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Old 10-16-09, 10:38 AM   #1
Blaireau
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2010 TdF: Not the best for Armstrong...

To put it mildly.
Just the fact that there will be no Team Time Trials is enough to drastically reduce his chances at victory. The TTT was Lance's only genuine chance of putting some serious time into Contador and others... (You can only do so much with a Bordure...)
And whatever one thinks of the guy (and I'm no fan of his), this will make for a much less interesting race. And that's too bad. I mean, does anyone (save for the press & organisers which have to drum up the event and the rivalry for obvious reasons) think that if Contador is on a halfway decent team he won't win hands down?
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Old 10-16-09, 11:14 AM   #2
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And whatever one thinks of the guy (and I'm no fan of his), this will make for a much less interesting race
Not it won't.
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Old 10-16-09, 12:08 PM   #3
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Not it won't.
How do you mean?
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Old 10-16-09, 01:05 PM   #4
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With the TTT in the race, a few strong teams get big leads, eliminating most riders on the other teams from contention early on. Without the TTT, every team has an equal chance to try to get their guy to the front and to work on breakaways, etc. With it likely that most of the teams will still have somebody in contention when the race reaches the Alps, the first few mountain stages could be real shootouts, with team tactics playing a VERY important role. That is one more reason to think Radioshack may have a better chance...nobody does team tactics like Johan, and with all the veterans on their roster, they will have a good chance to take advantage of mistakes by other teams/riders.
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Old 10-16-09, 01:37 PM   #5
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With the TTT in the race, a few strong teams get big leads, eliminating most riders on the other teams from contention early on. Without the TTT, every team has an equal chance to try to get their guy to the front and to work on breakaways, etc. With it likely that most of the teams will still have somebody in contention when the race reaches the Alps, the first few mountain stages could be real shootouts, with team tactics playing a VERY important role. That is one more reason to think Radioshack may have a better chance...nobody does team tactics like Johan, and with all the veterans on their roster, they will have a good chance to take advantage of mistakes by other teams/riders.
Wonderful doublethink!
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Old 10-16-09, 01:59 PM   #6
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To put it mildly.
Just the fact that there will be no Team Time Trials is enough to drastically reduce his chances at victory. The TTT was Lance's only genuine chance of putting some serious time into Contador and others... (You can only do so much with a Bordure...)
And whatever one thinks of the guy (and I'm no fan of his), this will make for a much less interesting race. And that's too bad. I mean, does anyone (save for the press & organisers which have to drum up the event and the rivalry for obvious reasons) think that if Contador is on a halfway decent team he won't win hands down?
was the giro interesting this year?

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Old 10-16-09, 02:06 PM   #7
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Wonderful doublethink!
Wonderfully brief and uniformative response!
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Old 10-16-09, 02:37 PM   #8
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How do you mean?
The TTT didn't help Lance vs. Alberto this year - they were on the same team. Yet LA still finished on the podium in a very exciting race.

Besides, you seem to be judging relative performance based on the Lance you saw this year. Next year's Lance will be the New, Improved model. More HP, bigger tank. I expect him to be able to go heads up (or very nearly) with Alberto, with the team perhaps making the critical difference. And even if he loses, old age and guile will keep us on the edge of our seats.



My interpretation, anyway.
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Old 10-16-09, 03:08 PM   #9
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The TTT didn't help Lance vs. Alberto this year - they were on the same team. Yet LA still finished on the podium in a very exciting race.

Besides, you seem to be judging relative performance based on the Lance you saw this year. Next year's Lance will be the New, Improved model. More HP, bigger tank. I expect him to be able to go heads up (or very nearly) with Alberto, with the team perhaps making the critical difference. And even if he loses, old age and guile will keep us on the edge of our seats.



