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-   -   Vuelta Stage 20: On which climb will Horner make his move on the red jersey? (http://www.bikeforums.net/professional-cycling-fans/912631-vuelta-stage-20-climb-will-horner-make-his-move-red-jersey.html)

xfimpg 09-12-13 07:07 PM

Vuelta Stage 20: On which climb will Horner make his move on the red jersey?
 
Vuelta Stage 20: On which climb will Horner make his move on the red jersey?

MinnMan 09-12-13 08:19 PM

He'll go for whatever opportunity he finds - if he has the opportunity, he'll attack on either. Nibali has faded on these final climbs several times now.

bruin11 09-12-13 08:35 PM

He won't attack until the final climb. Kind of crazy to try a long distance attack before then.

jyl 09-12-13 08:44 PM

He will have his team burn their matches in climbs 1-3, so that the GC group arrives at climb 4 as tired as possible. I think that is what they did in today's stage.

I worry, though, how Horner copes with the super steep grades, like >20%. I vaguely recall reading where someone, maybe he himself, said those weren't his strong suit. I know earlier in the race he mentioned having a hard time following the initial accelerations by Purito and Valverde. I wonder if he and his team haven't learned that they have to do as much damage to everyone's legs as possible before the final climb, to weaken those accelerations. Horner's weapon seems to be not a sudden sharp acceleration, but the ability to steadily push the pace and hold it high. Admittedly I haven't been able to watch all the stages, maybe I've missed his 0-60 moves.

Caretaker 09-13-13 03:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jyl (Post 16060184)
He will have his team burn their matches in climbs 1-3, so that the GC group arrives at climb 4 as tired as possible. I think that is what they did in today's stage.

I worry, though, how Horner copes with the super steep grades, like >20%. I vaguely recall reading where someone, maybe he himself, said those weren't his strong suit. I know earlier in the race he mentioned having a hard time following the initial accelerations by Purito and Valverde. I wonder if he and his team haven't learned that they have to do as much damage to everyone's legs as possible before the final climb, to weaken those accelerations. Horner's weapon seems to be not a sudden sharp acceleration, but the ability to steadily push the pace and hold it high. Admittedly I haven't been able to watch all the stages, maybe I've missed his 0-60 moves.

18, 19, 20, 21% didn't seem to cause him any problems on the final kms. of stage 18 where he crossed the line 25 seconds ahead of Nibali. All these seconds were gained over the toughest gradients.

Horner may not have to make a move on stage 20. If he has a lead of 20 seconds after stage 19 he will be able to just shadow Nibali.

TallRider 09-13-13 07:33 AM

Horner doesn't have the sprint gear on super-steep climbs, but he has a higher sustained gear. And the Angrilu is plenty long for sustained to beat out sprint punch.

Horner won't attack until the final climb. It would be stupid to attack earlier, because Nibali is one of the best descenders in the peloton, and Horner is not. Plus an earlier attack would be risky, and Horner is very close to the lead and doesn't need to take risks because he's been climbing better than everyone else including Nibali.

He may have his team keep the pace high on the earlier climbs, as jyl points out, so that the riders arrive at the Angrilu already tired.

But as caretaker says, Horner may (perhaps probably) be already in the lead after stage 19. He wouldn't need to attack, but he still might raise the pace toward the end of the Angrilu and gain more time.

xfimpg 09-13-13 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TallRider (Post 16061017)
But as caretaker says, Horner may (perhaps probably) be already in the lead after stage 19. He wouldn't need to attack, but he still might raise the pace toward the end of the Angrilu and gain more time.

I think Horner will need to attack on the Angliru to get more time between himself and Nibali because Nibali has the ability to outsprint him - think of the that last couple of Kms, so 3 seconds won't be enough.

Either way, it's going to be gangbusters!

MinnMan 09-13-13 09:02 PM

If they are still within seconds of each other, could there be any actual racing during stage 20?

TallRider 09-13-13 10:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xfimpg (Post 16063764)
I think Horner will need to attack on the Angliru to get more time between himself and Nibali because Nibali has the ability to outsprint him - think of the that last couple of Kms, so 3 seconds won't be enough.
Either way, it's going to be gangbusters!

I'm looking forward to seeing the stage, but Horner will probably make more time on Nibali without having to really attack.

colombo357 09-14-13 12:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xfimpg (Post 16063764)
I think Horner will need to attack on the Angliru to get more time between himself and Nibali because Nibali has the ability to outsprint him - think of the that last couple of Kms, so 3 seconds won't be enough.

Doesn't matter. Nibali doesn't have the ability to separate himself from the peloton, and the peleton will come in with the same time. 3 seconds is enough.

Caretaker 09-14-13 02:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by colombo357 (Post 16064205)
Doesn't matter. Nibali doesn't have the ability to separate himself from the peloton, and the peleton will come in with the same time. 3 seconds is enough.

The peloton will fracture on the final climb. Three seconds isn't enough today. It might be tomorrow.

xfimpg 09-14-13 06:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by colombo357 (Post 16064205)
Doesn't matter. Nibali doesn't have the ability to separate himself from the peloton, and the peleton will come in with the same time. 3 seconds is enough.

.
It does matter. 3 seconds isn't enough to cover a mechanical breakdown.

TallRider 09-14-13 01:09 PM

the stage panned out as I expected, with Nibali bravely trying to make time, Horner patiently riding his pace and knowing he has better legs, and eventually riding away from Nibali. Chapeau!

xfimpg 09-14-13 02:02 PM

Did you see the look on Fulsang's face when Nibali decided to attack Horner in the last few Kms? It was like "Hey man, did I ride all the way up here for nothing???"


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