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Old 07-31-09, 06:49 AM   #1
DenisMenchov
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Predictions for 2010 TDF...Radio Shack Team / AC's new team, etc.

I got some predictions:

AC is going to be on a weaker team...that is a fact, so you can already conclude that if there is a team time trial, AC is going to lose some time. Not good for AC, losing time to both Lance and Andy.

Lance Armstrong will probably come out stronger in the 2010 TDF. More bad news for AC and Andy.

Michael Rasmussen may sign with a team, and has been known to beat AC in the mountains.

Vino will test positive again.

I think Lance or Andy will win due to being on a stronger team, and Contador might get 4th.
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Old 07-31-09, 06:58 AM   #2
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Wait, there's three of these threads already.

Let's talk about this weekends Clasica San Sebastian.
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Old 07-31-09, 07:00 AM   #3
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Why does everyone keep saying Lance will be stronger next year? He will be pushing 39! (btw - I'm older than that, so no offense to you other "old guys" )
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Old 07-31-09, 07:04 AM   #4
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LA was weaker this year though because he had been about 3-4 years out of cycling. Next year should be better for Lance.
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Old 07-31-09, 07:07 AM   #5
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LA was weaker this year though because he had been about 3-4 years out of cycling. Next year should be better for Lance.
Why?
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Old 07-31-09, 07:12 AM   #6
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Why?
Theoretically, he should boost his race fitness and acumen. But on the other hand, he is getting one year older.
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Old 07-31-09, 07:31 AM   #7
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It's not like he was sitting around drinking beer and eating pie. The guy was still competing at an extremely high level in retirement.

Now he will be a year older, running triathlons, etc. I just don't see this as something that will make him better next year. In fact, I wonder if he will even be the GC contendor on his own team, and I don't mean that as an insult. I see Radio Shack as a way to make money and set up a new American team that he can control, set up a future for Taylor, etc., not a way for him to win the TdF.
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Old 07-31-09, 07:47 AM   #8
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Contador wins. He probably will have to overcome a weaker TTT, but unless he has a bad stage somewhere he wins. Of course if Lance can make Andy into a TT man; but then Lance will be fighting him in an internal team stuggle.
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Old 07-31-09, 09:05 AM   #9
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AC is rumored to go to either Caisse Esp (sp?) or Garmin. Those are good teams and certainly can support him to 1st place.
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Old 07-31-09, 09:20 AM   #10
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I agree there, idk if i feel like LA is doing this to win but try to increase the US team base and try to push others towards the future
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Old 08-02-09, 12:47 PM   #11
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Well the whole Schleck brothers going to Radio Shack is a bust apparently. Who can Radio Shack sign that can compete with Andy or AC?
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Old 08-02-09, 12:58 PM   #12
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Well the whole Schleck brothers going to Radio Shack is a bust apparently. Who can Radio Shack sign that can compete with Andy or AC?
Peter Pan?

Otherwise, it's the old man or bust.
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Old 08-02-09, 01:59 PM   #13
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I got some predictions:

1 AC is going to be on a weaker team...that is a fact, so you can already conclude that if there is a team time trial, AC is going to lose some time. Not good for AC, losing time to both Lance and Andy.

2 Lance Armstrong will probably come out stronger in the 2010 TDF. More bad news for AC and Andy.

3 Michael Rasmussen may sign with a team, and has been known to beat AC in the mountains.

4 Vino will test positive again.

5 I think Lance or Andy will win due to being on a stronger team, and Contador might get 4th.

Well, obviously this is your wish list for next season. Not really predictions based upon logical analysis. Okay, let's see how you'll do out of your 5 predictions:

1. Not everyone on Astana will go to TRS. So it is yet to be determined how strong that team will be. So it is fare to say that Lance will be on a weaker team as well. We know that AC won't be with them. That makes them weaker. AC will go to another team. That will make that team stronger. We won't know the difference in gain or loss until we know all of the participants on each team. Your speculation about AC losing time to both Lance and Andy is highly suspect. If there is a difference it will not be significant enough to overcome AC's advantages in the mountains and ITT.

