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Old 06-30-11, 01:46 PM   #1
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Stage 4: Tuesday, July 5 173 km Lorient → Mūr-de-Bretagne

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Old 07-01-11, 03:36 PM   #2
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thinking gilbert or cuddles cadel evans here...
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Old 07-02-11, 02:39 PM   #3
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if contador is still down 20+ seconds on evans, a. schleck, et al at this point, he may make a statement on this short, finishing
climb and gain back some time. i don't think he'll bide his time till the pyrenees; too impetuous, too aggressive & too talented.
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Old 07-02-11, 02:51 PM   #4
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I don't think Contador is great over these short hills. Where Contador shines is the long mountain stages where everyone is suffering and just barely hanging on. That's when Contador attacks and since everyone is basically at their limit, they just have to watch him go.

I think this stage is for more for the type of guy that can put out an explosive burst of speed for a short period of time on an uphill finish. Gilbert (obviously), Hushov, Goss, and perhaps even Cunego, if he's feeling motivated.
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Old 07-04-11, 01:27 PM   #5
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Philippe Gilbert to win the stage and Cadel Evans to take the yellow jersey.
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Old 07-04-11, 01:31 PM   #6
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oh, i forgot to add that i wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see our boy vinokourov
try for a breakaway win in the last few km's. old habits die hard...
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Old 07-04-11, 02:02 PM   #7
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Liggett at the end of Stage 3 said Gilbert will go for the win on Stage 4 because it's his birthday and it finishes on Muur de Grammont... I thought "That's a long stage from Brittany to Flanders"
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Old 07-05-11, 12:02 AM   #8
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2km cat 3 climb??? Contador will go for it tomorrow to make an statement. If not, Evans will take the jersey tomorrow for sure and vino could try to get some time back too. Agree with ooga booga. Who will win? the climb is not that long but is a day of going up and down so the only thing that is sure is that cav will lose a few minutes tomorrow.
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Old 07-05-11, 05:13 AM   #9
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Contador should try to make a move here, and I'm sure he will. Evans is only 1 second away from the yellow jersey, and he is very strong on short finishing climbs like this. You know he wants it, but can his team control the race if he gets it?

My pick is Gilbert. He seems to win at will, and the added motivation of it being his birthday may make the difference. "Fast Phil" is simply awesome, and he really looks like he's having fun on the bike, especially when he wins.

I don't expect to see Hushovd winning this one. He climbs pretty well for a sprinter, but a cat 3 climb at the end of a long day of riding isn't going to serve him well. The specialists will leave him behind, no doubt.
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Old 07-05-11, 07:30 AM   #10
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We've cycled in that area on the Paris-Brest-Paris in 2003. The PBP route goes between Loudeac and Carhaix-Plouguer, and Mūr-de-Bretagne is in between the two.
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Old 07-05-11, 08:16 AM   #11
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Philippe Gilbert to win the stage and Cadel Evans to take the yellow jersey.
+1

Day 4 and I've been wrong 3 times so there's the kiss of death.
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Old 07-05-11, 09:07 AM   #12
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10km left, breakaway is still a minute ahead...

Can they do it? This is exciting for once!
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Old 07-05-11, 09:32 AM   #13
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Hushovd is one crazy sprinter!
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Old 07-05-11, 09:52 AM   #14
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Super impressive from Hushovd. He certainly earned that jersey today. I guess Gilbert is human after all.

I think this is actually good for Evans. No need for him to get the jersey this early and wear out his team. A stage win for him at this point is better than yellow.

It didn't look like Contador was tired from the Giro today. If he looks that way in the mountains, watch out.
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Old 07-05-11, 10:00 AM   #15
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Damn! I'm definitely enjoying the Tour this year. Definitely not turning out to be the preordained Contador/Schleck semi-snoozefest that most people were expecting. Evans looks like he's got the fire in him to win it this time. And Hushvod looked really impressive today.

Keep this up for another two and half weeks, and I'm going to be WELL entertained.
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Old 07-05-11, 10:21 AM   #16
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I was cheering for contador to attach in some moments "go @$#$@%$$!!, Goooo!,"

Evans and the BMC team did terrific job today! AC did what everybody thought was going to do, AS sucked big time, probably leopard gonna have to work for his brother, he looks more solid. Is clear now that the fight will be between AC and Cadel, AS looks weak, they shouldn't have leave him behind in a climb like this, in a matter of fact as steeper it gets the better for contador and maybe for evans.

Good race today.
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Old 07-05-11, 10:25 AM   #17
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It didn't look like Contador was tired from the Giro today. If he looks that way in the mountains, watch out.
I can't remember ever seeing that much pain on his face; he's usually stoic. I think if he wasn't hurting from the Giro, he would have just ridden away during his initial attack, even though this wasn't his kind of climb. The speed of his acceleration today, compared to the speed of his Giro attacks, was NOTHING.

