Tricross as investment
 

I know this sounds kind of nuts. But anyone considering buying a Tricross as an investment and price hedge? They've had huge price jumps on the order of 25% every year lately since about 2006. At this rate, I don't think I'd ever be able to afford one again. LBS says Specialized is reporting dramatic increases in material costs and parts shipping charges as the cause.

But then just like milk and groceries, everything's going up.

That one brand isn't the only one going up. Like you said, everything is going up, especially metals. I've heard that x-mart type bikes are becoming more sought after by theves, not for the bike itself, but for the salvage potential.

Funny how the price of everything depends on the cost of oil.

From what I can tell, the second you roll out of the store with a bike, it loses at least 50% of its value. So "investment," no way.

As far as "price hedge," that's a bit more complicated. If you actually trash or replace your cross bike(s) on a regular basis, and you have the storage space, maybe that will work out. However, you are now introducing an opportunity cost, e.g. "what else can I do with the money I spent on that bike?" E.g. put it in a savings account or into a stock, that may appreciate at close to the same rate as the corresponding price increases in the Tricross.

It also sounds a little odd to me that you believe you can spend $1300 and up now for a bike that you won't touch for several years, but do not believe you will be able to spend $1500 and up a few years from now. ;)

To the last, a couple points.

Why do I see used 2-3 year old Tricross's selling for close to their original retail on Craigslist and as often reported on this board? I don't think the 50% rule holds up anymore with high-demand limited-production bikes, as it does to driving most cars out of the show room. I know bicycles are a different matter, but when have we seen car prices increase by 25% per year like this?

As for putting this money into the stock market instead... well, enough said.

Secondly, the way things are going, spending $1300 now will likely require $2000 for the same brand/model in a few years, not $1500. If someone planned on buying again in a few years, that would be a huge savings.

The big negative to this idea is that technology advances and one would be locking themselves into design history despite the cost savings. Afterall, who'd want to pay a premium price now for a used Raleigh Grand Prix of the late 70's, which was considered state-of-the-art and an enduring classic then? (I think I just talked myself out of this point of view here.)

But I sense a few Tricross fans here own more than one. Why is that?

I can agree with most of these points.

EBay and Craigslist are an enigma. Where else can you see people pay more for something that what you can buy new? Bikes I've seen go for near the new price mainly because it's exactly what someone is looking for.

If you're talking about technology advances, look at the 9 speed system. You can still buy bikes today with 9 speeds. That came out like 10 years ago. Some things don't change that much over time.

Why do people own more than one Tricross? I had two myself, but sold one. Why did I have two? I like them so much that I wanted one for commuting and road riding and the other for racing. Turns out Specialized changed the geometry from the 2006 model and now I'm not happy with them. If my 2006 model got stolen, I'd go out and buy the exact same bike. Same year. Probably pay more than the 50% retail for it also.

knobster, exactly. I couldn't agree more.

Remember: the prices you see on Craig's List are generally the asking price, not necessarily the actual sale price. I've bought and sold a bunch of stuff on Craig's List and I've never paid asking price, nor sold at the price my ad requested. Everybody on Craig's List, it seems, wants to feel like they're a great negotiator or have found the deal of a lifetime. I price my items a bit high and "allow" the buyer to negotiate me down to a more reasonable price...

I would expect a bike to lose 30% of it's value during the first year and 50-60% during the second year. Rather than buying a new bike as an investment, I'd keep your money in your pocket and buy a late-model used bike when you need a "new" one.

Yeah, I don't think it would work as an "investment." If you have the money, and really like the bike, you could hoard a bunch of them, but it's not really a financially beneficial move.

As for Craigslist, I put my Raleigh on craigs this weekend in anticipation of scoring a great deal on a 'cross bike. It retails at $529, I bought it for just under $500, and listed it for $425 negotiable. I had 5 people interested in 2 days. I don't know how much it would have been negotiated down to because I ended up not getting the 'cross bike. But people were so enthusiastic about it, I was almost tempted to sell it anyway for some quick money.

That's like buying a car as an "investment".

Just give your money to me and save yourself the storage space.