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Old 07-12-04, 03:00 AM   #1
Cobra
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When will Armstrong start being more aggresive?

This is my first Tour De France so bare with me, and I dont know much about the strategy of cycling. But I heard the commentators talking about how the better riders (Lance Armstrong, Ulrich, ect) aren't attacking much yet.

So when do you guys think he will start becomming more aggresive?
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Old 07-12-04, 03:53 AM   #2
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Watch closely during stage 10. Although, stage 9 should offer some climbs for which to allow the contenders to make some probing attacks.
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Old 07-12-04, 04:05 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cobra
so bare with me, and I dont know much about the strategy of cycling. So when do you guys think he will start becomming more aggresive?
I'll keep my clothes on if you don't mind.

For the "Heads of State", the real deal will not start until the Pyrenees, which begin next Friday. Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton, etc...can take time out of the wannabees in the Massif, but the real GC folks will not begin to play until Friday. The Massif is the warmup act for the "real" GC riders.
Then the fireworks will begin.
The reason is that it is too difficult, at this level, to take time out of riders on flat stages. The reason Armstrong has the time he does now (over his main GC rivals), is due to the prologue and the team time trial.

The last week will be very tactical. If you don't know much about the tactics of cycle racing, listen carefully to Phil and Paul as they do a very good job of explaining the why's and what's.
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Old 07-12-04, 06:33 AM   #4
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Friday, July 16. Set your VCR. La Mongie (HC) preceded by Col d'Aspin (cat 1). If Lance is feeling strong he will want to put some time into Jan and Tyler.
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Old 07-12-04, 06:48 AM   #5
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Armstrong will be more aggressive when the race is at its hardest.

You have probably realized by now, that no one really gets away from the Peleton, unless they are "allowed to". If the riders in the breakaway are not a threat to the overall race, then the chase is not as swift as it could be. It's a 3 week race, and you have to meter your efforts so that you have the strenght when it matters most.

Lance would be foolish to try and get away on the flat stages, becuase there are 171 riders who would help in the chase.

In the mountains, the course itself will cause a selection, with just a handfull of riders able to match the pace of the leaders. Attacking here, when the race is at its hardest, hits your enemies when they are at their most vulnerable. This is a ruthless brutal sport, as you will soon see.

On the flats, gaps would open becuase riders decided not to chase, in the Mountains, gaps open becuase riders simply cannot chase.

Postal will try to keep the pace as high as possible up the mountains, to whittle to group down to just the super strong men. Then these men will look for weaknesses in each other which they will exploit. If someone looks weak, they will attack, and leave the weak behind. This is pain, this is suffering, this is misery, but this is where the race is made, and this is where the glory is forged.


I'm getting goosebumps just thinking about it.

Last edited by Smoothie104; 07-12-04 at 10:31 AM.
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Old 07-12-04, 07:16 AM   #6
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Thanks Smoothie for th illustration, that was a good insight of what's to come.
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Old 07-12-04, 08:48 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Grampy™
Friday, July 16. Set your VCR. La Mongie (HC) preceded by Col d'Aspin (cat 1). If Lance is feeling strong he will want to put some time into Jan and Tyler.
This should be the stage where the first significant separation takes place, Stage 12. Check out the course profile.
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Old 07-12-04, 09:40 AM   #8
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You guys might be suprised about stage 10. No huge climbs, but a few very tough ones, and it is an extremely long, hilly stage.

Stage 12 will be the first definite shakeup. And stage 13 might be 'un moment du tour'.
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Old 07-12-04, 01:27 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by roadwarrior
I'll keep my clothes on if you don't mind.

For the "Heads of State", the real deal will not start until the Pyrenees, which begin next Friday. Armstrong, Ullrich, Hamilton, etc...can take time out of the wannabees in the Massif, but the real GC folks will not begin to play until Friday. The Massif is the warmup act for the "real" GC riders.
Then the fireworks will begin.
The reason is that it is too difficult, at this level, to take time out of riders on flat stages. The reason Armstrong has the time he does now (over his main GC rivals), is due to the prologue and the team time trial.

The last week will be very tactical. If you don't know much about the tactics of cycle racing, listen carefully to Phil and Paul as they do a very good job of explaining the why's and what's.
Do you get Phil and Paul on commentary, I thought it was only on UK tv, they are good aren't they?
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Old 07-12-04, 02:10 PM   #10
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Let's all remember that Lance does not really have to attack at this point. He's got 30 seconds Hamilton and over a minute on Ulrich. All signs point to his ability to extend that lead in the time trials so he may be content to sit on his rivals and let them do the pace making.

