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Old 07-12-11, 02:31 PM   #1
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Will GC contenders declare themselves in Stage 12?

I'm assuming tomorrow's stage 11 with it's short climbs and fairly flat finish is another one for the sprinters, but Thursday's stage 12 looks pretty steep. Will we finally see AC, AS or other favorites trying to attack each other? Will Contador hold back a bit to continue to nurse his sore knee? What should we expect?
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Old 07-12-11, 02:38 PM   #2
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Wouldn't be surprised. I've heard more than one commentator remark that the big fireworks will start on Luz Ardiden.
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Old 07-12-11, 02:40 PM   #3
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I really don't know. I expect there will be a few attacks to test out each other, but unless one of them isn't able to respond, I don't know that we'll see much separation.

However, if one (or more) can't respond to the attacks, look for some major time gaps.
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Old 07-12-11, 02:40 PM   #4
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Stage 12 is Bastille day... expect some French "Hail Marys".
But yeah, Luz Ardiden is the show.
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Old 07-12-11, 02:52 PM   #5
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At the least I expect Leopard to push the pace enough to seperate out the pretenders.

Without the knee thing I would have expected Contidor to look to attack. If Leopard believes the knee is weak they may attack.

Worst case for the viewers is the knee is tender and questionable enough that Contidor decides it is best not to test it on stage 12 and Leopard does not believe the knee is bad, that Contidor is trying to get them to attack and plans to counter.

Even for that I would still expect the pace pushing that will take many names out of the discussion.
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Old 07-12-11, 03:06 PM   #6
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I've got to wonder, if Contador isn't bluffing, why he would mention his bum knee to the media.
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Old 07-12-11, 03:16 PM   #7
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Vino liked to bluff Big chance he is, but we will never know until tomorrow. As for AS, who knows either.
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Old 07-12-11, 04:27 PM   #8
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if it's like last year it will be just riders marking each other waiting for the other guy to launch an attack.

Could get real boring since there really is only one GC contender.
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Old 07-12-11, 05:22 PM   #9
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I'm not saying there is going to be a full on attack, but I think we'll find out who is strong just with the fast tempo that will be set. Anyone that is not a contender for the podium will probably lose minutes in stage 12, and that will definitely provide us a clearer picture.
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Old 07-12-11, 06:27 PM   #10
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We might not know all the contenders, but I bet we'll identify a bunch of non-contenders.
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Old 07-12-11, 06:32 PM   #11
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I'm expecting some excitement. Hope it's GC, but if it's just the Frenchmen trying to win on Bastille Day, that works for me too .
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Old 07-12-11, 06:40 PM   #12
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Could get real boring since there really is only one GC contender.
I respectfully disagree.
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Old 07-12-11, 07:25 PM   #13
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I respectfully disagree.
Don't you read bikeforums.net?

Clearly only one GC contender, one wonders why the other riders even bother.
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Old 07-12-11, 07:40 PM   #14
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It's on like Donky Kong.
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Old 07-12-11, 08:36 PM   #15
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If they don't declare themselves, they cease to be GC contenders.
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Old 07-12-11, 10:28 PM   #16
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Don't you read bikeforums.net?

Clearly only one GC contender, one wonders why the other riders even bother.
*Confused* We're you being sarcastic?
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Old 07-12-11, 10:28 PM   #17
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We might not know all the contenders, but I bet we'll identify a bunch of non-contenders.
That's pretty much how I see it. I don't know if AC can shed AS or FS or CE on this stage but he might gain a few seconds on them. However, this stage will create a total shakedown and reorganization of the GC. I think AC will be cautious because of his knee. On the other hand, if his legs are good and he feels strong he will attack on the final mountain. But not hard enough to win unless he is in the position to do so. Cadel will as always ride cautiously. But he will try to hang with AC and AS. Some specialty climber who is low on the GC may take this stage.
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Old 07-12-11, 10:36 PM   #18
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I fully expect to see Cunego and the other specialty climbers hanging around too. Cunego is in great form right now. Sanchez isn't far back. Basso and Gesink will be looking to move up.

And if I were radioshack I would let Levi loose on the mountains to try for the KOM and a stage win or two, especially if Kloden looses time.
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Old 07-13-11, 05:30 AM   #19
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*Confused* We're you being sarcastic?

Yes
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Old 07-13-11, 11:37 AM   #20
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So it sounds like one prediction is that a few of the most elite riders will leave the rest of the pack behind, but they won't necessarily let each other out of their sight.
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Old 07-13-11, 12:24 PM   #21
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expecting the main flotilla of contenders *contador, a schleck, evans, et al...* to finish within 15 seconds of each other but also expecting one or
two of the current contenders *kloden? basso? vandevelde?* to lose a 30 seconds+ chunk of time. what's the forecast? if it's rain, sleet...it will probably be a safety first, attacks second or not at all kinda day.

Last edited by ooga-booga; 07-13-11 at 12:34 PM.
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Old 07-13-11, 12:28 PM   #22
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For the weather forecast:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/new...-outlook-1.asp

I've been writing stories containing forecasts for every stage. I did write this forecast a couple days ago, but it should be about right.
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Old 07-13-11, 03:13 PM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wxduff View Post
For the weather forecast:
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/new...-outlook-1.asp

I've been writing stories containing forecasts for every stage. I did write this forecast a couple days ago, but it should be about right.
Wow, you consider stage 12 to only have one major climb, what do you consider the other HC and the Cat 1 climb?
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Old 07-13-11, 06:27 PM   #24
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How many times did Andy attack? What about the trackstand AC and AS did last year. I found it anything but boring

R

Quote:
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if it's like last year it will be just riders marking each other waiting for the other guy to launch an attack.

Could get real boring since there really is only one GC contender.
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Old 07-13-11, 06:31 PM   #25
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BTW yes tomorrow will be a decisive stage. There will be changes dropped riders, and surpirses.

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