My interpretation, anyway.
true but it helped Lance put time on everyone else otherwise he probably wouldn't have made the podium. RS looks to be a good team for the TTT but if there isn't one you have a bunch of old guys past their prime chasing the likes of the alberto contador, bradley wiggins and the schleck bros. BTW, i'll bet the new and improved lance doesn't make the podium next year.

ed rader

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Old 10-16-09, 03:19 PM   #10
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...Yet LA still finished on the podium in a very exciting race.
In retrospect, I didn't think the race was very exciting. The main rivals were on the same team.
As for the comments about Lance being able to hang w/Contador. Not 1on1 but Team Shack has a pretty formidable team that will allow Lance to save himself and pick his moments. I cannot imagine Contador having that luxury regardless of where he winds up. And if for some reason he is stuck with Vinky and Astana, he is almost certainly doomed regardless of his talent.

BTW don't discount Wiggins. He is my dark horse. That guy learned a lot in a year. I expect him to come back stronger and even leaner.
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Old 10-16-09, 04:21 PM   #11
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Wonderfully brief and uniformative response!
You are half right. It was brief. It is quite informative to the well read.
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Old 10-16-09, 04:47 PM   #12
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Who cares about Armstrong?

Oh wait, I forgot, the solar system of cycling revolves around Texas.

Anyway, the Brilliance of Brunyeel will be less of a factor once radios are banned. It's also still somewhat unclear where Contador will end up, though it does look like the 2010 route will favor Contador over some of his rivals (e.g. Schleck). Heck, Sastre won't even say if he will do Le Tour next year....
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Old 10-16-09, 04:48 PM   #13
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How do you mean?
Lance doesn't make the TDF exciting. It was exciting before he was even born and will remain so when he thankfully finally retires for good.
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Old 10-16-09, 04:58 PM   #14
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I'm in the 'wait and see' camp. Looking forward to it.
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Some sort of pithy irrelevant one-liner should go here.
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Old 10-16-09, 05:26 PM   #15
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Lance doesn't make the TDF exciting. It was exciting before he was even born and will remain so when he thankfully finally retires for good.
To the non-fan public, it is a bit more exciting - or just visible - when he's in it, unfortunately. Unless we're all satisfied with the TdF being a niche 'fan thing'.
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Old 10-16-09, 07:15 PM   #16
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There's going to be more than two people (Lance and Contador) racing in the 2010 Tour. Just because there is no TTT doesnt mean its already over for Lance or that Contador has it all wrapped up. I wouldnt doubt if someone else besides one of these two ends up winning it all. Maybe its schlecks year? Valverde? Evans? Any of the other 175 riders in the peleton? Why is it already Lance or Contador or no one winning?
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Old 10-16-09, 08:21 PM   #17
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Fans were complaining that the 2009 TdF was 'mountain light'. Massif Central is out again, but has provided many dramatic moments in the past and many wonder why it was left out.

Contador may not have total support behind him. Who knows what Vino has planned or who's going to manage the team.

Expect Andy Schleck to be right there to the end.

Should be an interesting TdF and would expect some surprises.
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Old 10-16-09, 08:29 PM   #18
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I think the TTTs make some of the more interesting stages but it's not like I won't watch it or won't like it simply because they took them out. Any way you look at it the TDF is still the cycling event. Nearly everyone at least has heard of the TDF (though I didn't even know I got it here in the US until I got into cycling).
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Old 10-16-09, 11:06 PM   #19
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To put it mildly.
Just the fact that there will be no Team Time Trials is enough to drastically reduce his chances at victory. The TTT was Lance's only genuine chance of putting some serious time into Contador and others... (You can only do so much with a Bordure...)
And whatever one thinks of the guy (and I'm no fan of his), this will make for a much less interesting race. And that's too bad. I mean, does anyone (save for the press & organisers which have to drum up the event and the rivalry for obvious reasons) think that if Contador is on a halfway decent team he won't win hands down?
Its only less interesting if you're only watching the race and focusing on Lance. Not having the TTT actually makes it more competitive overall.

Lance would need three TTT's to take enough time out of Contador to challenge. Realistically, Lance won't challenge the like of Andy Schleck either. On separate teams, Contador is going to attack Lance much earlier than he was allowed to in this year's race. Contador won't be held back by nonsense strategy of trying to get multiple teammates on the podium. Contador will take even more time on the ITT. Lest we are quick to forget that he beat three time world ITT champion Cancellara. If you remove the TTT and the stage where Lance took advantage of Columbia busting apart the peloton, Lance didn't take time out of the AC or AS on any stage.

