JayhawKen

And that was only because Hincapie tipped him off earlier that they were getting ready to wind it up.

JT Burkard

I think once Contador hits the Pyrenees we will see if he is still in contention. Right now he needs to concentrate on staying on the bike. For a returning champion, he is not riding with confidence. You can see it in his face he is not riding with full focus. Endless crashes, bike issues, etc will work on your psyche. Hopefully the rest day will being him back into fighting and I think we will see the Spanish bull rage on in the next few stages. He has to or he has no chance if he doesn't.

So far this has been an interesting year. I don't remember seeing so many large crashes in the first week with so many top riders going out so quickly due to them.

OrionKhan

Crashes happen to all of the riders at some time or other. It's not feasible to stay at the very front of the peloton due to repositioning. This you stated yourself. No rider is immune to crashes. This is simply being hypercritical of a guy who has won six grand tours in a row. In the end, it will come down to the combined strongest rider in the mountains and time trialer.

DXchulo

It's way too early to tell. If he shows Giro form in the mountains his team won't matter. If he ends up being tired it's not like a team of guys can push him up the mountains. If it's a close race then the TTT and some type of superhuman effort at the perfect moment by Cancellara or Jens could end up making a difference. I don't think Frank is worth as much as people think because they aren't willing to sacrifice him. They could prove me wrong, though.

Contador has had bad luck, but how many crashes were the result of his team being weak? It's impossible to know, really. During Stage 1, for example, was Contador in the wrong place at the wrong time because he has a weak team, or did he feel perfectly safe where he was at the moment? As mentioned, Sky has a strong team and they showed real unity when they all waited for Wiggins, but all it takes is one moment of bad luck to take a guy down.

Being behind Schleck actually works in his favor as far as having a strong team goes. Leopard is going to have to ride the climbs hard to try to prevent attacks. All Contador has to do is sit behind that train and wait until he's 1-on-1 with Andy.

guadzilla

i agree that Contador doesnt look like his normal self. He's been hitting the deck a lot this tour and his bike handling is normally superb.

I am guessing he is feeling the legs from the Giro and is not 100% confident - that, coupled with the time loss from the first stage, is making him skittish.

Or maybe he's just having a run of bad luck now that he's given up meat

OrionKhan

Crashes may be the doom of AC this year...https://sports.yahoo.com/sc/news?slug...rance-contador

Now will queue up the, "AC is using a hurt knee as his excuse for not winning" posts.

oneofpr

Now he knows how Lance felt... (oh no?)

I dont know, I think he maxed out to much in the Giro, and Jose Rujano helped push those limits as the venezuelan rider was superb.

guadzilla

^^ I dont think Rujano really pushed him too much. AC was way ahead in time anyway.

Anyway, Lance enjoyed 7 years of great luck, unlike say Iban Mayo. Must have been a Verbruggen-UCI conspiracy

Keith99

A knee injury is still the best change AS has to beat him.

If he does withdraw becasue of a knee injury you can bet that there will be those who say that means he is not a real champion. Guess that means the only rider to win all 3 grand tours twice is not a real champion either.

ultraman6970

At this point I'll start cheering for Voeckler, he had a lot of cojones yesterday. Like in the old days!

daveF

A 1:38 & 1:30 gap doesn't work in his favor! Not where he planned nor wants to be.

daveF

This is a different field than the Giro, and he doesn't look like the same rider. Maybe 1:40 would not have been too difficult 2 years ago. He most likely will find it insurmountable this year.

Keith99

Wow, we are in a world of 99ers. 1:40 is not much at all on a mountian stage where someone attacks. On a stage where someone plays mark the competition until the last KM and then perhaps attack it is huge.

Expect AC to actually attack befoer the last KM on some stage they year. Expect someone to profit because of that attack. 1:40 can be gone in a few miles.

Shadco 

Agreed 1:40 is not much especially with the mountain stages coming up. If AS is the most threatening challenger then that is really sad, where are the likes of an Ulrich, Beloki, Basso in his prime, Sastre, Pantani, etc.

Seems like a lot of folks are betting on Cuddles but it looks to me like the list of threatening GC contenders is very short and they don't stack up well to prior contenders.

FriendlyFred

[QUOTE=Shadco;12911904]Agreed 1:40 is not much especially with the mountain stages coming up.QUOTE]

Of course 1:40 isn't that much, by itself. The point I've been trying to make, obviously unsuccessfully, is.....Andy and Frank Schleck are the real competition for AC. Andy proved, last year, that he can stay with AC wheel for wheel in the MTs. The mts are the only place AC can really make up time. If Andy Schleck is AC's equal climbing, then AC can't make up much, if any, time on him. In that case, the 1:40 becomes nearly insurmountable.