I think his biggest advantage is that he can attack like that, and if somebody counters, he'll RECOVER while riding their pace once they're on his wheel, then go again. I just don't think this climb was long enough or steep enough to wear the other guys down. But as it was, if he'd started his sprint a couple seconds earlier, he'd have won.
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Old 07-05-11, 10:34 AM   #18
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I can't remember ever seeing that much pain on his face; he's usually stoic. I think if he wasn't hurting from the Giro, he would have just ridden away during his initial attack, even though this wasn't his kind of climb. The speed of his acceleration today, compared to the speed of his Giro attacks, was NOTHING.

I think his biggest advantage is that he can attack like that, and if somebody counters, he'll RECOVER while riding their pace once they're on his wheel, then go again. I just don't think this climb was long enough or steep enough to wear the other guys down. But as it was, if he'd started his sprint a couple seconds earlier, he'd have won.
It reminded me of the 2010 Fleche Wallonne a little bit (http://youtu.be/ujUbOPDou4g). The short climbs aren't really his strength, so he looks a little out of his element.
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Old 07-05-11, 10:38 AM   #19
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I was cheering for contador to attach in some moments "go @$#$@%$$!!, Goooo!,"

Evans and the BMC team did terrific job today! AC did what everybody thought was going to do, AS sucked big time, probably leopard gonna have to work for his brother, he looks more solid. Is clear now that the fight will be between AC and Cadel, AS looks weak, they shouldn't have leave him behind in a climb like this, in a matter of fact as steeper it gets the better for contador and maybe for evans.

Good race today.
I don't think anything is "clear" yet. How much time did AS lose to Dopeador today? He couldn't even dispose of Evans with his vicious accelerations. He dropped Evans at will on the mountains last year. This was just a molehill at the end of a stage.
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Old 07-05-11, 10:46 AM   #20
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AS lost 12 seconds today, tomorrow might lose more. Agree with Dxchulo that those short climbs doesnt fit him well. This tour will be decided between AC and Evans, Vino 3rd if the rides as today.
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Old 07-05-11, 10:54 AM   #21
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I can't remember ever seeing that much pain on his face; he's usually stoic. I think if he wasn't hurting from the Giro, he would have just ridden away during his initial attack, even though this wasn't his kind of climb. The speed of his acceleration today, compared to the speed of his Giro attacks, was NOTHING.

I think his biggest advantage is that he can attack like that, and if somebody counters, he'll RECOVER while riding their pace once they're on his wheel, then go again. I just don't think this climb was long enough or steep enough to wear the other guys down. But as it was, if he'd started his sprint a couple seconds earlier, he'd have won.
Today's finish was almost a repeat of FW 2010 where Cuddles took the win over a grimacing Contador, et. al.

As good as Contador is, he kinda sucks at the short "wall"-ish climbs. He's shown that sort of "weakness" in the past over and over.
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Old 07-05-11, 10:55 AM   #22
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I don't think anything is "clear" yet. How much time did AS lose to Dopeador today? He couldn't even dispose of Evans with his vicious accelerations. He dropped Evans at will on the mountains last year. This was just a molehill at the end of a stage.
This wasn't the stage profile that best suits AC. He prefers mountaintop finishes on steeper grades after there have been other climbs. Evans rode exceptionally well today, but he will steadily lose time in the high mountains - as will Vino.
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Old 07-05-11, 10:56 AM   #23
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AS lost 12 seconds today
8 seconds to Evans/Contador/Sanchez/Van Den Broeck
2 seconds to Wiggins/Basso

Most other GC guys were in with AS.
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Old 07-05-11, 10:56 AM   #24
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AS lost 12 seconds today, tomorrow might lose more. Agree with Dxchulo that those short climbs doesnt fit him well. This tour will be decided between AC and Evans, Vino 3rd if the rides as today.
The way this year's Tour is starting out, I'm not making any guesses until they've left the Pyrenees - and even then I'm not going to be sticking my neck out too much. This one is showing signs that it could be decided on the time trial.
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Old 07-05-11, 11:13 AM   #25
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This wasn't the stage profile that best suits AC. He prefers mountaintop finishes on steeper grades after there have been other climbs. Evans rode exceptionally well today, but he will steadily lose time in the high mountains - as will Vino.
Yeah, that's kinda what I said(meant). This molehill doesn't make anything "clear" yet. I was surprised Dopeador felt it necessary to attack. I also agree that Evans has never been able to hang with the big dogs when it gets down to the last 1%. I guess he needs a better doctor!
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