So, it's already tomorrow and the changed route seems interesting, with 6 categorized climbs- and Jaizkibel appearing twice. Also, despite Contador, Menchov and Chavanel's withdrawals, squads look really strong- six from TdF's GC top ten are taking part along defending champion Barredo, Nibali, Sastre, Lulu Sanchez, Vino, Arroyo and many others.
Rodriguez and Samu Sanchez have already expressed their excitement with new route and said it suits them perfectly.
Personally I'm a little dissappointed with Vino replacing Alberto- I wanted to see Navarro fighting for himself for once (Contador probably wouldn't go for the win), but it seems less likely now.
Anyway, my guess is Rodriguez will win with maybe Nibali as runner-up.