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Thread: Can Lance Win 6

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    Sport Class Racer GT_ATB32's Avatar
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    Can Lance Win 6

    What are your thoughts on Lance Armstrong's attempt for 6 Tour wins in a row? Do you think he will be victorious? Who could defeat him? Are Iban Mayo, Tyler Hamilton, and Jan Ullrich threats to Lance?
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    Retired Member ultra-g's Avatar
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    I think, barring someone deliberately trying to sabotage his game (ala get punched by a fan like Eddie Merckx did), he's going to win this year.

    He's already said he's feeling better than he did in '03... what's stopping him besides his own thirst for winning it?
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    Lance Hater Laggard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ultra-g
    He's already said he's feeling better than he did in '03... what's stopping him besides his own thirst for winning it?
    Injuries, accidents, illness, a really bad day in the mountains. Lots of things can go wrong.
    i may have overreacted

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    Yea unless something unexpected happens (Merckx like incident, sickness, crashes), I think he will win. He looked very strong today.

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    I think he can, but I hope the Euros make it hard for him.
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    Anyone knows the prize money for winning GC? The specific amount, not the total amount for the whole tour.

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    Elitist Jackass Smoothie104's Avatar
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    I think It's roughly 400K for the Overal GC win



    note: (my winnings this year total $175.00)

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    Geezer Member Grampy™'s Avatar
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    I thought it was something like $400,000. The money is divided amongst the team.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Grampy™
    I thought it was something like $400,000. The money is divided amongst the team.

    Yeah, with Armstrong not included - he makes enough on endorsements. He also gives them bonus money on top of this first place prizemoney.
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    I think Ullrich will take it this year. Mayo has a good chance too.

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    I think Lance can do it, but it'll be tough. A lot of the top guys have trained harder than I've ever seen them, and they're not coming into the Tour as tired and ragtag-raggedy as the past tours. I mean, they aren't riding in every single major race as before, and a lot of them have specifically tailored their training so they can peak for the Tour. I've been really impressed with the form of a lot of the top contenders this year, and any one of them winning would be completely acceptable for me.

    I saw Jan a couple of weeks ago racing in Lugano in stage 9 of Tour de Suisse. When I saw him, I was shocked. I mean, so many people talk about how out of shape he is and how heavy a rider he is, but when I saw him... damn! His muscles were rippling, and there was not an ounce of fat over one inch of his body. You could even see the 6 pack through his T-Mobile jersey, and at one point, he just bent over to touch his toes, and you could see the muscle definition of every muscle running down his legs from where the shorts ended to where his socks started. At that point, I appreciated Jan's athleticism more than I ever had, and I said to myself that if he doesn't win this year, it won't be because he's out of shape- it'll be because he just wasn't good enough. His physique is incredible, and his presence is overpowering.

    That day made a fan out of me. I wouldn't mind seeing Ullrich win this year.

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    Impressive rippling muscle is one thing but it's also a draw back in this sports. Lance use to have much bigger muscle specially in upper body because in his younger days he was a triathlete, he built up a swimmers biceps. Many experts suggested, by Eddie Mercxx in particular, to loose those muscles for climbing the mountain stages. Lance didn't have to try to loose it. Cancer treatment did it for him. In his own own words, "Cancer is the best thing happened to me." You can say the same thing to leg muscles. You don't see many riders with track racer type legs go up the montains in the leaders pack.

    So far, Lance seems to be in very good health at least not sick as last year, and he has been positioning himself at where he hoped. And his team, outstanding support and their performance by far. I wouldn't be surprised if he kept his jersey the rest of the tour. But anything unexpected could happen. If for any reason, Lance couldn't get 6th title, it'll be sooo heart breaking(to me).

  13. #13
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    Very true, but Jan's problem always seemed to be losing the extra pounds, not just having the muscle. For the amount of muscle he has, he has incredible power, and sticking in those big gears and churning those pedals he just hauls major butt up those hills. Sure, it's always good to be small, but if you're gonna be a big guy, shave off the fat and work on building power to produce the wins. I don't think Jan is weak by any means in the mountains because he's such a big guy as much as that he had too much fat on top of the muscle he already has to haul all that extra flesh over the Alps.

    He's all good in my book.

    Koffee

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    Geezer Member Grampy™'s Avatar
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    The real question is...... Can anyone stop him?

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    can he win? sure, he can win as well as tyler, jan, iban etc. will he win? i sure hope so i am pulling for him but the field is more difficult then ever before or so they say. it will make for an exciting race at the very least. i would like to see lance win six but there is no way that the rest of the field is gonna let him walk away with it he is really gonna have to earn it. good luck to all the riders and teams out there. o and GO LANCE GO!! lol

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    Senior Member astonv0l's Avatar
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    I too am an Ulrich fan. I think he is an excellent rider and maybe T-Mobile and their manager maybe just what Jan needs to win this one. I always wondered if he hadn't gone down in the last TT in 03 what would have been the outcome ? I think he is good enough and has the skill to do it this year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grampy™
    The real question is...... Can anyone stop him?
    We'll have to see in the mountains. Right now, it looks like a shoe-in AGAIN for 'Discovery/Postal'. I hope this Tour gets a little more interesting.
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    I don't think weight, muscle tone or fitness is the reason
    Jan has been 2nd five times. Its not heart either, he's got
    plenty of that. Its brains, tactics and Pevenage/Groodfort vs
    Bruyneel. Evidence the attack by Jan on the Tourmalet last
    year, what was he thinking? or his final TT decision to not
    review the course, stupid.
    Jan has the engine and the heart to do it, If he ever
    gets his head (and coaching) in the right place no one is
    gonna touch him.

