Hezz

This early in the race these placements mean nothing. AC's team is designed with a bunch of small climbers to help him in the mountains. Most of these small climbers cannot really contest or compete against the bigger stronger riders on the flat stages so at this point in the race they are way down at the bottom of the GC. But they can put serious hurt on the big guys in the mountains. On the big mountain stages you will see the big guys back 15-45 minutes by the end of the stage and only 10-20 racers in the peloton will even be able to keep up with those climbers. And that is only one stage. After three or four big mountain stages many of those climber domestiques will be in the top 30 on GC. And guys who you thought were so awesome will be down 2-3 hours on GC.

stinkyclimber

Everyone seems to be talking about how the knee could be putting him out of contention. Couldn't AC be faking the knee thing, much the way LA did in his 5th or 6th TDF victory? Is there any proof his knee is buggered? Ice packs and some laboured pedalling on a few small hills is something that would be easy to fake, no?

Hezz

Possible he is exaggerating for strategy but not likely. AC is usually straight up rather than conniving like Lance was. He has taken several spills on his bike during the first week. I'd say the chance is high that he is telling the truth. Still AC can often rebound better than many of the racers.

daveF

Cadel doesn't have a broken elbow this year, so it is more than a little difficult to compare being behind someone by 1:00 with a broken elbow to being behind by 1:41 to someone who is healthy & avoided all the crashing. Also, there is AS who he could not make up a 1:30 to last year when AC looked better than this year. Different race & much different scenario.

daveF

This isn't the Giro. Much stronger field.

curiouskid55

You can only beat who shows up. Doesn't diminish the victory. If the others want to f*** around at the TOC that only diminishes them.

daveF

No, it doesn't diminish the victory. But to compare dropping other riders at the Giro versus this TDF is probably not a very good comparison. Going to TOC versus Giro doesn't diminish a rider. But it will diminish AC's performance in this TDF. There is a reason that the double seldom works despite the quality of the rider.

Keith99

Saying he could not make up time to AS last year is like saying an American football team that was down by 2 points and drove over 50 yards to kick a winnning fieldgoal could not make up 6 points on the team they beat.

AC made up all the time he needed, and that was with a for him horrible final TT.

Since the age of Lance started there has not been a rider who went out and looked to dominate the Tour. The trend that Lance started has actually gotten more pronounced. Lance at least would take time on offer to make sure his lead was comfortable enough he could afford a bad day (as long as he kept cool about it). Today it seems riders are content to have enough that they should win if they do not have a bad day.

Keith99

And who was the last Rider to accomplish a double? Oh yea AC!

A Double involving the TDF was rather difficult for the 7 years where one of the best Tourists of his time rode for just one race a year. No one is doing that now. And the best Tourist of today is willing to try for the double.

daveF

No, that would be Pantani! Contador won the Giro & the Vuelta in one season against a much weaker field. And, he certainly doesn't look like the best "Tourist" in this field.

Keith99

No a double is any 2 of the 3 Grand Tours. At least you have shown yuo know the TDF existed before Lance.

daveF

And you should know that a Giro-Vuelta double is quite a bit different than a Giro-TDF double.

Keith99

Usually not always. Some years the Vuelta is the hardest race to win. (Look for the year when the runner up from the Vuelta won the tour by 10 minutes, hint he was also a Spaniard).

OrionKhan

Keith is correct. A the last rider to win a double was Contador. The Giro/Vuelta does count as a double. It is perceived as the "easiest" way to do it. A double involving the Giro/Tour is the most difficult. Any grand tour win is a great win. Simply because the Giro and Vuelta aren't as popular do not mean they are easier to win. An argument could be made that the Vuelta is on par with the other simply because it comes at the end of very grueling season. Riders have been fighting nagging injuries. Its always hot. And it the last chance to win a grand tour so there's nothing for anyone to save themselves for.

Winning two grand tours in a career makes for a great career. Winning two in a season is a whole different level. It is more difficult to win the Giro and Vuelta in one year versus the only the Tour. I have a lot of respect for Contador attempting the Giro/Tour double. It would have been easy for him to kick back and focus solely on the Tour for the rest of his career. It's a proven method to riches and fame after all. But to attempt to do what others don't think is possible or is not as popular takes stones. Especially when "failure" (not winning the TdF), despite already winning the Giro this year, will cause the casual fan and media to believe that he is not a great rider after all.

As for the "much weaker field" comment, other than Andy Schleck, the Giro field was just as tough as the Tour this year. There were many GC hopefuls looking for win where they have to be hoping for podium at the Tour. And if you've watched the Giro over the past few years, you would know that winning it over the course the organizers there put up is no small task. Last year's Giro was epic.

dahoss2002

Id like to see AC pull it off. The last 2 winners of the Giro have had miserable TDF results though. I realize its aples and oranges but Menchov 09 and Basso 2010. If anyone can do it it will be Contador .

