Kayce

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/canc...ycling-project

With their most recent signing, is there a team is overall better, in a variety of races that the Luxembourgers? Garmin doenst have a GT rider, Saxo doesnt have any classics riders. The only team that I think even comes close is Liguigas.

collegeskier

The Luxembourgers as far as I can remember lack a true sprinter. I don't think that Garmin has a Tour threat, but certainly CVV and Ryder have to be considered GT riders, with an outside threat to win. Top 10's at the tour are not given out for free, and healthly team could be interesting. That said I thing Garmin will be looking to get Tyler wins and/or Thor the green jersey.

Sea Green Sky

CVV has had about one impressive GT placing and can't stay on his bike now. He is an overrated domestique. Ryder might place well though.

collegeskier

So 8th place is not impressive. Especially considering he spent part of that time riding in support of Wiggins.

ultraman6970

Next season will be pretty interesting.

Kayce

I dont think C V V is a top tier GT threat. He is a step down from the big guns. He is on the level of Sastre, Wiggans, etc. Pretty good GT riders but dont quite have the extra matchstick to light for the win.

collegeskier

So who is a top threat other then AS who is still in the peleton? I know Sastre showed no good form this year, but he still was respected as a GC threat until he had lost significant time, and he has won the whole thing before. I also said they are gc riders not that I thought either would win the whole thing. Garmin might have the best all around team out there, however that does not actually get you results often. Having top 10 in every discipline is not as good as best in any one discipline.

rogwilco

Actually apparently Hushovd is planning to concentrate on the 1-day races and has pledged to help Farrar win the green jersey.

Kayce

Basso, Evans, Andy Schleck, Frank Schleck, Menchov, Contador(depending) and Anton are my guesses for real GC threats for the next season.


Wiggans, Van Den Broeck, Samuel Sanchez, Vande Velde, Nibali and Sastre will be talked about as GC threats, and may have a chance depending on the field of each tour, but will not be as high of a change against any of the others, in my eyes.


The Luxembourg team doesnt have a bunch sprinter(but I dont know if that matters with Grieple and Cavendish being on seperate teams now). But they have real candiates for the cobbled classics, the hilly classics, week long stage races, and two grand tour threats. I dont see another team with that many real threats over so many fields.

rogwilco

^^
I don't know, don't you think Basso's rather going to try to defend his Giro win than go all-out in the Tour?

DCnoJ

Maybe not.

Kayce

There are three grand tours, each with a GC winner. The Tour is not the only one.


My gut would tell me that it makes sense for him to focus on the giro(italian rider, italian team, defending champ), but my heart says he wants a tour win(and apparently his heart says the same thing).

collegeskier

I think especially if AC is out for the year or 2 that AS is the clear favorite in the Tour, the TTT will not hurt the Luxembourgers, but the wide open field might actually hurt them, to many people to mark on hills with too many guys that do much better on flat then up hill.

Garmin should be able to do pretty well in the TTT as well, and that might hurt some of the other GC contenders for the Tour.

collegeskier

Might depend on AC situation and AS's form. If they are back on like last year, it might be best to repeat in the Giro. And the Spanish will fight out the Vuelta. I would not be surprised if AC gets 1 year, misses the Tour and makes a comeback at the Vuelta.

Kayce

Garmin having Zabrinkski and Miller will create a good TT, but with out a GC threat it wont matter too much. Though the TT is early enough that the GC teams will have to be on the look out for big breaks that could help CVV.

If Garmin has a big day it could spell the end for a few threats(Basso, Evans and Contador mainly). Or open the door for some others I dont think would normally be as big of a threat(Wiggans, and Sanchez)

paperbackwriter

I disagree with how you divided them.
I don't think Vande Velde and Wiggins will be talked about as GC threats and to have them together with Nibali and Samu is a bit strange. Sky's Yates said neither the team, nor Brad himself believe he can win the Tour and obviously he can't win the Giro (same for Vuelta).
Between the rest (except Andy and- if he's there- Alberto, who should still be one step above everyone), things seem to be pretty open. For example, I don't see much difference between Sammy and Menchov at the moment. I know Denis has more impressive palmares, but it doesn't matter on the road and who knows if the Tour podium wasn't lost by Sanchez only because of the fissure in his hand. And I'd certainly rate Nibali higher than Frank Schleck or Evans.* As for Anton, he's a phenomenal climber, but do we really know how good he can be in the third week? He rarely gets there.
Also, what about Ricco? Are you assuming he won't be invited? If he's there, I can definitely see him winning Giro. And as you never know with Anton, I don't rule out someone like Rodriguez winning the Vuelta, if he focuses more on fewer goals next season.

*It's also good to have in mind what riders have already revealed about their next season. Neither of the three can beat Contador/Andy in top shape (well, with the latter one, Frank obviously won't even try), but being at their best, they could challenge most of the other riders. Nibali knows this and targets Giro. It's freakishly hard and he won't have much opportunities to use his strenghts (TTing, descending), but he's still more likely to win a GT with this attitude than guys who prefer to hit the wall at the Tour. (Not to mention he's younger, likely to improve and doesn't have a painful GT history like Cadel has.)
BTW guys who said they're doing Giro, Scarponi has a pretty good chance of winning a GT as well. He was 4th this year and in 2011 Basso most likely won't be there, L'Aquila break won't happen again and he is definitely no hopeless against Nibali on this route.

Oostal

As far as I understand Nibali will focus only on Giro and Basso on TdF. I think Liquigas had to promise a grand tour for both of them as they are equally good.

IMHO it will be either AS, Basso or Evans in TdF. Of course add AC in case he will be allowed. It appears to me that Liquigas has built up a much better all around team than BMC and hence I would give Basso an advantage over Evans. It was a pity to see Evans climbing all alone last year, when both Saxo and Astana had still numerous riders.

To be honest I am looking more forwards to the Giro. May be Evans will try to win the Giro instead of TdF. There are more mountain top finishes, more difficult roads (he is an ex-MTBer) and one more individual time trials (which he does pretty good actually). Plus he lives in Italy and it will be a more festive Giro (150th anniversary of unified Italian Republic). It will definitely not be easy for him tough.