guadzilla

Heh, I deserved that for my unforgivable crime against grammar. I didnt even notice it after posting until just now.

Re your other statement - true. However, I doubt if any single GC contender is going to open up a lead on the others on the flat stages and I have yet to see anyone who can put the hurt on Contador when the road points up.

The guy has won 4 Grand Tours and is in his prime - I am surprised to see so many people writing him off.

V.

FlashBazbo

Oh, I'm not writing him off. I would still put him #1 (Frank Schleck #2, followed by Andy, followed by Kloden).

In fact, I think Contador winning (with his current Astana team), is a far bigger accomplishment than any of Armstrong's wins -- all of them with a superteam.

OrionKhan

That's just wishful thinking. Clearly you haven't actually watched Contador race in the last couple of years if that is your hope.

The problem that the GC contenders have to deal with is attacking and not dropping AC. Then having AC launch one of his brutal attacks. Everyone then just watches the kids fly up the mountain. Maybe A. Schleck keeps up for a while. Basso might be able to hang with him. But there are only a few that have demonstrated the ability to do so. Then there is the ITT to deal with.

Team ain't gonna have nothing to do with it. Its gonna take someone manning up and out riding AC. Someone is going to have to drop Contador on the Col du Tourmalet. That or bad luck.

StumpJumperFSR

Has anyone with a weak team ever won in recent years? Lance would need to gain time on AC during other stages. If you push Contador on the flat stages, he'll have less gas for the climbs. If you let the climbing stages decide the winner, then I would think AC would win. Might be a rare tour where we'll see GC riders attack on flat stages?

FlashBazbo

The only winner in the last ten years with a weak team was . . . . . . . Landis.

Oops.

nvrlnd7

Well the guy has won most of the races he's been in,and said he was only at dauphine for some miles,and still took the jersey+the alp stage.andy schleck,nada untill getting his TT title recently,dickstrong nada, a bunch of 2nds and non placements,wiggo nada,van de velde nada,sastre nada.

The form will be there and the explosives,he's holding back,give everyone the impression they can take him but he'll blast out on the first steep stage like last year and mentally cripple most of the GC field. Basso looks strong,and Cadel is going to fight tooth and nail,those are guys to watch.

OrionKhan

Astana isn't weak. They may not be the strongest, but they're not BMC either.

You make no sense. Pushing on a flat stage only weakens the team pushing the pace. Really the only team we've seen consistently do it and win is Columbia. Teams pushing on flat stages will have sprinters looking to win. They're not doing it to create time gaps. Sure, last year Columbia split the peloton chasing down a breakaway on a heavy cross wind day. And even loosing time that day, AC still came back to win. Why, because of the time gaps that will be created by mountain top finishes and the ITT.

Splitting the peloton is a fairly rare occurrence. It happened in the Giro this year. But the Giro had brutal weather and a brutal coarse to match. Every stage was a free for all. The TdF will be much more controlled. Columbia and Garmin will be battling for sprint supremacy. A couple of other teams will mix it up with them. But the rest will be along for the ride. AC just has to sit in the peloton. Just like everyone one else.

diphthong

contador is obviously the favorite because he is consistently the best climber of all the gt contenders
and arguably the best time-trialist as well. when the mountains hit, the only other contender that has been able to attack multiple times is andy schleck. the rest are hanging on for dear life and fighting for the scraps of 3rd-10th place. i don't expect anything to change this year. sure, injury/crashes/illness/bad day/mechanicals could jeopardize that but most every rider has as least one of these. i wouldn't hold your breath waiting for fate to jump in and stop contador if i were another contender.
he's not the best tactician but his aggressiveness-at this stage of his career-outweighs that. he can
still get away with a manuever like what he pulled on the tdf stage (17??) last year where he isolated himself (with the schlecks). in 3 years...maybe not. contador is strong enough, he can use the other contenders and follow their moves until they've shot their wad, then accelerate away if teammates are not performing well.

everyone else is racing for 2nd place and they know it.

Hezz

They may not have as many climbers as RS but they may not need them. If I was Astana I would have 1 rider work with Vino to try and attack all of the time. Go for it as much as possible and then have Contador sit back and ride conservatively and ignore all attacks except on high mountain passes. If Vino can ride the TDF as well as the Giro he can be a wild card to through off attacks on Contador.

guadzilla

Contador last year - half his team was riding was Lance and actively trying to put the hurt on him. He pretty much carved out his own win last year.

:facepalm:

V.

Rippin

This !

USAZorro

This is America. We don't need facts to back up our opinions.

Only five more days to go boys and girls. It will be interesting to see what AC can do in a Grand Tour without Bruyneel trying to micromanage him.

lotek 

One stage where not having a strong team would have serious impacts is stage 3 Wanze > Arenberg Porte du Hainaut
with the 4 cobbled sections. A puncture or other mechanical here could be devastating for any rider, but not having a strong team to pull the GC contender up would be almost disastrous. Think Euskatel in the 2004 tour where their Iban Mayo lost something like 4 minutes on the stage no matter how good a climber, hard to make up that kind of deficit.
no matter, it's going to be an interesting tour. Personally I'm pulling for Basso to pull off the double.

merlinextraligh

1989 is not exactly ancient history.

Keith99

Yea! Armstrong had the strongest team since La Vie Clair in 1999. <End Sarcasm>

I don't like Lance, but credit where credit is due, in 1999 he had a subpar team.

Keith99

When was the last time someone thought to be a top GC rider entered a TDf with a truely weak team? (I do not consider Astana such). I don't think 89 counts as he was considered damaged goods. I can think of one, but have to go back to the days of National teams to get him.

cjbruin

Greg Lemond did in 1989. His team was a joke that year.

socalrider

Most people and even lemond thought that a top ten result in 1989 would of been a successful tour.. His team that year was subpar..

hodadmike

Ha! Ty Webb to Judge Smails!

whitemax

The team is going to have a lot to do with it. If you'll recall on stage 7 of the TDF last year when AC attacked, Andy caught back up to him. Mont Vonteaux he had Lance and a Shleck with him right there at the finish. Seems AC can climb for a bit better than anyone; not sure his endurance is going to get him there this year.

Romans8:28

********************

Andy did not "catch back up"

In stage 7 last year Alberto put 21 seconds on Andy (and several others) in only the last 1-2 kilometers (can't remember the exact distance). He put another 43 seconds on Andy finishing stage 15.

The only reason he finished with Andy and LA on Vonteaux is because JB ordered him to babysit Lance up the climb to preserve his (LA's) podium spot.

OrionKhan

You must not have been watching very close last year. On stage 7, AC attacked and finished 21 seconds ahead of Schleck and LA. Going into the the Ventoux stage, AC had a significant lead (over 4 minutes) going into the stage. He had no need to attack LA and AS. AC just had to cover their moves. They were the ones who needed to drop AC. The next day they rode into Paris.

Come on, man. You gotta put in better effort than that.

Dubbayoo

He doesn't need a strong team. he claims he won last year with no help. Now we'll see if he was right. He probably was since there is no TTT this year.

rogwilco

I really don't think Contador gave a **** about Armstrong or anything Bruyneel says anymore at that point. But he didn't to attack so sitting back was by far the safest option to secure his overall victory. I felt at the time that Andy Schleck also still had some gas in the tank but didn't want to attack to maybe pull his brother on the podium.

USAZorro

Andy knew the futility of attacking Contador, and had no motivation to do so, other than to see if Frank could gain time on Lance to make the podium. Alberto most definitely was still being a good team rider, as he helped pull Lance back a couple times when the Schlecks tried to make a break.