2. Lance Armstrong will have to work his ass off to perform at the same level he did this year. Athletes turning 39 do not get better. At best the stay the same. Invariably they get worse. He won't get be better without significant phamaceutical aid. Additionally, AC and Andy are 26 and 24 years old. They have yet to reach their athletic peak performace age wise. Really bad news for Lance and everyone else.

3. Rasmussen has been out of commission for couple of years. We don't know how he will perform. We have seen Contador. Contador is still improving. When the Chicken beat AC, they were both different riders.

4. Vino, well....no comment

5. As was mentioned above, Lance and Andy will not be on a team strong enough to wipe out the significant gains that Contador will get in the mountains and the ITT. Unless you think the TTT will give 5-6 minute gains, they won't even be close to AC.

So you got 1 out of 5 correct. But that Vino one really isn't that much of a stretch.
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Old 08-02-09, 02:38 PM   #14
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Seriously, do we even know if there will be a TTT next year. The TDF went several years without one so we may see that trend again.

Until the new team organizations are up and running we can't know who will be strong. Also, they could change the way that the TTT is timed since it has been differently in the past.
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Old 08-02-09, 02:51 PM   #15
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If Contador goes to Garmin, then as a whole his team may just be as strong as TRS or Saxo Bank.

As a whole, the breakup of Astana is a good thing for cycling. Next year's tour should be much more competitive in the GC.
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Old 08-02-09, 03:38 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by OrionKhan View Post
Well, obviously this is your wish list for next season. Not really predictions based upon logical analysis. Okay, let's see how you'll do out of your 5 predictions:

1. Not everyone on Astana will go to TRS. So it is yet to be determined how strong that team will be. So it is fare to say that Lance will be on a weaker team as well. We know that AC won't be with them. That makes them weaker. AC will go to another team. That will make that team stronger. We won't know the difference in gain or loss until we know all of the participants on each team. Your speculation about AC losing time to both Lance and Andy is highly suspect. If there is a difference it will not be significant enough to overcome AC's advantages in the mountains and ITT.

2. Lance Armstrong will have to work his ass off to perform at the same level he did this year. Athletes turning 39 do not get better. At best the stay the same. Invariably they get worse. He won't get be better without significant phamaceutical aid. Additionally, AC and Andy are 26 and 24 years old. They have yet to reach their athletic peak performace age wise. Really bad news for Lance and everyone else.

3. Rasmussen has been out of commission for couple of years. We don't know how he will perform. We have seen Contador. Contador is still improving. When the Chicken beat AC, they were both different riders.

4. Vino, well....no comment

5. As was mentioned above, Lance and Andy will not be on a team strong enough to wipe out the significant gains that Contador will get in the mountains and the ITT. Unless you think the TTT will give 5-6 minute gains, they won't even be close to AC.

So you got 1 out of 5 correct. But that Vino one really isn't that much of a stretch.
If there is a TTT I'm positive AC will lose time. This puts more pressure on AC. I'm positive Levi will go TRS, and I'm sure Kloden will follow. I wouldn't doubt that a lot of the domestiques will follow as well, unless they have contract obligations.

Doubt AC will go to Garmin, especially after Wiggin's 4th place performance. Garmin doesn't want a GC rivalry that occurred on Astana.

AC had it easy this year by being on such a great team. It will be 10x harder for him to win next year, unless the motorcycles give him even more aid on the ITT. Remember what happened when AC was on his own in '06...he got beat by Rasmussen with ease. Expect to see the same thing with Schleck or LA next year.

Lance stated AC does have weaknesses, and I'm sure that will be exploited next year.
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Old 08-02-09, 03:47 PM   #17
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Seriously, do we even know if there will be a TTT next year. The TDF went several years without one so we may see that trend again.

Until the new team organizations are up and running we can't know who will be strong. Also, they could change the way that the TTT is timed since it has been differently in the past.
Good point. It will be fun to hear Lance and his minions ***** about how "the French took out the TTT because they don't want me to win".
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Old 08-02-09, 04:07 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by DenisMenchov View Post
I got some predictions:

AC is going to be on a weaker team...that is a fact, so you can already conclude that if there is a team time trial, AC is going to lose some time. Not good for AC, losing time to both Lance and Andy.

Lance Armstrong will probably come out stronger in the 2010 TDF. More bad news for AC and Andy.

Michael Rasmussen may sign with a team, and has been known to beat AC in the mountains.