I stick to my original assertation.....AC lost the Tour on the first day. I'll happily pay for the beers if proven wrong.

daveF

Expect someone else to attack before the last kilometer since Alberto is dealing with a swollen knee & fatigue from the Giro. And yes, I would expect several riders to profit none of whom are on Saxo Bank.

guadzilla

No, but it is VERY different when the guy who has to make up 1:40 has just ridden one of the hardest GTs in recent history (route wise) a month ago.

DXchulo

All else being equal I'm sure he'd rather have the same time as Andy. That way he could just follow attacks, keep it close, and not spend too much energy until the TT. That would be the best case scenario considering that he's coming off the Giro and now his knee is banged up. Nevertheless, there are certain advantages to being behind, especially when you're a guy like Contador who actually has a chance to make up that time. It puts all the pressure on Leopard. People say Saxo is weak, but they aren't the ones who will have to keep the pace high on the climbs.

Shadco 

[QUOTE=FriendlyFred;12912020]Time Trial.

Anyone remember Skeltor riding a time trial? it wasn't pretty

daveF

[QUOTE=Shadco;12912330]Only on one time trial. He made sure he didn't embarrass himself again, at least not in a time trial. These are the results when he was defending the yellow jersey 2 years later:
1 Alexandre Vinokourov (Kaz) Astana 1.06.34 (48.661 km/h)
2 Cadel Evans (Aus) Predictor - Lotto 1.14
3 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 1.39
4 Andrey Kashechkin (Kaz) Astana 1.44
5 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Cofidis - Le Crédit par Téléphone 2.14
6 Yaroslav Popovych (Ukr) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 2.16
7 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 2.18
8 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Cofidis - Le Crédit par Téléphone 2.38
9 Levi Leipheimer (USA) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 2.39
10 Mikel Astarloza Chaurreau (Spa) Euskaltel - Euskadi 2.42
11 Michael Rasmussen (Den) Rabobank 2.55
12 Vladimir Gusev (Rus) Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team 2.56
13 Leif Hoste (Bel) Predictor - Lotto
14 Linus Gerdemann (Ger) T-Mobile Team 3.09
15 Juan Manuel Garate (Spa) Quickstep - Innergetic 3.12
16 Juan Jose Cobo Acebo (Spa) Saunier Duval - Prodir 3.13
17 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Caisse d'Epargne 3.17
18 Kim Kirchen (Lux) T-Mobile Team 3.18
19 Oscar Pereiro Sio (Spa) Caisse d'Epargne 3.23
20 David Millar (GBr) Saunier Duval - Prodir 3.27
21 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 3.30

Keith99

That would make a lot more difference if he had been pushed. He seemed top be well within his limits on that tour.

Exclude the past 3 or 4 years and is is difficult to find a Major Tour where one of the contenders does not upt over a minute on most or all or his rivals on one or more stages. I can rememebr stages with over a minute in hte last few KMs and one of well over 5 minutes difference between the eventual winner and second place.

Riis is very familiar with that 5 minute pluss stage.

Edit:

Decided to look it up.

1' 54" on the second placed rider, 2' 57" on the 4th placed rider who also finished 4th that year and was the first of the contenders for the podium to finish (aside from the stage and Tour winner the riders in 2nd and 3rd that day finished the Tour over an hour back). Many contenders finished in a group 5' 43" back. The eventual 2nd place rider finished 8'57" back.

That rider also won the Giro that year, didn't seem to take too much out of him, though perhaps enough to keep him from picking up a KOM in the TDF, which kept him from duplicating the feat of Coppi, winning the GC and KOM in both the TDF and Giro in hte same year.

Of course this was Before Lance so it is unknown to many here.

XTR

I'm hoping that the 1:40 means that we will actually get to see some real attacks in the mountains and not the cover your competition till the last few hundred meters than attack for a few seconds gain. Some real attacks that split up the GC guys would be refreshing to see.

curiouskid55

AC was sick for the entire tour last year.AC had only one trustworthy teamate last year. AS expected the field to be neautralzed everytime he had a problem.
AC has had only two mishaps so far that he should have been smart enough to avoid. The rest is all bs and bad luck.
The injured knee is worrisome. May equalize him with the rest of the field in the mtns. If not his strong team and he will ride away from them all . Stage after stage after stage. Just like the Giro.

daveF

A 1:30 gap to AS would have been insurmountable last year, let alone this year. There are no advantages to being behind by that time gap. Being 3 seconds behind Cadel you could use that reasoning. Being behind Cadel by 1:41, Frank by 1:38, & Andy by 1:30 is not advantageous. It is seldom good being behind another favorite. Much better to be behind someone who is not going to compete for the overall.

Keith99

I'll agree that those gaps are not an advantage, but far from insurmountable. AC was behind Evans by over a minute last year at about this point.

Again with real attacks 1'40" is gone easily. In the world of mark until the final climb it is huge. But these riders are not fools, they adjust their gameplan to what they need. That Ac got back all he needed with the conservative plan does not mean he might not have gotten more with a real attack.