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Old 06-25-10, 01:36 AM   #1
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TDF 2010 stage 16 - Bagnčres-de-Luchon - Pau 199.5 km, Tue. Jul 20

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Old 06-25-10, 02:09 AM   #2
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Painful stage.
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Old 06-25-10, 02:53 AM   #3
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Sprint locations selected by an utter sadist.
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Old 06-25-10, 10:01 AM   #4
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nice gentle warmup to the climbs here-eh? expecting more fireworks the day after instead of here but still
should introduce some changes to all the classifications. still...not much comparable to starting off your
day with the peyresourde though-nice breakfast.

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Old 07-08-10, 04:10 PM   #5
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nice gentle warmup to the climbs here-eh? expecting more fireworks the day after instead of here but still
should introduce some changes to all the classifications. still...not much comparable to starting off your
day with the peyresourde though-nice breakfast.
You will be disappointed. The day after is a rest day!

When I looked at teh profile I had visions of stage 17 of 1969, but initially fell into the same trap as you did, thinking a tough MT finish the next day so no one would take the risk.

But rest day the next day, and then the TDF site says it is virtually the same route as where Eddy finished off everyone else in 69.

Will it be enough to tempt someone to try to duplicate the feat?

I don't think so, but perhaps the excitement. If some team gets 2 riders over the Tourmalet first or some select group is over with a gap perhaps we will see a major sorting out.
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Old 07-08-10, 04:33 PM   #6
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Peyresourde is where Casartelli crashed and died.
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Old 07-08-10, 11:34 PM   #7
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You will be disappointed. The day after is a rest day!

When I looked at teh profile I had visions of stage 17 of 1969, but initially fell into the same trap as you did, thinking a tough MT finish the next day so no one would take the risk.

But rest day the next day, and then the TDF site says it is virtually the same route as where Eddy finished off everyone else in 69.

Will it be enough to tempt someone to try to duplicate the feat?

I don't think so, but perhaps the excitement. If some team gets 2 riders over the Tourmalet first or some select group is over with a gap perhaps we will see a major sorting out.
good call! missed that. who is most likely to go eddy? rasmussen or virenque if they were racing would be likely candidates. perhaps sastre but if i hadda pick one rider, it would be vino. seems like when he goes, his attacks stick. when he doesn't go and has someone else's pace forced on him, he doesn't do as well.
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Old 07-18-10, 02:02 PM   #8
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Sprint locations selected by an utter sadist.
yep. no sprinters will be left to contest them; the'll all be in the grupetto.
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Old 07-19-10, 10:01 AM   #9
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good call! missed that. who is most likely to go eddy? rasmussen or virenque if they were racing would be likely candidates. perhaps sastre but if i hadda pick one rider, it would be vino. seems like when he goes, his attacks stick. when he doesn't go and has someone else's pace forced on him, he doesn't do as well.
Much as I hope for an Eddy, I don't see one. Not even enough to call a realistic hope.

But I do have hopes for the stage. If the pace gets pushed then perhaps a select group goes over either of the last 2 climbs. If either AS or AC is missing (doubtful) the other will want to push. More likely AC and CS and some, but not all of those contending for third. Any of those 3rd contenders will want to push. If a select group goes over the Tourmalet it could result in the race being broken to pieces with 3 or 4 groups all fighting for time.

Or they could take it easy. If easy enough a Green Jersey contender jsut might be able to hang. That could be a huge payoff for any that do as there will be few such and even though it is the lowered points for a mountian stage there are 2 sprint points. 6+6+20 points gained would be huge.

The worst for the viewers is if they go hard but cautious. All the GC contenders in a group and nothing for anyone to battle over for 60 Kms or so after the last climb.
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Old 07-19-10, 12:15 PM   #10
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I'm hoping for AS to go off, but in all honesty today is probably not his day. He's not the best descender in the peloton, so it's hard to see him getting in yellow. More likely he will focus on Thursday. Still, if the chips fall into place right, AS going over the top with either Menchov or Sanchez would be awesome!
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Old 07-19-10, 01:45 PM   #11
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any chance they could get Spartacus or Jens into a break to help out. 50K is a long time for small groups to keep time gaps.
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Old 07-19-10, 03:24 PM   #12
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any chance they could get Spartacus or Jens into a break to help out. 50K is a long time for small groups to keep time gaps.
Jens? Slight possibility. Very slight.
Fabian?

