dstrong 

chap01

Who can be in the top 8 in this stage?

I would say:

1. Cavendish
2. Sagan
3. Greipel
4. Goss
5. Kittel
6. Renshaw
7. Petacchi
8. Farrar

Am I too lost????

dstrong 

We'll find out today whether Cav can retain his dominance. He's always been pretty adept at getting onto other trains when his falls apart. It should be exciting.

crazyarm07

Related question for today: What is Cav's train going to look like? He only really had Boasson Hagen with him at the sprint point - might be an indicator that he doesn't get much support with Sky looking after Wiggins. Could be interesting to see how successful Cav can be in that situation.

seanthebear

Bernie Eisel is Cavs man so its Bernie and EBH. The last 30 kms we'll see the whole Sky team push to the front anyway, they've already said its in both Cav and Wiggos interests to be on the front of the peloton. The difference is that in the final 5 kms when the argy bargy starts Sky won't keep it riders up there where the elbows are flying, they'll want to protect Wiggo. So Bernie's job is to get Cav up near the front, then Cav will just have to jump trains. My guess is he'll shadow Greenedge's train and then just jump onto whatever wheel presents itself in the last 200 to 300 meters. He's going to be really fired up for this because he's had a gutsful of questions based around the premise of "so how does it feel to be Wiggo's *****".

diphthong

looks like there is a relatively sharp right, then a gentle left just before the finish line. could be big-time trouble...hoping it doesn't affect the long-term prospects of any of the gc contenders.

chasm54

I was interested to see that Cavendish took some trouble to get points in the intermediate sprint yesterday, without either going all-out or asking teammates to expend any energy - only EBH was anywhere near him, and he more or less surfed his way towards the front. Today certainly looks like one for the sprinters, I think he'll be looking to win it with the help of Eisel, EBH and possibly Porte and Sioutsou too. That still leaves plenty of manpower to look after Wiggo, who will want to finish high up in the bunch anyway.

DXchulo

Cav will probably win, but I'm pulling for Greipel.

chasm54

Same routine as yesterday in the intermediate sprint. Cav using the other teams (Renshaw, ironically) to surf up to the front, then doing just enough to edge out Sagan but not really going full gas. No other Sky rider in the picture. I think we can see where this is going, he's going to try to ride smart and pick up enough points to keep himself in contention without using up too much of the team's resources.

chasm54

CAVENDISH! In a consummate exhibition of how to win a sprint. No train, surfed his way onto the wheel of the second-fastest man in the field and rode round him. Absolutely superb.

Kupkake

what a sprint!

kleinboogie

Awesome sprint. I was hoping this year would be good and it is. Cav just showed why he wins. Tactics, timing and speed. Greipel just missed it. Sagan has become one of my favorite riders but he just got owned by the veterans. He'll be back. Cheers.

DXchulo

Train or no train and 4 kilos lighter, Cav is still the fastest. That was an impressive ride. He seemed to be too far back between 2-1km to go, but all of the sudden there he was on Greipel's wheel. It reminded me of Robbie McEwen.

reef58

Anyone that finished that stage with the same time is a man.

chasm54

All 146 of them...

Yes, it was quick. Some strong riders shelled otb before they even got to the sharp end.

thenomad

Sweet finish. Must account for experience when choosing. Sagan looked out fo his league. He may just be a spectator for all the nice wins Greipel and Cav will have. Maybe his tactic is to let Cavendish crash in spectacular fashion and be the first over the line?

seanthebear

As predicted Cav slotted into the Greenedge train nicely. Gossy must be well pissed to have let him take Impey's wheel.

Note how coy Cav is in the post-race interviews. He's deliberately playing down his chances so as to relieve the pressure on himself but will he f*ck be happy with one stage win. None of the Eurosport commentators picked him to win which is pretty disgraceful for professional pundits.

At the very least he should take 2 other stages incl. Paris. A coupla second and thirds and consistently picking up points in the intermediates he's still a very good bet for green with Sagan his main rival.

Beaker

Super impressive win from Cavendish. Powerful, and smart.

JungleCat

Question, why did Cav go so far wide of Greipel? Is there extra drag on the outsides of the slipstream or something?

Mithrandir

That should probably shut the detractors up who say that Cav can only win with his own personalized leadout train.

Mithrandir

Just making it to the TdF in the first place is rather manly, imo.

seanthebear

Once he moves out of his slipstream on a wide finish like that he'll just naturally go wide; don't think there's a technical reason. Goss had even more extreme lateral movement trying to get round the two of them. he should have just tried to go inside of Gripes because there's no way he could have gone wider than Cav and still made up the ground that close to the finish.

JungleCat

Interesting, thanks. One more, if you don't mind - I noticed he and Sagan are extremely smooth when going for it all - I'd violently be thrashing around and prob still only hit 20mph! Is there any aerodynamic advantage for their smooth flow?

chasm54

Probably, but much more important is their ability to deliver the power smoothly and at a high cadence. If we had access to the data on their pedal stroke, we'd probably see that they exerted useful pressure on the pedals than we do through a greater portion of the arc.