Originally Posted by stonecrd
Easier said than done, everyone's going to chase them there are more positions at stake than just the GC. You still have Menchov and VdV looking for a podium, you have the white jersey in contention. They just wouldn't get away.
Agreed, but lets take education a bit farther.
Evans is the better time trialist. The CSC guys are climbers. That means Evans has the advantage on the flats. That means that if the stage sees attacks the odds are better that Evans will get time over the climbers than the other way arround. But even if attacks happen the odds are 99% plus that there would be no time change of over 10 seconds (and that most likely opened in the last few kms).
If it did open up and attacks involving the leaders did happen the odds are 90% plus that it wouild take more out of the legs of the climbers than of Evans. That means win ot Evans. Oh and the impact of that is more pronounced on the stage just before the TT.
That means stage 19 is a good chance for the nameless pack riders to get a stage win.
At this point Sastre has a chance for Yellow. A great ride for him or trouble for Evans in the TT and he is in. CSC has a great chance for 2 on the podium and has the team championship all but locked up. They could throw all that away by taking a long shot for time in 18 and 19.