Best hope is Tony Martin gets in a break and decides to tow someone in.

The prospect of losing time to Menchov on the run in should weigh heavily in the conduct of the stage.
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Old 07-19-10, 05:50 PM   #13
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It is going to be on for this stage. I wonder when Andy will go off?
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Old 07-19-10, 07:17 PM   #14
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It is going to be on for this stage. I wonder when Andy will go off?
Thursday.

If Schleck lets his desire for revenge get the better of him, he will probably grab 30 seconds on the climb, and then lose most of it on the descent. He'll just waste the energy he'll badly need on the Tourmalet (and/or TT).

IMO, if Schleck blasts off tomorrow, he'll not only lose 1st place, he'll wind up in 3rd behind Menchov.
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Old 07-19-10, 07:27 PM   #15
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This is gonna be interesting.

I think AS has a little to much confidence. Hes put 10 seconds and lost 10 seconds to AC in heads up racing. Contador is pretty comfortable to mark AS to this point as he has trusted his TTing only down 41/31 seconds(prior to today).

AS will not drop AC.
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Old 07-19-10, 07:33 PM   #16
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This is gonna be interesting.

I think AS has a little to much confidence. Hes put 10 seconds and lost 10 seconds to AC in heads up racing. Contador is pretty comfortable to mark AS to this point as he has trusted his TTing only down 41/31 seconds(prior to today).

AS will not drop AC.
I agree. I think Andy is letting emotions get in the way. He's been talking a mean game like he's the one who has won 4 grand tours. But he hasn't been able to get anything out of AC either. Stage 15 may just cause him to try something rash like an all out attack. That could open him up for a serious counter move if his attack fails.
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Old 07-19-10, 07:38 PM   #17
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Stage 15 may just cause him to try something rash like an all out attack. That could open him up for a serious counter move if his attack fails.
That would be very reckless. If he physically exhausts himself trying to wear down Contador unsuccessfully, he can be overtaken by Menchov and Sanchez and end up in 4th place overall.
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Old 07-19-10, 07:41 PM   #18
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After today's stage, Andy sounded mad enough to try. We'll see how it goes.
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Old 07-19-10, 08:33 PM   #19
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Ouch!!!
I thought the Portet D'aspet was where Casartelli died?they passed by the monument today, but I had also always thought it was the Peyresourde.
I do remember the Peyresourde was where Jan fell into that ditch on the descent....fortunately he wasn't injured but fell right into the drink!
I think Menchov is a good possibility...and Basso, who has been rather invisible, lives for these torturous mountain passes. If he's going to try and win a stage, this would be one of the best for him.
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Old 07-19-10, 08:43 PM   #20
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After today's stage, Andy sounded mad enough to try. We'll see how it goes.
It's a good thing they don't test for pissedofferone. Andy would be off the scale.
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Old 07-20-10, 06:58 AM   #21
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I think Andy will take today as a cool down (temper that is) day, think more tomorrow and
then attack on the final climb up the Tourmalet Thursday.
Interesting break on today's stage, any bets the old man tries to go out with a
bang? (not moreau either).
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Old 07-20-10, 07:23 AM   #22
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Yeah, today is the wrong day for Schleck to try something. It's a long way from the summit to the finish and he's not a very good descender. He'd have to hope for a complete crack from Contador or to somehow get away with Sanchez & some other good descenders who would be willing to help.
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Old 07-20-10, 07:32 AM   #23
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Ya know, I don't think I'd mind Armstrong taking a big swing at a stage win if the commentary was a touch less hagiographic...
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Old 07-20-10, 07:50 AM   #24
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Could the stage be gifted to Armstrong?
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Old 07-20-10, 07:53 AM   #25
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