-mark
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Old 07-12-04, 02:14 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by geneman
All signs point to his ability to extend that lead in the time trials so he may be content to sit on his rivals and let them do the pace making.
I wouldn't count on it, history indicates otherwise

-murray
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Old 07-12-04, 02:39 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by geneman
Let's all remember that Lance does not really have to attack at this point. He's got 30 seconds Hamilton and over a minute on Ulrich. All signs point to his ability to extend that lead in the time trials so he may be content to sit on his rivals and let them do the pace making.

-mark
1 minute is nothing with all of these stages left. (and two time trails, mind you)
Armstrong better go when he sees the chance. And he will, if he gets the chance.
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Old 07-12-04, 04:38 PM   #13
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newbie question here too, does anybody know how long and steep to categorized as cat1, cat2 and so on?
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Old 07-12-04, 04:47 PM   #14
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newbie question here too, does anybody know how long and steep to categorized as cat1, cat2 and so on?
I dont know exact numbers or the formula to come up with the categories but i know it has 2 factors, the gradient of the inclination and the distance.
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Old 07-12-04, 04:59 PM   #15
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What do the climb categories mean?

Climbs are graded according to their severity, from fourth to first category, plus the very hardest climbs which are considered 'hors categorie' or 'beyond category'. The gradings take into account the length and steepness of the climb and the position of the climb in the stage, with the quality of the road surface making up a final, less important factor.


http://www.faqs.org/faqs/bicycles-fa...ection-22.html

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Old 07-12-04, 06:51 PM   #16
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G'day,

Hors Category means "you don't wanna know how hard this is"...LOL

cheers,

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Old 07-13-04, 02:06 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brent_dube
1 minute is nothing with all of these stages left. (and two time trails, mind you)
Armstrong better go when he sees the chance. And he will, if he gets the chance.
He knows what he is about, and I am willing to bet he wins again this year, but alot of the credit has to go to George Hincappie who pulls him along day after day for very little recognition, I think if the roles were reversed the George could have taken the honours equally aswell!
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Old 07-13-04, 02:24 PM   #18
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He knows what he is about, and I am willing to bet he wins again this year, but alot of the credit has to go to George Hincappie who pulls him along day after day for very little recognition, I think if the roles were reversed the George could have taken the honours equally aswell!
You can only be pulled so far up a mountain by someone else, afterwhich you're on your own. While George is a fantastic rider, I don't think he has the same skills as Lance when the road goes vertical. Furthermore, compare his 170 lbs to Cunego's 130 lbs and it should be obvious where the advantage is (in general). If you can't climb with the best, you won't win the tour.

-mark
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Old 07-13-04, 03:25 PM   #19
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7 watts per kilogram for 20-30 minutes is the magic number for Grand Tour Contenders.
George would need over 540 watts

I have read that Cunego can put out 7 watts per kilogram while riding just BELOW his Anerobic Threshold.
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Old 07-13-04, 03:52 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoothie104
7 watts per kilogram for 20-30 minutes is the magic number for Grand Tour Contenders.
George would need over 540 watts

I have read that Cunego can put out 7 watts per kilogram while riding just BELOW his Anerobic Threshold.
Makes Ulrich's accomplishments that much more impressive. He's no flyweight.

-mark
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Old 07-13-04, 07:54 PM   #21
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It's funny but Lance could win another TDF by following Roberto Heras up the maountains one more time. He won't have to beat Roberto, just stay close.
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Old 07-13-04, 09:20 PM   #22
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Makes Ulrich's accomplishments that much more impressive. He's no flyweight.

-mark
According to CBS Sports web site, Lance is heavier.

http://www.sportsline.com/cycling/riders/page/400354
http://www.sportsline.com/cycling/riders/page/400058

Something wrong with the information?
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Old 07-13-04, 10:11 PM   #23
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I think the weights are the opposite, actually.
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Old 07-14-04, 08:22 AM   #24
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I think the weights are the opposite, actually.
5'8" and 170 pounds????

I think build is the main difference from climber to time trialist... not necessarily height or weight. (Isn't Mayo 5'11"?)
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Old 07-14-04, 09:37 AM   #25
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Mayos listed at 5'9" and 154 lbs.
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