seanthebear

So its now official....the Eurosport boys annointed Wiggo TDF favorite once that 2nd split came up last night. Is it really possible? Will this finally be his year? No doubt there's still a lot of doubters out there but yeah, why not? The one big reservation as we know is that he rides just too conservatively and lacks attacking punch on the big hill climbs. But countering that is that Sky as a whole is turning into a real strong unit. Just hope he doesn't crash out first week...

18hockey

Jens Voight thinks he is peaking to early. Honestly it reminds me of Mayo the year he just killed everyone in the Dauphine, you can only stay out on the razors edge for so long.

On a funny note when Jens tweeted that he thought he peaked too early, Wiggins wife responded saying "Brad is not peaking!"

Bacciagalupe

Yeah, I'm still skeptical -- especially if he burned too brightly at the Dauphine. My money will be on Evans.

Just out of curiosity, how accurate are the Eurosport pre-Tour picks?

ultraman6970

The guy is not a natural climber, is like asking basso to try to punch contador in the face 3 times in a row in the galibier. That aint going to happen. I really don't now how he is climbing and tomorrow will be the great test, sure he is climbing more than before, evans for me is question mark because there is a big chance that he is climbing a lot more after a saw him using less gears in the TT, his TT always were 55x11 or 12 at 75 rpm (just making up), today he was moving the legs more than ever in a TT, was interesting, dunno if anybody noticed that.

1st wiggo, second Cadel.

Gonna wake up looking and the darn live ticker to know what is going on.

seanthebear

It's funny innit how everyone keeps saying, "oh he's peaking too early"....maybe he's just really, really good this year. Note he's only riding four events pre-TDF. He's won two out of three and "only" finished third in the Algarve because Porte was riding for the overall. The rest of the time has been spent training in the mountains. I think Sky's too smart to have somehow let him peak too early; more a case of sans Contador and with Schleck having the season from hell, there's just no one else hit good form yet (except for Ryder of course).

chasm54

I don't think Wiggo is necessarily peaking too early. He looks very good - remarkable performance in the TT yesterday - and of course Evans will have left something to work on, but what if Wiggo has, too? I suspect that the Sky trainers have his physiology pretty well worked out, now, and that there's a bit more to come. Watch him climb, today. I'll bet he looks extremely comfortable.

ultraman6970

Totally see the sky team literally flying at the front tomorrow.

Bacciagalupe

Yes, that's possible. However, we've also seen people push themselves too hard early in the season, especially at the Dauphine, and have it hurt their Tour performance.


What are they going to do, tell him now that he doesn't have to win the Dauphine?

I'm sure his schedule was intelligently set, but it ultimately depends on how hard he pushes himself in these events.

fly:yes/land:no

this tour is shaping up a lot like the 08 tour imho. a race without contador and schleck on bad form makes a huge difference in how the climbing stages could unfold. barring a huge recovery from andy, i suspect that there will be lots of elite "pack finishes" on the mountain stages, with none of the favorites willing to risk blowing up early in the climb. this in combination with the significant amount of time trialing does seem to make it a favorable tour for wiggins (and probably boring for viewers).

i know it is early, and there is tons of luck involved between here and paris, but i think wiggins is the favorite as well. granted, eurosport drools over brits as much as versus drooled over americans, but the odds makers are in agreement, with almost every betting site having wiggins ahead of evans and a few at even odds.

daveF

So far, he has not looked to stressed in any race he's done this year. Including the time trial yesterday. I don't think he has dug very deep. There were a lot of others, including Evans, who looked like they dug much deeper in the time trial.

seanthebear

Just finished watching Sky on the queen stage....one word springs to mind; juggernaut. They dominated that stage and now sit 1st, 2nd and 4th on GC. It's kinda like HTC used to be on sprint stages....going so fast up the hills that not only can no one attack, the reverse happens and strong riders are shelled off the back. Great win by the Colombian mind.

chasm54

Another really dominant display from Sky today, Wiggo looked to be cruising and Eddie B-H was immense on the climb. I'm increasingly persuaded that Wiggins has not peaked too early. The only time he has looked distressed this year was when he had to dig deep in the TT to win Paris-Nice. He, Froome and Rogers looked ominously strong today. What with Cavendish, Stannard, Eisel, Flecha, Uran, this is going to look like a hell of a squad for the tour.

chasm54

Wiggo cruises home. Another big performance from EBH, who looks like a GC contender of the future, to me, and he wasn't even one of the four Sky riders in the top ten.

