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Old 07-25-08, 08:21 AM   #1
tljan
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CSC and aggression

This is probably a naive question, but my knowledge of team tactics is limited, so please bare with me...

Following Sastre taking the YJ in Stage 17, CSC has the top two positions in the GC. There seems to be pretty wide spread agreement that Cadel Evans is the best time trialer of the serious contenders and the gap between him and the CSC riders is msall, so why wouldn't CSC try to blow out the race in either Stage 18 or 19 to put some distance between their two riders and Evans? Is this because blowing out the race wouldn't be possible or what?

Appreciate any comment!
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Old 07-25-08, 08:34 AM   #2
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I guess they think Sastre just might outperform and do a great timetrial.
They probably want to be as rested as possible and trying to break away today
would be very difficult. They risk using lots of energy that Sastre will need tomorrow.
Evans doesn't look that strong IMO, so I think we'll see the closest finish since Lemond/Fignon
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Old 07-25-08, 08:47 AM   #3
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The profile, particularly today, just doesn't favor it. With the last 30k being essentially downhill or flat, and only two lower category climbs.
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Old 07-25-08, 09:15 AM   #4
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it would be a waste of energy. Nobody's going to let the race leaders go.

It's much better to try and rest up for Saturday
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Old 07-25-08, 09:22 AM   #5
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Easier said than done, everyone's going to chase them there are more positions at stake than just the GC. You still have Menchov and VdV looking for a podium, you have the white jersey in contention. They just wouldn't get away.
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Old 07-25-08, 10:10 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by stonecrd View Post
Easier said than done, everyone's going to chase them there are more positions at stake than just the GC. You still have Menchov and VdV looking for a podium, you have the white jersey in contention. They just wouldn't get away.
Agreed, but lets take education a bit farther.

Evans is the better time trialist. The CSC guys are climbers. That means Evans has the advantage on the flats. That means that if the stage sees attacks the odds are better that Evans will get time over the climbers than the other way arround. But even if attacks happen the odds are 99% plus that there would be no time change of over 10 seconds (and that most likely opened in the last few kms).

If it did open up and attacks involving the leaders did happen the odds are 90% plus that it wouild take more out of the legs of the climbers than of Evans. That means win ot Evans. Oh and the impact of that is more pronounced on the stage just before the TT.

That means stage 19 is a good chance for the nameless pack riders to get a stage win.

At this point Sastre has a chance for Yellow. A great ride for him or trouble for Evans in the TT and he is in. CSC has a great chance for 2 on the podium and has the team championship all but locked up. They could throw all that away by taking a long shot for time in 18 and 19.
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