Sure Lance has a shot to win, just like 180 other riders in the race. He'll place high, but barring accident, positive tests, illness, etc., Lance won't beat Contador. Believing that Lance has a significant shot at winning next year's TDF betrays one's ignorance of the sport of bike racing and bias towards Lance.

The race will be interesting TTT or not. There was great racing this season and Lance wasn't involved in it. The Giro was a great race this year without Lance in contention. Denis Menchov and Cadel Evans, two riders much maligned for their inability to win the big races got some redemption this year. Menchov seriously manned up at the Giro to fend of Diluca. Cadel rode a great Vuelta, finishing on the podium but having his real shot at the top spot killed by a punture at the absolute wrong time. Then he turned and attacked in the final lap to win the road World Championship.

Many of the so-called cycling fans need to have a reality check and ask themselves are they cycling fans because they love cycling or because Lance is in the race?
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Old 10-18-09, 10:57 PM   #20
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You are half right. It was brief. It is quite informative to the well read.
I have no idea what doublethink has to do with someone's opinion about team tactics in a bicycle race. txags has a valid point in contrasting tactics (intelligence) with the overwhelming need for pure physical horsepower required to win a TTT.

People often belittle intellectual concepts by applying them to very non-intellectual things (myself included). If you're going to do it, at least explain yourself instead of claiming that people are dumb if they can't make the same logical leap you made to come up with the statement.

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Old 10-19-09, 12:46 AM   #21
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It is quite informative to the well read.
What, like only the select elite know what "doublethink" references?



One is amazed that such as you would stoop to these plebian forums!
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Old 10-19-09, 01:28 AM   #22
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Doublewhat?
This thread is kind of silly because who bloody cares about LA anymore and all his geriatric buddies, boohoo there's no TTT in 2010, and it will be thrilling to see a new team involved with such strong backing, and Johan will get those boys straightened out and it's going to be wickedly exciting to watch them.
Awesome thread.
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Old 10-19-09, 10:11 AM   #23
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The TTT didn't help Lance vs. Alberto this year - they were on the same team. Yet LA still finished on the podium in a very exciting race.

Besides, you seem to be judging relative performance based on the Lance you saw this year. Next year's Lance will be the New, Improved model. More HP, bigger tank. I expect him to be able to go heads up (or very nearly) with Alberto, with the team perhaps making the critical difference. And even if he loses, old age and guile will keep us on the edge of our seats.



My interpretation, anyway.
Interesting remarks.

Lance cannot beat Alberto head to head in any event save the TTT. Not in the mountains, not in a TT. The TTT was Lance's only chance of improving this year over Alberto. Just because in all likelihood his team will be better than Alberto's.
This chance is gone. Age and guile won't make a difference neither in the race of truth nor in the mountains. The race is over before it begun...
And to address your last remark: I think it is precisely because Lance and Alberto were on the same team that Alberto was not allowed to put in more time between them on the mountains.
I am disappointed by all of this, btw. I really don't want to spend 3 weeks watching a coronation.
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Old 10-19-09, 12:01 PM   #24
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I have no idea what doublethink has to do with someone's opinion about team tactics in a bicycle race. txags has a valid point in contrasting tactics (intelligence) with the overwhelming need for pure physical horsepower required to win a TTT.

People often belittle intellectual concepts by applying them to very non-intellectual things (myself included). If you're going to do it, at least explain yourself instead of claiming that people are dumb if they can't make the same logical leap you made to come up with the statement.
Go back and read the post of the person I was responding to. It starts:

Quote:
With the TTT in the race, a few strong teams get big leads, eliminating most riders on the other teams from contention early on.
And Team Radioshack is one of 2 or 3 such teams. Yet in the end he concludes that having no TTT will benefit TRS becasue of their use of team tactics. Yea they are so much better off NOT having eliminated half of their competition.
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Old 10-19-09, 02:35 PM   #25
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Doublethink.


Except for those who believe Alberto towed the whole Astana team to victory...
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