

fingers crossed for cadel, doing it tough without the strongest team.

(not that i'm a biased australian or anything )
bricktopmarv is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-22-08, 05:55 PM   #23
collegeskier
Senior Member
 
collegeskier's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Evanston, IL
Bikes: Felt F5, Fuji Robaix Pro and a KHS Mountain Bike
Posts: 817
Quote:
Originally Posted by bricktopmarv View Post
menchov has just lost 35 seconds on a descent

fingers crossed for cadel, doing it tough without the strongest team.

(not that i'm a biased australian or anything )
Better then falling and losing 2 minutes, as Vande Valde did today.
collegeskier is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-22-08, 07:14 PM   #24
bricktopmarv
Rollin
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Melb
Bikes:
Posts: 10
true, i was just surprised he was as cautious as he was.

i guess they risk 'doing a john-lee augustyn' on every descent if not careful.
bricktopmarv is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-22-08, 08:01 PM   #25
smoke
Royal Grand Exalted Pooba
 
smoke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Eight Miles High
Bikes: Time VXR ProTeam, Look 695, Pinarello Paris Carbon, Ridley Dean, Time ZXRS
Posts: 1,361
Quote:
Originally Posted by bricktopmarv View Post
true, i was just surprised he was as cautious as he was.

i guess they risk 'doing a john-lee augustyn' on every descent if not careful.
i've driven on hills like that in switzerland. it's scary as hell being on top of that and looking down, and that's in a car. these guys are going stupid fast down it in a race; i'm surprised that more guys didn't reach the point where they had to back off. scary stuff coming down an alp, fast as hell, blustery winds blowing every direction around the peaks and passes, switchbacks, no guardrails.....menchov still has a big pair, even if he couldn't take it any more

and i don't think that 35 seconds by itself would have been a mortal wound, but the 35 or so he lost in that flat stage in the first week was so stupid he's gonna pay for it now. i can see losing 35 seconds on a high technical descent; losing it that first week was a major mistake. it may cost him the tour
__________________
'In the end they will lay their freedom at our feet and say to us, "Make us your slaves, but feed us." '

-Fyodor Dostoevsky's Grand Inquisitor
smoke is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -6. The time now is 02:46 AM.