Vino will test positive again.

I think Lance or Andy will win due to being on a stronger team, and Contador might get 4th.
*slaps head*

1. It's presumptuous to assume that TRS-80 will be granted a place in the pro tour or a invite to the tdf.

2. Why does age affect everyone but LA?

3. Caisse d'Epargne (a likely team for AC) lost 1.29 to Astana and only 49 seconds to Saxo. Not a huge deal for a climber like AC.
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Old 08-02-09, 04:08 PM   #19
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until the new team organizations are up and running we can't know who will be strong.
+100

There's also this assumption being made that TRS-80 will automatically be a strong team.
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Old 08-02-09, 04:46 PM   #20
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If there is a TTT I'm positive AC will lose time. This puts more pressure on AC. I'm positive Levi will go TRS, and I'm sure Kloden will follow. I wouldn't doubt that a lot of the domestiques will follow as well, unless they have contract obligations.

Doubt AC will go to Garmin, especially after Wiggin's 4th place performance. Garmin doesn't want a GC rivalry that occurred on Astana.

AC had it easy this year by being on such a great team. It will be 10x harder for him to win next year, unless the motorcycles give him even more aid on the ITT. Remember what happened when AC was on his own in '06...he got beat by Rasmussen with ease. Expect to see the same thing with Schleck or LA next year.

Lance stated AC does have weaknesses, and I'm sure that will be exploited next year.
As has been pointed out by other posters, the TTT might not even be in the event next year. I'm inclined to think it will be. But I wouldn't be surprised if they went back to the limited time losses rule previously used.

The mere fact that they are losing AC, the best time trialist from this years race, means that their team time trial squad is a little weaker. Whoever gets AC will get a little stronger. Again, if your banking on Lance winning solely on the strength of the TTT, you're begging. Whatever team AC goes to is going to be built around winning the TdF. They aren't going to just rollover in the TTT, if there is one. There is no way that Lance or Andy Schleck will get a 6 minute gain on the TTT. Any gains those guys get in the TTT will be wiped away in the mountains and the ITT.

What are you talking about '06 for? Did you watch this years TdF? You know the 2009 TdF. Rasmussen hasn't raced since then. Its highly speculative as to how his form will be. AC is clearly better than he was in '06. Funny how three years can make a difference like that when you're 23.

AC didn't have it easy this year. He had to defeat his teammate and director. He made it look easy because he's by far the best climber out there and a top time trialer.

Oooo, Lance said AC has weaknesses, huh? And you're sure that will be exploited next year? Again are these your predictions or fantasies?
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Old 08-02-09, 06:35 PM   #21
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Doubt AC will go to Garmin, especially after Wiggin's 4th place performance. Garmin doesn't want a GC rivalry that occurred on Astana.
I do not think Garmin would have any problems with a GC rivalry. At the moment Garmin do not have a true GC contender to rival and beat either Contador or Schleck the younger. Wiggins will have to have a considerable improvement in his climbing abilities if he is ever to be considered a true GC contender.

That is why I would not be at all surprised Garmin were to come out and named Contador as their new signing. With the addition of Contador, Garmin's TTT can only get better - if they don't lose anyone.
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Old 08-02-09, 08:52 PM   #22
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Wasn't Wiggins rumored to be going to the new British team, Sky someting or another, or did I miss some news in the last few days?
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Old 08-02-09, 09:02 PM   #23
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Wasn't Wiggins rumored to be going to the new British team, Sky someting or another, or did I miss some news in the last few days?
It was a rumor.
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Old 08-02-09, 09:25 PM   #24
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A strong team can wear down a strong climber on a weaker team on the windy flat stages. Remember how quickly the crosswinds split the field when Astana or Saxo Bank put the hammer down. Team RS will have the money to have a strong team I have no doubt. But until the 2010 TdF course is announced it's all just a guess as to who will benefit most.
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Old 08-02-09, 09:54 PM   #25
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*slaps head*

1. It's presumptuous to assume that TRS-80 will be granted a place in the pro tour or a invite to the tdf.
Lance's participation in the TDF this year basically doubled worldwide interest in the TDF, and increased US TV ratings by 80%. There is no way in hell team "the shack" will not be in the Pro tour.
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