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Old 07-15-12, 07:45 PM   #1
bikerjp
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Why Not Put TeJay in a Break?

Watching today's stage I started to wonder why BMC doesn't send TeJay into a break. I realize others might not be too motived to join a break with someone high on GC as that would just drive the peleton to chase. But if he were to bridge to a break several minutes out and maybe on a mountain stage they might hold on to hopes of a win and keep working. In any case, I was thinking such a move would really force Sky to chase hard to catch as TeJay could gain too much time. Once they are caught (if caught) Sky might be a bit tired and then Cadel and several of his team could take off and drive for time and maybe even a stage win. They tried something similar but only sent TeJay up a bit and then Cadel bridged. I'm thinking put him five minutes up the road and really force Sky to chase and maybe leave them unable to respond to the follow up attack. Wonder how today's stage would have unfolded if he had been up the road in the break.
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Old 07-15-12, 08:15 PM   #2
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IMO is because they are still racing for evans, BMC won't send the kid off the group because they are still racing for evans and because he is the only one that can help in the mountains

I thought the same the day tejay went solo and evans tried to bridge, but no... they have a plan and they are sticking to it. I would love to have evans to win the tour but he is not going to win, based on that I would have used plan B...tejay... hoping that he could take a lot of minutes back... and as you say a plan C... forcing sky to chase but on the other hand doubt they will leave him go anyways, they know what they are doing pretty well.

Still two mountain stages to go... and pretty much BMC doesnt lose anything sending the kid up in a group, and probably they will... but again i dont see cadel been able to perform a "Vinokurov" or a "hinault", I believe 2 stages ago he looked going grabbed with this buggers behind Wiggo, dont see anything like that to happen.

Nibali has no team and probably he could do something weird but who knows, IMO he will take care of his podium place.

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Old 07-15-12, 08:21 PM   #3
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Actually, you can put TeJay up in a break but still be racing for Cadel. The idea being to wear down Sky so Cadel can then attack. As it is, Sky is too strong and they need to be pressured. Of course, if it fails, so to speak, and TeJay ended up moving in front of Cadel that wouldn't be good. Would certainly confuse Sky though as they would then need to watch them both.
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Old 07-15-12, 08:45 PM   #4
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others might not be too motived to join a break with someone high on GC
Agreed. Tejay is #7 in GC. I don't seen the peloton letting #7 get away in a break in the last half of the tour. If he's strong enough to ride away solo with the whole peloton chasing him, then let's see it. Or maybe only Liquigas-Cannondale, Lotto-Belisol, Radioshack-Nissan, Astana, Europcar, and FDJ-Bigmat would be motivated to chase him down.
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Old 07-15-12, 09:06 PM   #5
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well, you don't just put someone in a break. the break has to be "let" go. frequently, the peloton does not like the composition of the initial break, so it is chased down, and another group counters, effectively re-rolling the dice, and the peloton decides if that breakaway is acceptable. i remember a few years ago in the giro, the break was just not agreeing with any of the teams, so the first hour of the race covered over 35 miles. if tejay attempts to get in the early break, he will immediately be chased down by a combination of radio-shack, lotto, astana, europcar, unless those teams are also represented with their gc guys. the only way sky or liquigas chases is if the gap gets big enough to threaten their rider, and the other teams will already be chasing at that point. plus, even if the break did get away, when tejay gets caught, he will likely be dropped, and lose the white jersey.

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Old 07-15-12, 09:20 PM   #6
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^Lol.

I realize they wouldn't let such a break form. However, once formed they might let TeJay (or another such rider) to try and bridge. They let him go a few stages back and didn't even react when Cadel went up to him. They just hammered out the tempo and brought them back. Might feel the same if he were to go around midway into a stage. I realize it's a long shot but it seems BMC is running out of time so why not try something different. Of course, might be strong enough to bride to a break.
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Old 07-15-12, 09:23 PM   #7
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Agreed. Tejay is #7 in GC. I don't seen the peloton letting #7 get away in a break in the last half of the tour. If he's strong enough to ride away solo with the whole peloton chasing him, then let's see it. Or maybe only Liquigas-Cannondale, Lotto-Belisol, Radioshack-Nissan, Astana, Europcar, and FDJ-Bigmat would be motivated to chase him down.
Those teams have more to gain by watching Sky burn up their team in a chase and then attack late. Of course, maybe Sky has the balls to not chase and see the others sweat.
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Old 07-16-12, 07:19 AM   #8
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Those teams have more to gain by watching Sky burn up their team in a chase and then attack late. Of course, maybe Sky has the balls to not chase and see the others sweat.
Tejay's no threat to Sky until he gets 4+ minutes ahead, and then the threat is only to Froome. The other GC teams are not united against Sky -- before Tejay got 4 minutes they'd chase to protect their riders' positions in GC before Sky even had to do much to help.
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Old 07-16-12, 08:54 AM   #9
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Teejay should have dumped Evans after Stage 1.
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Old 07-16-12, 08:58 AM   #10
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TJ was the man to help cadel in the mountains, in a matter of fact in the 1st mountain stages tejay was dropped big time and since the race is really too long teams just stick to the plan because you never know what it could happen. Teejay is riding better, cadel is riding the same, the problem is that sky is riding too good.

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Teejay should have dumped Evans after Stage 1.
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Old 07-16-12, 10:21 AM   #11
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Actually, you can put TeJay up in a break but still be racing for Cadel. The idea being to wear down Sky so Cadel can then attack. As it is, Sky is too strong and they need to be pressured. Of course, if it fails, so to speak, and TeJay ended up moving in front of Cadel that wouldn't be good. Would certainly confuse Sky though as they would then need to watch them both.
Wrong danger.

Someone has already pointed out that Tejay is all Evans has in the Mountians. Right now Evans is sitting 4th and is better in a TT than Niballi.

The danger is Tejay makes the break, they chase hard to catch him and when they do he is dropped. Either then or later Evans gets put in difficulty and all chances for a podium was gone.

The idea is good. However it is just too risky. It would be a much better option if they had a couple more climbers or if Evans was far enough back that a podium spot was looking unlikely.
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Old 07-16-12, 11:31 AM   #12
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If by some miracle Tejay got away, Sky would use Knees to pull him back, maybe Rogers if Van Garderen was having a really good day, and still have Porte, Froome, and Wiggins to counter Cadel's attack.
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Old 07-16-12, 11:45 AM   #13
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^Lol.

I realize they wouldn't let such a break form. However, once formed they might let TeJay (or another such rider) to try and bridge.
There's no difference between letting the break go or letting a bridge go. It's not going to happen with Tejay. Today's stage was a good illustration of how long it takes for an acceptable break to be formed.
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Old 07-16-12, 03:37 PM   #14
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With the peleton sleeping today (after 60K or so) it would have been interesting to see someone, anyone, try and attack. Although, maybe they were all burned out from the first 60K. TeJay actually alluded to that in an interview.
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