    Yah, Lance can do six, probably this year

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    TX Ciclista CarlJStoneham's Avatar
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    400k *euros*, not $. Given the current exchange rate, it'll be about $450k or more

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    Mad Town Biker Murrays's Avatar
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    At this point, Mayo is too far back to win.

    Jan only once got any real time out of Lance in the mountains while Lance has taken big chunks of time from Jan on numerous occasions. The time trial is kind of a toss-up, but I don’t see Jan making up a minute unless Lance screws up again.

    Tyler could be a wildcard because we can’t be sure how he’ll climb vs. Lance. Again, history shows Lance to be better in mountains & the TT.

    Haras will loose big time in the ITT so I don’t see him winning since he’s already down a minute.

    Personally, I think Lance will go away with Haras or Mayo in the mountains ala Pantani on Mt Ventoux. He won’t give anything away this time, though.

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    I think that the weather factor is always huge.
    Armstrong didn't arrive overweight for the cold like Indurain.
    I bet Armstrong's morale is quite high right now. Mayo is out (of the relevant picture). There is still more rain and cold to come. And he hasn't caught any sort of infections this first week.
    It has hardly started, but I think that Armstrong is very happy over how things are looking.

  22. #22
    Bring the tech Ajay213's Avatar
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    If we go by history Lance is in the perfect position. The only 2 times Ullrich has taken time out of Lance was when Lance made mistakes (bonking on a mountain stage and dehydration during a time trial). Past that Lance has put time (or not lost time) into Ullrich on every other ITT and mountain stage in the tours they've been in together. Obviously that doesn't mean Lance can't make a mistake, or crash, etc. But if none of those things happen, the odds are not good for Ullrich.

    Hamilton, basically the same as above. I don't think Tyler is at the same level as Jan and Lance. I don't think he'll lose much time in either the mountains or time trials, but I don't think he'll be making any either as nobody is going to let him go on a flyer like he did last year.

    Heras? He'll need at least a 5-6 minute lead going into the final time trial in order to come out in Yellow for the ride to Paris. He's already what, 1-2 minutes behind? Same thing here, I doubt he can put that much time into Lance in the mountains.

    Mayo? See Heras, except Mayo is already 5 minutes behind. I can't see him put 10 minutes into the leaders.

    I do expect Mayo and Heras to be "Allowed" to go up the road, at least by USPS. This will force Tyler and Jan to chase them down first or else face being bumped down the standings, after that Lance just needs to ride their wheels. Lance also has a GC capable team member between him and Jan/Tyler, that can be used for a HUGE amount of leverage against these guys.

    But, as I mentioned earlier, all of the above changes quite a bit if Lance (or any of the top riders) has a bad day. It only takes one tumble off the TT bike to blow the race open again.

    So here's my list of where I see the top 3.
    1. Lance - barring a problem, he's the odds on favorite.
    2. Tyler - I think Tyler is going to put some time into Jan in the mountains, and not lose enough in the final ITT. May be a little bit of a long shot, but I think Tyler has the drive and moxie to do it.
    3. Jan - Hey, it's better than a record setting 2nd place! The loss of the "first" ITT (well the loss of a flatt ITT) has really hurt Jan this year, more so than it hurt Lance.

    Mayo and Heras have a good shot for the other 2 spots in the top 5, but some of the team mates on USPS or Phonak or T Mobile could also hit some spoilers in there.

    Andrew

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by CarlJStoneham
    400k *euros*, not $. Given the current exchange rate, it'll be about $450k or more
    Well, right now for every euro, you have to pay $1.25. So it'll be half a million USD. That's a lot of greenback!

    Koffee

  24. #24
    Sprockette wabbit's Avatar
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    I'm rooting for Jan,but I suppose Lance will win yet again. It seems that way now. Of course, we all know that anything can happen, and the riders, especially lance know it better than anyone. And remember, lance doesn't win every race, even ones he wants to win like Amstel gold. I remember Erik Dekker saying that when he won that race, he was thinking "I can lose". says it's when you think "I can win", that's when you lose. I doubt Lance is going to think "it's in the bag" even if we do. I guess if anyone can win six, it's lance, but like we all agree, anything can happen. I wish it would. I would love to see anyone else win.My feeling is that if lance does falter at all it won't be until the third week. He'll be great in the first mountain stages in the pyrenees as always but there are huge alps in the last week and that will be the toughest. EVeryone will be putting huge amounts of pressure on him.
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  25. #25
    Crank Crushing Redneck SamDaBikinMan's Avatar
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    He'll win 6 and I'd wager he might even take #7 next year.

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