Evans coming into form. He'll improve before the Tour, no doubt, but as things stand I think Wiggins' superiority in the TTs looks like being decisive.

ultraman6970

Wonder what JB will do I would go with Jens because at least he will put everything he has to try to win the race, not like others he has in the team.

reef58

Before the Wiggins fans get too excited keep in mind there is a difference between a one week and a three week race. I remember back in 2006 and 2007 the bandwagon was Valverde. This year Wiggins. Let's see if he can survive the race much less win it.

He may be assisted due the the lack of Contador, and seemingly lack of Andy. If all of the climbs are done at tempo vs hard accelerations that may benefit Wiggins.

I would not put Wiggins as the favorite, but rather Evans as much as it pains me to say.

reef58

Yea I agree it make no sense to go with the prior tour winner and two time runner up. That would be stupid.

daveF

It would be stupid except for the amount of time trialing in this year's tour. Andy will be fortunate to podium unless all the good time trialists have abandoned due to crashes. Bruyneel thinks they will have to do something extremely extraordinary to win, probably along the lines of what it would have taken for Discovery to win in 06 post Lance.

daveF

I think your comparison is not really valid. Valverde finally put together a good grand tour in 2006 at the Vuelta & still has never done that at the TDF. Wiggins has been 4th in 2009 in the TDF & 3rd in the Vuelta last year after coming off of a broken collarbone. He rode consistently the same in both of those grand tours. And, moving on to another comparison, who was the last one to win both the Paris-Nice & Dauphine in the same year? And, what was the last team to place riders 1st and 2nd at the Dauphine?

ultraman6970

And now Horner is out of the TdF... Looks like JB used the people that told the results in pac-man's fight a couple of days ago to name his team.

Well that's life, personally after we saw from Horner in the ToC he deserved a chance.

Shadco 

As much as I would like to see Cuddles repeat I wonder what he will have as a supporting cast?

Maybe he can hitch a ride with Leaky Gas as they push Sagan for the Green.

Bacciagalupe

As long as we're doing pop quizzes... When was the last time the winner of that year's Dauphiné won the TdF? (2003, Armstrong, and it's probable that the effort impacted his TdF performance that year). Before that? Indurain '95; he also won Dauphiné in 96, but lost the Tour that year.

The winners of the Dauphiné largely read like a roster of excellent cyclists who haven't won the TdF: Leipheimer, Moreau, Valverde, Hamilton, Vino, Mottet...

Of course that doesn't guarantee any results, but it is the reason why there's so much "zomg he's peaking too early" talk.

Bacciagalupe

I'm sure that backing a 40 year old high-quality domestique, who isn't a top climber, whose best overall at a Grand Tour was 9th place at the Tour de France in 1998, is the smart move.

Yeah, you're not biased even the tiniest bit against the Schlecks.

reef58

There are time trials in the tour every year including 2009 and 2010. More this year I agree. I also agree things are not looking good for Andy this year. He usually looks poor in the race before the tour, but this year might be a bit much. That being said if Andy is on good form he can gather enough time in the mountains to cover losses in the TT. I doubt it this year, but maybe he will ride himself in form. If Frank will give up podium dreams and set tempo to crack riders and then have Andy attack he will do okay. I think this year's tour is open sort of like 2007. The winner may come out of nowhere. I doubt Wiggins will win. If all of the climbs are ridden at tempo and accelerations only coming in the last 1 or 2 km then he will do pretty well. If Frank and Andy are in form and decide to split the race up I would not be surprised to see Wiggins lose minutes on a single stage. I hope for the sake of an exciting race Frank and Andy are in good form.

ultraman6970

Hahaha I was just being sarcastic about jens man... sure you saw the roster... if any of the schelps is not ready for the mountain stages RS wont get even a participation certificate this year.

If you see the roster the most consistent rider they have seriously is Jens. He is a domestique and is old but the rest of the team or are just old or are really inconstant as riders. I know is a terrible bad idea but at least you know the man will try to do its best every single day of the race. The idea is so stupid that after looking all the guys that are in the roster the only one that can be highlighted for something is him.

I smell comeback #3 to save the day for JB.

Shadco 

So if the marshals take the peleton under control and hold them back on the descents and throw out the ITT's RS is looking good otherwise not so much.

Andy looks like crap and Frank really set the world on fire on stage 2 of the tds.

JB is in for a rough time this year. The Schlecks really? Is RS going to knock dead with those little Schlecklets (short bursts of acceleration followed quickly by Andy looking back to see the devastation or looking down to see if is chain is still on)?