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Old 10-20-11, 03:52 PM   #1
Treefox
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My Gloomy WorldTour License Predictions

Continuing:
Ag2R La Mondiale
Astana
BMC Racing
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Lampre-ISD
Liquigas-Cannondale
Rabobank
RadioShack-Nissan (Leopard)
Sky
Vacansoleil-DCM

'Paperwork problems'
Garmin-Cervelo Makes me quite concerned... Anyone know more?
Movistar not sure what the story is on this one... anyone know more?

Renewal Applicants:
Katusha yes
Omega Pharma-Quick Step yes
Saxo Bank-SunGard if Contador doesn't get banned

Applicants:
1T4I (Skil-Shimano) yes, if they come up with the sponsorship they claim to have in the bag
Europcar yes; welcome back, despite your ugly kit
Green Edge yes
Lotto-Ridley I'm hearing concerned grumblings
FDJ What? You guys again? Lucky the competition is thin...

---

So with 18 places, there are several scenarios where there could be fewer than 18 teams there to take them. Which actually could mean Saxo Bank gets by even without Contador's points. And with Geox probably gone, there could be some Pro Continental teams that could pick up more points on the cheap and maybe the UCI would let them in with late applications (and maybe reduced requirements??).

So then who comes in next? Pro Continental applications include (my picks for possible upgrade-by-fiat in bold): Accent Jobs, Androni Giocattoli, Bertagne-Schuller, Caja Rural, Cofidis le credit en ligne, Conago-CSF Inox, Farnese Vini, Landbouwkrediet, Saur-Sojasun, Spidertech-C10, NetApp, Topsport Vlaanderen-Mercator and American squads Team Type 1-Sanofi and UnitedHealthcare.

But imagine any one of those teams picking up Cobo on the cheap from the ashes of Geox - they could easily vault themselves above the likes of a sans-Contador Saxo Bank in the rankings. If they were absolved of the UCI's cash-in-hand requirements for WorldTour teams, I imagine they'd jump at the chance.

For reference, UCI press release

But then what do I know? Thoughts?
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Old 10-20-11, 11:28 PM   #2
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Re: Garmin 10/5/11 -
Quote:
U.S.-registered Garmin-Cervelo was not listed. A team representative said there was no significant problem with its registration, just “some technical issues regarding the 2012 team name.” The representative said the issues were resolved later Wednesday.
Source
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Old 10-25-11, 02:14 PM   #3
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Ok; revisions, based on the UCI's new 2012 evaluation of sporting criteria:

In:
Astana Pro Team
BMC Racing Team
Garmin – Cervélo (anyone else hearing hints that all is not well?)
GreenEdge Cycling Team
Katusha Team
Lampre - ISD (so long as that doping investigation doesn't wipe out every rider over the age of 24)
Liquigas – Cannondale
Lotto Cycling Project (again, is all not as well as it seems at Lotto?)
Movistar Team
Omega Pharma – Quick-Step Cycling Team
Rabobank
RadioShack – Nissan
Saxo Bank Sungard (What would the UCI do if Contador's points got wiped out before the season started?)
Sky Procycling
Vacansoleil – DCM Pro Cycling Team

So, the maybes:
16. AG2R La Mondiale
17. Geox – TMC
18. FDJ
19. Euskaltel – Euskadi
20. Team Europcar

Geox seems to have a "rounded to zero" chance of remaining in the mix. Euskaltel isn't up for renewal. They're certainly facing some pretty big storm clouds, but still seem to have sponsorship through next season - even if the sponsor is planning on leaving, I can't imagine such a long-running sponsor breaking their contract early on the way out. So I'll count them in. AG2R isn't up for renewal either. Can't say I follow them closely, but I haven't heard anything to suggest they're in trouble in any manner beyond boredom and lack of results.

So that leaves the last place a competition between Europcar and FDJ. I feel that despite the lower ranking for Europcar, Voeckler and his tongue at the TDF attracted such a lot of attention, so I'd cautiously put my money there. What have FDJ ever done for anyone? However, if any other teams meet their doom, FDJ gets the ticket too (and I'm probably in the oddball camp, but excepting translucency issues, I like the FDJ kit).

Big surprises: The Team Formerly Known as Skil-Shimano (Now renamed with the last couple of characters from someone's car license plate) is nowhere to be seen. (but Geox is... even though they didn't come up with the bank guarantees??!!) I think that's a real pity and I definitely didn't see it coming.

Last edited by Treefox; 10-25-11 at 02:33 PM.
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Old 10-26-11, 06:02 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Treefox View Post
Garmin – Cervélo (anyone else hearing hints that all is not well?)
Told ya.

