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Old 07-17-11, 11:10 AM   #1
Vicelord
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15 stages in, who are the favorites?

I'm really pulling for Cadel, but it looks like the Schleck brothers are ready to make a push. Do you think Voeckler can hold on?

Who are your favorites to win TdF this year?

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Old 07-17-11, 11:13 AM   #2
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Evans, Basso, the Schlecks, S. Sanchez, Contador, and Tommy Voeckler are all possibilities at the moment.
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Old 07-17-11, 11:23 AM   #3
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Based on what I've seen: Voeckler, Evans, Basso, Andy Schleck, and Contador in that order for me. I'm not convinced any of them are going to take much time out of Voeckler on 18 or 19. Going into the the last week, he's going to have the whole country supporting him. And he ain't one to just lay down and quit. The difference this year is, it seems he has the climbing legs to mark the big boys. At least so far.
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Old 07-17-11, 12:00 PM   #4
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Betting sites are great for any sporting event, to get an idea who is favored or not. If the odds get confusing, just search for a betting odds converter, and you can get them all converted to percentages. Currently Andy Schleck and Evans are equally favored, with Contador not far behind, and then in diminishing order: Voeckler, Frank Schleck, Basso, Sanchez.

My personal opinion is Evans is the clear favorite. He'll probably hold on the gradual ascent of the Galibier, and at worst lose less than a minute on Alpe d'Huez. Then definitively beat the Schlecks and Voeckler in the final time trial.

But there are so many unknowns... this Tour is getting so exciting. Basso and Contador might be in better form in the Alps. The top seven all have a decent shot at a podium I think!

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Old 07-17-11, 12:03 PM   #5
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I would love to see Voeckler win, more so than any other rider. I just don't see him hanging on on the Alpe d'huez. Hopefully he proves me wrong. Same with Cadel, my next favorite to win.

A. Shleck, Basso, Contador. Hopefully I'm wrong because I'd love to see 1. Voeckler or Evans 3. Don't care.
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Old 07-17-11, 12:06 PM   #6
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At equivalent odds I think you have to take Cadel Evans over Andy Schleck. There's no evidence Andy can put Cadel away on the mountains, and plenty of evidence that Cadel can put Andy away in the ITT.

Rationally I like Evans, A. Schleck, Voeckler, Sanchez, Basso, and Contador, in that order. Sanchez has gotten a huge advantage so far from not being considered a podium contender and is a great dark horse bet IMO. Contador can't be written off unless he DNFs.

Non-rationally I like Voeckler and Sanchez, because they are the most fun to watch, and because they are both riding their hearts out.
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Old 07-17-11, 12:19 PM   #7
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What about Sammy Sanchez! At least he makes honest attacks. If the others are going to just mark themselves, he might be able to slip off again.
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Old 07-17-11, 12:33 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dolomiti View Post
Betting sites are great for any sporting event, to get an idea who is favored or not. If the odds get confusing, just search for a betting odds converter, and you can get them all converted to percentages. Currently Andy Schleck and Evans are equally favored, with Contador not far behind, and then in diminishing order: Voeckler, Frank Schleck, Basso, Sanchez.

My personal opinion is Evans is the clear favorite. He'll probably hold on the gradual ascent of the Galibier, and at worst lose less than a minute on Alpe d'Huez. Then definitively beat the Schlecks and Voeckler in the final time trial.

But there are so many unknowns... this Tour is getting so exciting. Basso and Contador might be in better form in the Alps. The top seven all have a decent shot at a podium I think!

I was curious what the forum thought, not what the Las Vegas odds are, but thanks for your gambling lesson.

Some people just come across so pompous, it's ridiculous.
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Old 07-17-11, 12:43 PM   #9
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Voeckler (with his current lead) has a real chance as long as Contador and the Schlecks don't put in real hard attacks. There are so many contenders right now that everyone has been too chicken to take a chance so far. If the race does get aggressive, however, Voeckler is probably the first one to get dropped.

You would think that with two Schlecks and one of everyone else, that they would take more chances, but not so far.
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Old 07-17-11, 03:53 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Vicelord View Post
I was curious what the forum thought, not what the Las Vegas odds are, but thanks for your gambling lesson.

Some people just come across so pompous, it's ridiculous.
You asked "who are the favorites?", and I gave a tip on finding out the general consensus around the world on who the favorites are, not just for this competition but any other pro sporting event. Not just for you, but for anyone else who might be curious. I never said anything about Las Vegas. Nor did I suggest anybody to gamble. But it's always nice to be insulted when trying to help someone - thanks!
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Old 07-17-11, 04:14 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Dolomiti View Post
You asked "who are the favorites?", and I gave a tip on finding out the general consensus around the world on who the favorites are, not just for this competition but any other pro sporting event. Not just for you, but for anyone else who might be curious. I never said anything about Las Vegas. Nor did I suggest anybody to gamble. But it's always nice to be insulted when trying to help someone - thanks!
I'm perfectly aware of how to get real odds. Not interested in bookie odds. Interested in what people who watch the sport think.

sheesh. If I wanted a lesson on how to get sports odds I'd have called vegas.

This is over.
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Old 07-18-11, 11:02 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by johnny99 View Post
Voeckler (with his current lead) has a real chance as long as Contador and the Schlecks don't put in real hard attacks. There are so many contenders right now that everyone has been too chicken to take a chance so far. If the race does get aggressive, however, Voeckler is probably the first one to get dropped.

You would think that with two Schlecks and one of everyone else, that they would take more chances, but not so far.
I agree. If I were with friends and going for bragging rights who I'd pick would depend on how my friends look at hitting one out of 2. I think the odds are excellent that one of Voekler and AC will win, and that the other will not podium, all depending on hte attack pattern which may well depend on AC.
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