SunSwingsLow

Saxo looks like garbage, i think AC has one teamate with him.

daveF

Yeah, I know the definition of a double. But, we were talking about AC's chances to win the Tour. I'm just making a point that a Giro-Tour double is much more difficult. As well as a Tour-Vuelta since there is less recovery time than a Giro-Vuelta.

And, yes I will stand by my statement that the Giro was a weaker field. Not just Andy, but Frank, Ivan, Cadel, & Sammy will make this Tour harder to win than the Giro.

Another 33 seconds lost to Frank and 13 to Andy, Ivan, & Cadel today.

daveF

Looks like that 1:41 gap is a bit bigger.

Hezz

Someone on this forum predicted that the Saxo team is broken from the Giro. And at this point it seems to be a prophetic statement. Though none of Saxo's riders can stay with AC on the biggest climbs. They never could. They typically can be better when they are fresh and stay with the top GC guys up until the last climb or so. I think that Saxo put all of their resources into the Giro because they weren't sure if AC would be able to ride in the TDF. He was so strong in the Giro that he was obviously in peak condition. I think there is a serious chance that he won't win this TDF. But even if he can just hold on he will likely be on the podium or top 5 due to attrition. This might be tough though. It is absolutely imperative to stay healthy during the first week of sprinting stages for a top GC guy. The injuries simply impair your ability to recover to the same extent. As the healthy riders.

I think in order to do the Giro/TDF double in modern times. (Has anyone ever done it with the modern scheduling ?). The racer must just barely win the Giro rather than do it convincingly. Also, to stay out of trouble and not get hurt in the sprint stages for 2 grand tours is nigh unto impossible. And I even doubt that a grand tour double win can even be done without doping products to aid in recovery. So if by chance AC is riding clean. There is no way that he will win this TDF.

OrionKhan

In the end it's not the team that is holding AC back, it his legs. Typically in a grand tour on selection stages it comes down to individual riders. A teammate can't make another ride better. At the top of the big mountain finishes it comes down to the strongest rider, one on one. One rider has to drop the others. Leopard-Trek is unique in that it has two excellent climbers who happen to be brothers. To win a grand tour a rider must be a great climber and very good ITT rider. Two things the team really can't help with. I'm not saying one can win without a team, but the concept that a lesser rider can win with a great team over a great rider with an average team is misguided. The "weak" team concept was brought up to no end last year with Astana and it didn't stop AC then. Two years ago his team was usurped by Lance and it didn't stop AC then. If AC can't ride with the Schleck's, Basso, or Evans, at the tops of big mountains, a strong team won't help him.

Hezz probably has the right of it. AC appears to have peaked in May during the Giro. To short a turnaround to get back in peak condition for the Tour. Its not the team doing him in, its his legs. He just hasn't shown that freakish explosion on the big climbs in the Tour so far. That's what's separated him from everyone else. He had it in the Giro. Basso, the Schlecks, or Evans wouldn't have mattered in that race. Those who watched the Giro were thinking AC should go for the Triple. That's how good he looked.

gpsblake

Today's race (Stage 12) showed how weak Contador's team is this year, and Contador suffered as a result. I don't think Contador has a shot this year because of it.

An example of how valuable having a team mate in the mountains is Voeckler's race today. His team mate pulled him up that mountain today.,

Keith99

Bolding mine.

You mean now that the gap between the races is bigger?

This year the Giro ran May 7- May 29
TDF runs July 2 - 24

In 1970 The Giro ran May 18-June 7
TDF June 26 - July 19.

So Merckx did it wirth tougher scheduling. I can check on Hinault, Indurain, Roche and Pantani, but I'd bet the schedules were similar. It may be that the Schedule was different for Anquetil and Coppi, but if so the additional difficulties with travel would make up for it.

SouthFLpix

It's always hard to do a Giro - Tour double, which is why very few men have ever done it. It's like winning a triple crown for horse racing. Sometimes so many years go by that people start saying it's impossible in the 'modern era'. It's not impossible, it's just very difficult to achieve.

On Versus today they mentioned that Contador is now having severe problems with his bottom (saddle sores)? If so, that is an incredibly painful condition, and very hard to come back from.

diphthong

stage 14 tomorrow will speak volumes on saxo bank as a team and contador's
chances to podium. if he loses more time *10 seconds or more*, both the knee
and he are done. if he finishes with the main gc group, he is likely biding his
time for the alps and giving the knee a chance to recover *as much as his knee
could on a stage like this*. if he attacks and gets time on the others...watch out.

Keith99

A rather select club. 5 of the seven are clear giants of the sport and/or 5 times TDF winners. And all 5 of those have multiple doubles (though for Anquetil the second is a Tour/ Vuelta double, now the rarest double). Roche and Pantani are pretty decent riders and dor that matter their doubles each involve a bit extra. Pantani anls picked up a KOM jersey and of course Roche is still only the second triple crown winner ever.

Trivia question, since roche who has come the closest to a triple crown?