Fortunately they've got a sugar daddy in Doug Ellis - who can apparently just cough up more cash. These teams with wealthy independent backers like BMC, Katusha, and Quickstep certainly put themselves in an advantageous position relative to folks like Geox. But if problematic if the sport is dependent on the whimsy of rich guys dallying in having their own cycling teams.

Though as a name, 'BigMat' would be horrible. Could you get excited about a Big Mat? A lucky miss?
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Old 10-26-11, 08:21 AM   #5
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Though as a name, 'BigMat' would be horrible. Could you get excited about a Big Mat? A lucky miss?
They've done it before:

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Old 10-26-11, 02:06 PM   #6
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Quote:
Garmin – Cervélo (anyone else hearing hints that all is not well?)
Treefox, what are you bugging out about man?

Quote:
Originally Posted by The article
The loss of French sponsorship hasn’t had an effect on the team’s ambitions in the transfer market, according to Vaughters
What does it matter that Garmin lost a sponsor that it never had in the first place? They are not in trouble. Garmin always has a different secondary sponsor every year since they joined with Slipstream. Ie. Garmin-Slipstream and Garmin-Transitions prior to Garmin-Cervelo
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Old 11-01-11, 02:23 PM   #7
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If I had money coming out of my ears, I would sponsor a team just to be able to sit in the front seat of one of the caravan cars.
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Old 11-02-11, 04:33 PM   #8
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1t4i got stuck at Pro Continental: http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/eigh...renewed-by-uci

Maybe they should go with fewer than 20 teams. I'm not sure that would be a bad thing.
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Old 11-03-11, 09:10 AM   #9
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I don't think it's such a bad thing that 1t4i will spend another season as Pro Continental. The team is going through some changes and they can't even reveal the sponsor yet- IMO it wouldn't be good for cycling if they replaced Euskaltel or AG2R. Also biggest names in 1t4i are Kittel and Dagenkolb- both still very young- maybe it will be better for them too.
(Though for Euskaltel it shouldn't be the end of the world to step down to pro conti as well- no cobbles, not having to travel to stupid races like Beijing with your strongest riders- and they'd probably get Tour and Vuelta invites plus get to ride Spanish stage races... They're the coolest team in the sport and I don't really want to see less of them but if it comes to this, it will have it's advantages. I just hope they won't dissappear after 2012- the rumours they're in serious trouble did come up in the past and they were always false but if Samuel Sanchez himself confirms them, I'm a bit worried.)

It's stupid that Vacansoleil have to explain themselves because of Ricco and Mosquera (if it's the real reason). It's like telling Riis he has to explain keeping Contador. I understand signing Ricco was always risky but not much different to for example Katusha hiring Di Luca, or many other similar cases. With Mosquera I don't know what they could have done differently.
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Old 11-12-11, 06:46 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Treefox View Post
Continuing:
Ag2R La Mondiale
Astana
BMC Racing
Euskaltel-Euskadi
Lampre-ISD
Liquigas-Cannondale
Rabobank
RadioShack-Nissan (Leopard)
Sky
Vacansoleil-DCM

'Paperwork problems'
Garmin-Cervelo Makes me quite concerned... Anyone know more?
Movistar not sure what the story is on this one... anyone know more?

Renewal Applicants:
Katusha yes
Omega Pharma-Quick Step yes
Saxo Bank-SunGard if Contador doesn't get banned

Applicants:
1T4I (Skil-Shimano) yes, if they come up with the sponsorship they claim to have in the bag
Europcar yes; welcome back, despite your ugly kit
Green Edge yes
Lotto-Ridley I'm hearing concerned grumblings
FDJ What? You guys again? Lucky the competition is thin...

---

So with 18 places, there are several scenarios where there could be fewer than 18 teams there to take them. Which actually could mean Saxo Bank gets by even without Contador's points. And with Geox probably gone, there could be some Pro Continental teams that could pick up more points on the cheap and maybe the UCI would let them in with late applications (and maybe reduced requirements??).

So then who comes in next? Pro Continental applications include (my picks for possible upgrade-by-fiat in bold): Accent Jobs, Androni Giocattoli, Bertagne-Schuller, Caja Rural, Cofidis le credit en ligne, Conago-CSF Inox, Farnese Vini, Landbouwkrediet, Saur-Sojasun, Spidertech-C10, NetApp, Topsport Vlaanderen-Mercator and American squads Team Type 1-Sanofi and UnitedHealthcare.

But imagine any one of those teams picking up Cobo on the cheap from the ashes of Geox - they could easily vault themselves above the likes of a sans-Contador Saxo Bank in the rankings. If they were absolved of the UCI's cash-in-hand requirements for WorldTour teams, I imagine they'd jump at the chance.

For reference, UCI press release

But then what do I know? Thoughts?
It was a pretty good prediction.
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