I predicted Menchov at the outset, but now I am not sure. When you watch these guys on TV, Astana and Liquigas are the strongest teams and Levi and Basso look stoic and solid. If Sastre, Menchov or Di Luca have a chance they need to something epic soon because Basso and Levi are going rule the TT.
My new prediction after six stages:
I think Di Luca and LPR are cooked and maybe Lovquist is the wild card. He is a good TT man, but being so young you just don't know. Sastre could pull something epic on one of the climbs, but that brutal TT doesn't favor him IMO.