*spoiler* Cadel Evans and Andy Schleck- The story behind the time difference
 

It seems likely that Cadel and Andy will finish first and second in some order. Schleck holds a 57 second advantage, and here is a quick reminder of how he got it.

Stage 1 (Uphill finish): The crashes begin. Evans is well towards the front and comes in second place. Schleck is caught behind a crash, but the 3km rule is applied and Schleck finishes 3 seconds behind Evans.

Stage 2 (TTT): BMC rides to a surprising second place to tie Leopard Trek. Schleck remains 3 seconds behind Evans.

Stage 3 (Flat): Sprint stage. Both guys finish safely and Schleck remains 3 seconds behind Evans.

Stage 4 (Uphill finish): Cadel wins in a sprint against Contador and gains 8 seconds on Schleck, who is now 11 seconds behind Evans.

Stages 5-11 (Sprints and breakaways): Both guys stay safe during some hectic stages. Schleck remains 11 seconds behind Evans.

Stage 12 (Mountain finish): The first mountain finish. The Schlecks trade attacks and Frank gets one to stick. Evans and Basso chase, dropping Contador. Andy finishes with Evans and Basso. Schleck remains 11 seconds behind Evans.

Stage 13 (Flat finish after a climb): Evans and Schleck finish together and Schleck remains 11 seconds behind Evans.

Stage 14 (Mountain finish): Andy and Frank trade “attacks” on the Plateau de Beille but fail to drop Contador or Evans. Andy puts in a sprint towards the end and gains 2 seconds on Evans. Schleck is now 9 seconds behind Evans

Stage 15 (Flat): Sprint stage. Both guys stay safe and Schleck remains 9 seconds behind Evans.

Stage 16 (After a Cat 2 descent): Contador attacks on the wet downhill. Evans follows, but Schleck cannot. Evans gains 1:09 on Schleck to increase his lead to 1:18.

Stage 17 (After a Cat 2 descent): Sanchez and Contador attack on the descent. Evans and Schleck give chase in a group that catches the Spaniards just before the finish line. Schleck remains 1:18 behind Evans.

Stage 18 (Mountain finish): Schleck makes his brave attack on the Col d'Izoard and holds it until the finish on Galibier. Voeckler refuses to chase and Contador cracks, forcing Evans to do almost all of the riding to reduce Schleck’s gap. Evans loses 2:15 to Schleck on the stage. Schleck now leads Evans by 57 seconds.

Stage 19 (Mountain finish): Voeckler finally cracks, putting Andy in yellow prior to the final time trial. Schleck cannot put more time into Evans and remains ahead by 57 seconds.

That was great. So Andy lost the Tour on Stage 16 because he doesn't descend well on wet roads. Otherwise he'd be up by over 2 minutes and could realistically have held that over the 41km ITT.

Short version: Cadel put a minute into Andy on a tricky descent, then Andy put 2 minutes into Cadel with an ultra long-distance mountain attack.

And remember...Andy didn't wait for Cadel when Cadel had his mechanical! :rolleyes:

Pretty much, but this could be the closest tour ever and Stages 4 and 14 (less likely, but possible) could end up making the difference.

Going back and looking at it, the TTT was a big surprise at the time and it could be huge in the end. I'm not a big fan of TTTs, so I'm glad it won't make the difference between 1st and 2nd.

Speaking of mechanicals, was there any reporting on what was wrong with Cadel's bike?

This is the same when lemond won the tour years ago. the difference was even longer and the other guy actually was able to TT too.

Hope Cadel wins, he deserves it since years ago.

Cadel should take the 57 secs back and make at least 15 secs more in the worse case scenario. In the best case scenario he should take the 57 secs back and make at least 2 more minutes.

Contador is dead but since this thing is just surprises he will try to get a podium tomorrow too. Remember that contador have won to cancellara so who knows.

TV? He should do better than FS, podium? who knows.

If they were even on time, I doubt Evans would have let him go off the front during stage 18. Then again, I still can't figure out why he let the gap swell to 4min+ before taking up the chase in earnest.

Thanks for putting spoiler in the title. Now I know there is a time difference! Jerk.

Answering my own question, the answer is apparently "it seemed strange."

I saw a comment where he was hinting at some kind of friction, couldn't put his finger on it (ie, the wheel appeared to rotate freely) but then gave up and switched bikes. Not a good time for mechanicals but he pretty much covered it by the end of the day.

Yeah, I've had that kind of "mechanical" before myself, and that's exactly what I thought when I saw it. "I can't be this slow. It must be the bike."

Am I the only one who doesn't want to see Cadel win? I don't have anything against the guy, but he hasn't done anything particularly exciting the whole tour. His best day, stage 4's little sprint aside, was stage 18 when his "accomplishment" was to limit the time Schleck put on him.

You think maybe he got a Gruber bike? It would be easier to sneak one on to the follow vehicle than the sign in.



He won a stage, he might win the ITT, he played a defensive game - he deserves to win. He's not Mr. Personality so I doubt there's a book deal or speaking tour in his future, but he earned this.

D'OH! He already wrote a book - it appears no one bought it though.
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/...500_AA300_.jpg
Hmmm, logo-less bike... ???

I like the fact that 4-5 guys were still in it going into the final weekend.

+1000 How is it that Versus didn't go apoplectic over THAT today?? (For the record, I don't think they should have gone apoplectic today or a year ago. It just points out Phil, Paul, and Bob's inconsistencies.)

I guess we were watching two different versions of today's stage. Cadell clearly cracked before the so called mechanical. Andy, on the other hand, had a chain issue last year while attacking. Apples and oranges.

Dont get me wrong, I would be happy with cadell winning... But he was suffering today when he thought something felt "strange"... And he was suffering after the bike change.

No, I was talking about Cadel Evans. I'm not sure there was a rider named Cadell IN the Tour de France. But if you saw him crack, there must have been.

I should try that trick next time I get dropped. "Guys, wait! There's a problem with my bike!"

Not sure I understand why you would even bother with this response. Just to clear things up, specially for you, I was talking about Cadel Evans. Next time I promise I will double check the spelling of his name.

Yeah, he won a stage...gaining 8 seconds. If he takes a minute on the time trial, that will be impressive. Otherwise his big accomplishment (and biggest time gain) will have been following Contador down a mountain.

Frank Schleck played a really good defensive game too. The only problem is that he had no offense. I was actually scratching my head this morning trying to figure out how he was so well placed.

:) I didn't put that there. Seems like an overreaction by the mods and I don't know what the hell anybody would be doing here if he didn't want to be spoiled anyway.

In one report Cadel's mechanical was thought to be either a spoke, dropout, or hub problem. Something that if not right will deflect under load, but spin OK when you are not on the bike.

I understand how frustrating it can be to even get a hint of how things go before you see it, but I tend to avoid forums, and any website that can give any hint of results before I watch it on TV. Best to play it safe in my view.

How about "Guys, I'm afraid of going too fast down the hills. Can you please slow down so I can keep up?"