Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Miami, FL
Bikes: 2007 Giant Cypress DX, Windsor Tourist 2011
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Contador is only a slightly better time trialist then Cadel Evans, so he needs to make up right around 2 minutes if he expects to win. Frank and Andy Schleck I think will lose about 1.30 to Contador / Evans. What this means is that the Schlecks need to attack in the mountains, as does Contador.
Right now Evans is in the best position to win the TDF. All he has to do is defend against Contador, which is the only GC threat who might be able to out TT him, and he has about a 2 minute buffer to play with.
Voeckler is a dark horse. He has a nice buffer on Evans, but he is not normally a good time trialist. I would say he needs to not lose any time to Evans and at the same time ride the time trial of his life in order to win. That's possible, but it's asking a lot.
I actually think the Alps are going to shake things up though. Someone is going to get dropped. I can't see everyone riding in a little group and hoping for the best in the time trial.